NBM v4.0 Weather Elements - MDL
NBM V4.0 SURFACE WEATHER ELEMENTS
Surface Weather Elements | CO | AK | PR | HI | GU | OC | Definition |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TEMPERATURE | |||||||
MaxT | x | x | x | x | 12z to 06z except in Guam 18z to 12z; dynamically weighted mean | ||
MinT | x | x | x | x | 00z to 18z except in Guam 06z to 00z; dynamically weighted mean | ||
MaxT SD | x | x | x | x | 12z to 06z except in Guam 18z to 12z; SD from a subset of about 25 inputs | ||
MinT SD | x | x | x | x | 00z to 18z except in Guam 06z to 00z; SD from a subset of about 25 inputs | ||
PMaxT | x | 12z to 06z except in Guam 18z to 12z; percentiles from 1-99 with up to 171 members | |||||
PMinT | x | 00z to 18z except in Guam 06z to 00z; percentiles from 1-99 with up to 171 members | |||||
PMaxT Mean | x | 12z to 06z except in Guam 18z to 12z; true mean from up to 171 members | |||||
PMinT Mean | x | 00z to 18z except in Guam 06z to 00z; true mean from up to 171 members | |||||
PMaxT SD | x | 12z to 06z except in Guam 18z to 12z; SD from up to 171 members | |||||
PMinT SD | x | 00z to 18z except in Guam06z to 00z; SD from up to 171 members | |||||
Temp | x | x | x | x | x | x | Top of hour value; hourly through 36 hours, then 3 hourly to 192 hours, then 6 hourly to 264. |
Temp SD | x | x | x | x | x | SD from subset of about 25 inputs | |
AppT | x | x | x | x | Derived parameter from Temp, Td, and wind speed | ||
PRECIPITATION | |||||||
QPF01 | x | x | x | x | x | Hourly rainfall or melted liquid equivalent to 264 hours | |
QPF06 | x | x | x | x | x | Expert weighted mean | |
PQPF06 | x | x | x | x | Derived from Quantile Mapping and Dressing; percentiles from 1-99 with up to 171 members | ||
PQPF12 | x | x | x | x | Derived from Quantile Mapping and Dressing; percentiles from 1-99 with up to 171 members | ||
PQPF24 | x | x | x | x | Derived from Quantile Mapping and Dressing; percentiles from 1-99 with up to 171 members | ||
PQPF06 Mean | x | x | x | x | Mean value from up to 171 members | ||
PQPF12 Mean | x | x | x | x | Mean value from up to 171 members | ||
PQPF24 Mean | x | x | x | x | Mean value from up to 171 members | ||
PoP01 | x | x | x | x | x | Expert weighted mean to 36 hours | |
PoP06 | x | x | x | x | x | Expert weighted mean | |
PoP12 | x | x | x | x | x | Expert weighted mean through 36 hours | |
QMD PoP06 | x | x | x | x | Output from Quantile Mapping and Dressing without expert weights in short term | ||
QMD PoP12 | x | x | x | x | Output from Quantile Mapping and Dressing without expert weights in short term | ||
Wx | x | x | Predominant Weather derived field | ||||
Duration | x | x | x | Number of hours within a 12 hour period that at least 0.01" of QPF is forecast | |||
PROBABILITIES OF SPECIFIC AMOUNTS | |||||||
ProbMaxT (<0F, >100F, etc) | x | Threshold probabilities from 171 member ensemble valid 12z to 06z | |||||
ProbMinT | x | Threshold probabilities from 171 member ensemble valid 00z to 18z | |||||
ProbQPF24 (>0.10, >1.00", etc) | x | x | x | x | Threshold probabilities from 171 member ensemble | ||
HUMIDITY | |||||||
Td | x | x | x | x | x | Top of hour value; hourly through 36 hours, then 3 hourly to 192 hours, then 6 hourly to 264. | |
Td SD | x | x | x | x | x | SD from subset of about 25 inputs | |
RH | x | x | x | x | x | Derived from Temp and Td | |
MaxRH | x | x | x | x | Derived from highest hourly/3 hourly/6 hourly value | ||
MinRH | x | x | x | x | Derived from lowest hourly/3 hourly/6 hourly value | ||
PRESSURE | |||||||
PMSLP | x | 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles | |||||
PMSLP Spread | x | Standard Deviation from ~100 member multi-model ensemble |
NBM V4.0 AVIATION WEATHER ELEMENTS
Aviation Weather Elements | CO | AK | PR | HI | GU | OC | Definition |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WIND | |||||||
10-m Speed | x | x | x | x | x | x | Top of hour sustained value; hourly through 36 hours, then 3 hourly to 192 hours, then 6 hourly to 264. |
P10m-Speed | x | Top of hour sustained value 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles; 3 hourly temporal resolution | |||||
30-m Speed | x | x | x | x | x | x | Top of hour sustained value; hourly through 36 hours, then 3 hourly to 192 hours, then 6 hourly to 264. |
80-m Speed | x | x | x | x | x | x | Top of hour sustained value; hourly through 36 hours, then 3 hourly to 192 hours, then 6 hourly to 264. |
10-m Gust | x | x | x | x | x | x | Top of the hour gust value; hourly through 36 hours, then 3 hourly to 192 hours, then 6 hourly to 264. |
10-m Direction | x | x | x | x | x | x | Top of the hour value |
10-m Speed SD | x | x | x | x | x | Standard Deviation of ~100 member multi-model ensemble | |
10-m Gust SD | x | x | x | x | Standard Deviation of ~100 member multi-model ensemble | ||
30-m Directon | x | Top of the hour value | |||||
80-m Direction | x | Top of the hour value | |||||
LLWS Height | x | x | x | x | Intended to provide Low Level Wind Shear guidance (up to 2,000 feet AGL) for WFO TAFs | ||
LLWS Speed | x | x | x | x | Intended to provide Low Level Wind Shear guidance (up to 2,000 feet AGL) for WFO TAFs | ||
LLWS Direction | x | x | x | x | Intended to provide Low Level Wind Shear guidance (up to 2,000 feet AGL) for WFO TAFs | ||
Low-Level Turbulence | x | x | x | x | Low level and mountain wave induced turbulence guidance | ||
Ellrod Index | x | x | x | x | High level turbulence guidance for roughly the 300-200 mb layer | ||
CLOUDS AND OBSTRUCTIONS | |||||||
Cover | x | x | x | x | x | Mean Sky Cover 0-100% | |
Cover SD | x | x | x | x | x | SD from subset of about 25 inputs | |
Cig | x | x | x | x | x | Ceiling from GLMP through 36 hours, then blend of NAM MOS and GFS MOS 39-78 hours | |
Vis | x | x | x | x | x | x | Visibility from GLMP through 36 hours, then blend of NAM MOS and GFS MOS 39-78 hours |
Lowest Base Height | x | x | x | x | x | Lowest cloud base regardless of ceiling height (could be FEW or SCT layer) | |
PROBABILITIES OF SPECIFIC AMOUNTS | |||||||
ProbCig | x | Threshold Probability of VLIFR (0 or 100), LIFR (200-400), IFR (500-900), and MVFR (1,000-3,000) ceilings | |||||
ProbVis | x | Threshold Probability of VLIFR (0), LIFR (1/4-3/4), IFR (1-3), and MVFR (3-5) visibilities | |||||
ProbCWASP | x | Probability of 50-64 (Marginal), 65-69 (Slight), 70-74 (Enhanced), 75-84 (Moderate), or 85-100 (High) Values of Craven Wiedenefeld Aggregate Severe Parameter: designed to detect environments favorable for significant hail and significant tornadoes | |||||
CONVECTION | |||||||
18 dbZ Echo Tops | x | x | x | x | Top of the hour height above mean sea level of highest light precipitation echoes (hourly 1-36 hours) | ||
PoT01 | x | x | x | x | x | 1 hour expert weighted probability of thunder through 36 hours | |
PoT03 | x | x | x | x | x | 3 hour expert weighted probability of thunder through 192 hours | |
PoT06 | x | x | x | x | x | 6 hour expert weighted probability of thunder through 192 hours | |
PoT12 | x | x | x | x | x | 12 hour expert weighted probability of thunder through 192 hours | |
Max Reflectivity | x | x | x | x | Maximum reflectivity in the column over the past hour in dBZ (hourly 1-36 hours) | ||
VIL | x | x | x | x | Top of the hour vertically integrated liquid (hourly 1-36 hours) | ||
SBCAPE | x | x | x | x | Expert weighted mean surface based convectively available potential energy | ||
SBCAPE SD | x | x | x | x | SD from subset of about 25 inputs | ||
CWASP | x | Expert weighted mean of Craven Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe Parameter (75% of EF2+ tornadoes have CWASP of 65+) | |||||
PCWASP | x | 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentile of CWASP using roughly 25 inputs |
NBM V4.0 FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS
Fire Weather Elements | CO | AK | PR | HI | GU | OC | Definition |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
POTENTIAL | |||||||
Haines Index | x | x | x | x | Calculation of six hour maximum value of Haines Index based on NBM unified terrain elevation (Low Haines up to 999 feet MSL, Mid Haines 1,000-2,999 MSL, and High Haines 3,000+ MSL) | ||
Fosberg Index | x | x | x | x | 6 hour maximum Fosberg Fire Weather Index using maximum temperature, maximum wind speeds, and minimum relative humidity | ||
Mixing Height | x | x | x | x | Combination of PBL height and modified Stull Method using 0.5K warm bubble (height above ground level) | ||
Solar Radiation | x | x | x | x | Incoming solar radiation | ||
MaxRH | x | Maximum Relative Humidity from 0000 to 1800 UTC | |||||
MinRH | x | Minimum Relative Humidity from 1200 to 0600 UTC | |||||
WIND | |||||||
Transport WindSpd | x | x | x | Mean wind speed in the layer defined by mixing height | |||
Transport WindDir | x | x | x | Mean wind direction in the layer defined by mixing height | |||
Ventilation Rate | x | x | x | The product of the mixing height and the transport wind speed |
NBM V4.0 WINTER WEATHER ELEMENTS
Winter Weather Elements | CO | AK | PR | HI | GU | OC | Definition |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXPECTED AMOUNT | |||||||
SnowAmt01 | x | x | 1 hour snow accumulation through 36 hours | ||||
SnowAmt06 | x | x | 6 hour snow accumulation through 264 hours | ||||
IceAccum01 | x | x | 1 hour flat ice accumulation using FRAM technique through 36 hours | ||||
IceAccum06 | x | x | 6 hour flat ice accumulation using FRAM technique through 264 hours | ||||
ACCUMULATION PRECENTILES (INCHES) | |||||||
SnowP24 (5th, 10th, 25th, etc) | x | x | 24 hour snow accumulation percentiles | ||||
SnowP48 | x | x | 48 hour snow accumulation percentiles | ||||
SnowP72 | x | x | 72 hour snow accumulation percentiles | ||||
IceP24 | x | x | 24 hour flat ice accumulation (FRAM) percentiles | ||||
IceP48 | x | x | 48 hour flat ice accumulation (FRAM) percentiles | ||||
IceP72 | x | x | 72 hour flat ice accumulation (FRAM) percentiles | ||||
PROBABILITIES OF SPECIFIC AMOUNTS (>1", >12" etc) | |||||||
ProbSnow24 | x | x | 24 hour threshold probability of exceedance for snow accumulation | ||||
ProbSnow48 | x | x | 48 hour threshold probability of exceedance for snow accumulation | ||||
ProbSnow72 | x | x | 72 hour threshold probability of exceedance for snow accumulation | ||||
ProbIce24 | x | x | 24 hour threshold probability of exceedance for flat ice accumulation (FRAM) | ||||
ProbIce48 | x | x | 48 hour threshold probability of exceedance for flat ice accumulation (FRAM) | ||||
ProbIce72 | x | x | 72 hour threshold probability of exceedance for flat ice accumulation (FRAM) | ||||
Snow or Sleet > 0.25" Liquid Equiv | x | 24 hour probability of liquid equivalent of melted snow and sleet exceeding 0.25" | |||||
PRECIPIATION TYPE (PTYPE) | |||||||
CPType | x | x | Conditional Probability of Snow, Rain, Sleet, or Freezing rain (instantaneous top of hour) | ||||
ProbZZ | x | x | Conditional Probability of sleet refreezing in the near surface cold layer | ||||
Cloud Ice | x | x | Probability of cloud ice present in the vertical column (for snow versus freezing drizzle) | ||||
Frzg Spray | x | x | x | Categorical freezing spray potential | |||
Snow Ratio | x | x | Snow to Liquid Ratio (using combination of Cobb, Roebber, MaxTaloft, and thickness) | ||||
Snow Level | x | x | x | Elevation where the wet bulb temperature reaches 0.5 degrees C | |||
BOURGOUIN ENERGY | |||||||
Negative Energy Near Surface Cold Layer | x | x | Total area under the curve of near surface cold layer (for winter precipitation type) | ||||
Positive Warm Nose Aloft | x | x | Total area under the curve of the elevated warm layer aloft (for winter precipitation type) |
NBM V4.0 MARINE WEATHER ELEMENTS
Marine Weather Elements | CO | AK | PR | HI | GU | OC | Definition |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WATER | |||||||
WaveHgt | x | x | x | x | x | x | Expert weighted mean of significant wave height |
WaveHgtSD | x | x | x | x | x | x | SD calculated from roughly 10 inputs |
SST | x | x | x | Mean top of the hour sea surface temperature | |||
Frzg Spray | x | x | x | Categorical freezing spray potential |