• MDL's staff drive our success!
  • NWS Connect is a web-based application to assist National Weather Service personnel in managing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS). IRIS integrates contact management, observation monitoring, impact management and alerting, and the generation of weather reports into a single application to assist NWS forecasters in providing effective IDSS to core partners and manage community engagement.
  • The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance.
  • The Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) system provides objective probabilistic and deterministic forecast guidance of sensible weather with a focus on guidance for aviation forecasting. The LAMP forecasts are available at stations in the United States (US). Gridded LAMP guidance for a number of forecast elements, including convection, lightning, ceiling height, and visibility, is also available on a 2.5-km grid covering the contiguous US.
  • Model Output Statistics (MOS) is a type of statistical post-processing, a class of techniques used to improve numerical weather models' ability to forecast by relating model outputs to observational or additional model data.
  • The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) is a suite of gridded forecasts of sensible weather elements (e.g., cloud cover, maximum temperature).
  • Storm Surge is a change in normal tide levels caused by winds and atmospheric pressure associated with a storm.
  • The Verification Team of the Digital Forecast Services Division develops and maintains systems to collect and assess the quality of a variety of NWS public and aviation forecasts, including forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database.
  • Decision Support: The synthesis, display, and manipulation of data and guidance from various sources to aid the Weather Forecast Offices (WFO), River Forecast Centers and National Centers forecasters and other users in interpreting the wealth of information available at the WFO.
  • The Probabilistic Forecast Visualization effort kicked off in 2017 with the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Viewer.
  • Rip Currents are powerful, channeled currents of water flowing away from shore.

Welcome

Welcome to the Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)! MDL conducts applied research and development for the improvement of diagnostic and prognostic weather information; data depiction and utilization; warning and forecast product preparation and dissemination; forecast evaluation; and impact-based decision support services. Projects involve physical, dynamical, and statistical applications and tools implemented on NWS operational systems. Emphasis is placed on integrated suites of guidance and products for Weather Forecast Offices, River Forecast Centers, and National Centers, and NWS Core Partners.

Latest News

NBMv4.3: Note that the intrusion of stronger inland wind speeds in southeast Georgia, southern South Carolina, southern Alabama and Mississippi, and the western portions of the Florida Panhandle has been muted and conforms more to reality.

National Blend of Models (NBM) Upgraded to Version 4.3

May 27, 2025

On May 27, 2025, NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) upgraded its operational product, the National Blend of Models (NBM) — a nationally-consistent and calibrated suite of forecast products generated by combining numerical weather prediction and post-processed data. This upgrade (version 4.3) primarily focused on improvements to the NBM Tropical Cyclone Feature-Matched wind speed product and incorporated updates provided by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to the probabilistic severe weather products.

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P-Surge simulation from September 10-12, 1992 during Hurricane Iniki

Probabilistic Storm Surge (P-Surge) Upgraded to Version 3.1

May 20, 2025

On May 20, 2025, NOAA NWS upgraded its operational Probabilistic storm Surge (P-Surge) model to version 3.1. P-Surge brings a probabilistic approach to the modeling of storm surge, and is run on a case-by-case basis in advance of hurricanes and tropical storms that may impact the Atlantic and Gulf coastlines of the contiguous U.S., Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and now, with the most recent upgrade, the coastlines of Hawaii.

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This image shows an example GLMP forecast for the probability of ceiling height <= 3000 ft from the 0000 UTC cycle on October 10, 2024, valid for the 15-minute period 0330-0345 UTC

MDL's Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) and Gridded LAMP (GLMP) Upgraded at NWS

Dec 16, 2024

An upgrade to the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics (MOS) Program (LAMP) and Gridded LAMP (GLMP) systems was implemented into NWS operations on Monday, September 30, 2024.  LAMP is a statistical system which provides forecast guidance for sensible weather elements  and updates the Global Forecast System (GFS)-based MOS on an hourly basis (every 15 minutes for C&V elements). The guidance is produced on the NOAA/NWS/NCEP Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputer System (WCOSS) and is disseminated centrally from NCEP.

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The primary goal of NWS Connect is to enhance the capability of NWS offices to deliver high-quality IDSS to partners consistently across the country.

NWS Connect Initial Operating Capabilities Released

Aug 01, 2024

We are excited to announce the release of NWS Connect, marking the first iteration of many to come! NWS Connect is a vital element of Ken's 10 Probabilistic IDSS (Impact-based Decision Support Services) Initiative. This empowers NWS core partners, such as emergency personnel and public safety officials, to make informed decisions when weather, water, and climate events impact the lives and livelihood of the American people.

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