GFS MOS 2009 Refresh Evaluation

New MOS forecast equations based on output from NCEP's Global Forecast System (GFS) Model have been developed for selected weather elements: Max and Min Temperature, 2-m Temperature, Dewpoint Temperature, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Wind Gust, 24-h Snowfall Amount, Precipitation Type, Ceiling Height, and Sky Cover.

Verification Results - Year-round Elements

Element	Cool Season Plots (Images)	Warm Season Plots (Images)
Maximum Temperature	Bias - All Sites Bias - CONUS Bias - Alaska MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska	Bias - All Sites Bias - CONUS Bias - Alaska MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska
Minimum Temperature	Bias - All Sites Bias - CONUS Bias - Alaska MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska	Bias - All Sites Bias - CONUS Bias - Alaska MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska
2-m Temperature	Bias - All Sites Bias - CONUS Bias - Alaska MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska	Bias - All Sites Bias - CONUS Bias - Alaska MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska
Dewpoint Temperature	Bias - All Sites Bias - CONUS Bias - Alaska MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska	Bias - All Sites Bias - CONUS Bias - Alaska MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska
Wind Speed	MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska Heidke Skill Score - All Sites Heidke Skill Score - CONUS Heidke Skill Score - Alaska	MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska Heidke Skill Score - All Sites Heidke Skill Score - CONUS Heidke Skill Score - Alaska
Wind Direction	MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska Cumulative Rel. Freq. - All Sites Cumulative Rel. Freq. - CONUS Cumulative Rel. Freq. - Alaska	MAE - All Sites MAE - CONUS MAE - Alaska Cumulative Rel. Freq. - All Sites Cumulative Rel. Freq. - CONUS Cumulative Rel. Freq. - Alaska
Ceiling Height	Heidke Skill Score - All Sites	Heidke Skill Score - All Sites
Sky Cover	Heidke Skill Score - CONUS	Heidke Skill Score - CONUS
Wind Gust	Probability of Detection (Gust Event) - All Sites Threat Score (Gust Event) - All Sites Threat Score (Gust Intensity ≥ 38 knots) - All Sites False Alarm Ratio (Gust Event) - All Sites Heidke Skill Score (Gust Intensities) - All Sites	Probability of Detection (Gust Event) - All Sites Threat Score (Gust Event) - All Sites Threat Score (Gust Intensity ≥ 38 knots) - All Sites False Alarm Ratio (Gust Event) - All Sites Heidke Skill Score (Gust Intensities) - All Sites

Verification Results - Cool Season Only Elements

Element	Cool Season Only Plots (Images)
24-h Snowfall Amount	Bias 06Z Window - All Sites Bias 06Z Window - CONUS Bias 06Z Window - Alaska Bias 18Z Window - All Sites Bias 18Z Window - CONUS Bias 18Z Window - Alaska Heidke SS Imp. Snow Cat. 06Z Window - All Sites Heidke SS Imp. Snow Cat. 18Z Window - All Sites P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - All Sites P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - CONUS P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - Alaska P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - All Sites P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - CONUS P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - Alaska
Precipitation Type	Bias (MAV) - CONUS Bias (MAV) - Alaska Heidke Skill Score (MAV) - CONUS Heidke Skill Score (MAV) - Alaska Heidke Skill Score (MEX) - CONUS Heidke Skill Score (MEX) - Alaska P-Score (MAV) - CONUS P-Score (MAV) - Alaska P-Score (MEX) - CONUS P-Score (MEX) - Alaska

Element

Cool Season Only Plots (Images)

24-h Snowfall Amount

Bias 06Z Window - All Sites
Bias 06Z Window - CONUS
Bias 06Z Window - Alaska

Bias 18Z Window - All Sites
Bias 18Z Window - CONUS
Bias 18Z Window - Alaska

Heidke SS Imp. Snow Cat. 06Z Window - All Sites
Heidke SS Imp. Snow Cat. 18Z Window - All Sites

P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - All Sites
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - CONUS
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - Alaska

P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - All Sites
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - CONUS
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - Alaska

Precipitation Type

Bias (MAV) - CONUS
Bias (MAV) - Alaska

Heidke Skill Score (MAV) - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score (MAV) - Alaska
Heidke Skill Score (MEX) - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score (MEX) - Alaska

P-Score (MAV) - CONUS
P-Score (MAV) - Alaska
P-Score (MEX) - CONUS
P-Score (MEX) - Alaska

GFS MOS Refresh Evaluation 2009 - MDL

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GFS MOS 2009 Refresh Evaluation

Verification Results - Year-round Elements

Verification Results - Cool Season Only Elements

MOS