GFS MOS 2009 Refresh Evaluation

New MOS forecast equations based on output from NCEP's Global Forecast System (GFS) Model have been developed for selected weather elements: Max and Min Temperature, 2-m Temperature, Dewpoint Temperature, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Wind Gust, 24-h Snowfall Amount, Precipitation Type, Ceiling Height, and Sky Cover.

Verification Results - Year-round Elements

Element Cool Season Plots (Images) Warm Season Plots (Images)
Maximum Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Minimum Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
2-m Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Dewpoint Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Wind Speed
MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Heidke Skill Score - All Sites
Heidke Skill Score - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Heidke Skill Score - All Sites
Heidke Skill Score - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score - Alaska
Wind Direction
MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Cumulative Rel. Freq. - All Sites
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - CONUS
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Cumulative Rel. Freq. - All Sites
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - CONUS
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - Alaska
Ceiling Height Heidke Skill Score - All Sites Heidke Skill Score - All Sites
Sky Cover Heidke Skill Score - CONUS Heidke Skill Score - CONUS
Wind Gust
Probability of Detection (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Intensity ≥ 38 knots) - All Sites

False Alarm Ratio (Gust Event) - All Sites

Heidke Skill Score (Gust Intensities) - All Sites

Probability of Detection (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Intensity ≥ 38 knots) - All Sites

False Alarm Ratio (Gust Event) - All Sites

Heidke Skill Score (Gust Intensities) - All Sites

 

Verification Results - Cool Season Only Elements

Element Cool Season Only Plots (Images)
24-h Snowfall Amount


Bias 06Z Window - All Sites
Bias 06Z Window - CONUS
Bias 06Z Window - Alaska

Bias 18Z Window - All Sites
Bias 18Z Window - CONUS
Bias 18Z Window - Alaska

Heidke SS Imp. Snow Cat. 06Z Window - All Sites
Heidke SS Imp. Snow Cat. 18Z Window - All Sites

P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - All Sites
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - CONUS
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 06Z Window - Alaska

P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - All Sites
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - CONUS
P-Score Imp. Snow prob_ 18Z Window - Alaska

Precipitation Type
Bias (MAV) - CONUS
Bias (MAV) - Alaska

Heidke Skill Score (MAV) - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score (MAV) - Alaska
Heidke Skill Score (MEX) - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score (MEX) - Alaska

P-Score (MAV) - CONUS
P-Score (MAV) - Alaska
P-Score (MEX) - CONUS
P-Score (MEX) - Alaska

MOS