Public Notices

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Headers

P-Surge v3.2 Header Scheme (approved: October 24, 2025).  P-Surge v3.2 Headers is a complete list of WMO Headers (based on the scheme) for P-Surge products available over the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN) and NOAAPORT in GRIB2 format.

P-ETSS v1.0 Header Scheme (approved: May 24, 2017)

Service Change Notices (SCN), Technical Implementation Notices (TIN), Public Notification Statements (PNS)

For a complete listing of SCN, TIN, PNS, and other change notifications from NWS, please see:
https://www.weather.gov/notification/ or https://www.weather.gov/notification/archive (for older notices)

2026

PNS26-06: Jan 22, 2026 - Soliciting Comments on changes to P-Surge.  Specifically: (a) replace underlying computational grid for Puerto Rico, (b) adjust how interpolation methods for intensity and size handle landfall, (c) update error statistics, and (d) experimentally generate SHEF output at stations.

2025

Nov 10, 2025 - P-ETSS v1.4.4 - Correcting an inconsistency between the 00Z/12Z and 06Z/18Z P-ETSS NAEFS station outputs caused by failing to skip the initial 0-6 hour forecast period when using the 6-hour delayed CMC 00Z/12Z GEPS guidance at 06Z/18Z for station output.  Also, updating station output at Kipnuk, AK to not use erroneous anomaly calculations caused by limitations with the observations.

SCN25-57: Jul 30, 2025 - P-ETSS v1.4.3 - Domain upgrades for: Seattle, WA, San Francisco, CA, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Fort Myers, FL, and Kotzebue, AK; upgrades to the tidal constituents used for the West Coast; corrected an inadvertent two-degree westward shift in the wind interpolation for the East Coast (8/28/2025 11:53 email); bug fixes; and various updates to guidance at stations.  Removes Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) and P-ETSS data from the National Digital Guidance Database. - Effective Sep 2, 2025

SCN25-31_aaa: Apr 25, 2025 - P-Surge v3.1.2 - Creation of P-Surge products for Hawaii, wave calculations made more efficiently, and discontinuation of "> 0 feet AGL" products - Effective May 20, 2025 (from Apr 29, 2025)

PNS25-24: Apr 14, 2025 - Soliciting Comments on proposed upgrades to the P-ETSS v1.4 model through May 14, 2025.  Please see here for a presentation on the P-ETSS v1.4 verification scores.  Please see here for specific stations. referenced by the PNS.

Mar 28, 2025 - P-ETSS v1.3.9 - Corrected a header for the stations in the Gulf of America - Effective Mar 28, 2025

SCN25-15: Mar 5, 2025 - P-ETSS v1.3.8 - Updated naming conventions for Gulf - Effective Mar 12, 2025

Mar 11, 2025 - P-Surge v3.0.8 - Updated naming conventions for Gulf - Effective Mar 11, 2025

2024

PNS24-76: Dec 18, 2024 - Soliciting Comments on changes to P-Surge.  Specifically, the removal of the probabilities of > 0 feet AGL.

Nov 8, 2024 - P-ETSS v1.3.7 - Correction for an out-of-bounds error in a merge stage - Effective Nov 14, 2024

Jul 22, 2024 - P-Surge v3.0.7 - Corrected the calculation method for cumulative exceedance products to match the correct one used by the cumulative probability products.  Also discontinued sending a coarse PR_VI grid to NHC - Effective Jul 22, 2024

Jun 20, 2024 - P-ETSS v1.3.6 - Re-synchronized the station tidal constituents and station datums; fixed a typo in the "Carolyn Is Golovin Bay, AK" station name; and updated NWSLI for "New London, CT" to "NLHC3" (from "NLNC3") - Effective Jun 20, 2024

SCN24-43: May 22, 2024 - ETSS - Transition ET-Surge operational guidance from "gate" webserver - Effective Jun 10, 2024

2023

Oct 13, 2023 - P-ETSS v1.3.5 - Corrected a mask issue over Delaware / Maryland - Effective Nov 15, 2023

Sep 28, 2023 - P-Surge v3.0.6 - Corrected the wind grid definition within /parm/dta/eok3dta - Effective Oct 11, 2023

SCN23-94: Sep 26, 2023 - P-ETSS v1.3.4 - Correct a SHEF encoding error and several stations in Alaska - Effective Sep 27, 2023.

SCN23-80: Jul 7, 2023 - P-ETSS v1.3 and ETSS v2.5 - Nesting in AK; inclusion of spatially varying bottom friction; Fourier-based post-processing scheme - Effective Aug 15, 2023.

Jul 26, 2023 - P-Surge v3.0.4 - Corrected wave repeatability bug after re-enabling wave energy transfers (v3.0.3 - Jul 7) - Effective Aug 8, 2023

NOAA Press Release: May 2, 2023 - P-Surge v3.0 - Support for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to account for surge, tide, and waves; inclusion of spatially varying bottom friction; and ability to handle two simultaneous storms.

SCN23-46_aaa: Mar 31, 2023 - P-Surge v3.0 - Support for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to account for surge, tide, and waves; inclusion of spatially varying bottom friction; and ability to handle two simultaneous storms - Effective May 2, 2023.  

PNS23-20: Mar 27, 2023 - Soliciting Comments on proposed upgrades to the P-ETSS v1.3 and ETSS v2.5, models through Apr 26, 2023.  Please see here for a presentation on the P-ETSS v1.3 and ETSS 2.5 verification scores.

2022

PNS22-48: Aug 1, 2022 - Soliciting Comments on MDL-maintained P-Surge, P-ETSS, ETSS, and ESTOFS websites

Jun 28, 2022 - P-ETSS v1.2 and ETSS v2.4 - Transitioned P-ETSS and ETSS to WCOSS 2

Jun 28, 2022 - P-Surge v2.10 - Transitioned P-Surge to WCOSS 2

2021

SCN21-81: Sep 8, 2021 - P-ETSS v1.1.5 and ETSS v2.3.6 - Tidal phase correction for two station in Alaska.  Please see here for an explanation.

SCN21-70: Jul 27, 2021 - P-ETSS v1.1.4 and ETSS v2.3.5 - Adjust Palm Beach (PB3) initial water level method.  Please see here for an explanation.

SCN21-41: May 11, 2021 - P-Surge v2.9 - Initialize wind ensemble based on NHC forecast of RMW (vs assuming a constant pressure or RMW).

SCN20-106 Updated: Feb 25, 2021 - P-ETSS v1.1 and ETSS v2.3 - P-ETSS is now 52 members (31 member GEFS + 21 member GEPS).  ETSS includes 1-hr 13 km (vs 3-hr 0.5 degree) GFS.

2020

SCN20-81: Sep 29, 2020 - P-Surge v2.8 - Initialize wind ensemble based on initial size RMW (vs pressure) estimates; also change error groupings from (TS, TD, HU) to (0-50, 50-95, and > 95 kts).

2018

SCN18-36 Updated: Oct 23, 2018 - P-Surge - Dataflow routing change in the NDGD

SCN18-36 Updated: May 7, 2018 - P-Surge v2.7 - Added 90% exceedance; dropped > 21, 22, ..., 25 feet datum products

2017

SCN17-63 Updated: Dec 6, 2017 - P-ETSS v1.0 and ETSS v2.2 - First version of P-ETSS (21 member GEFS).  ETSS - tidal phase shift corrections for CD2, ETP3, AP3; and extend time range to 102-hr (from 96-hr).

SCN17-26 Updated: Apr 18, 2017 - P-Surge v2.6 - Extend forecast to 102-hr (from 78-hr); Allow NHC to run for Sub-Tropical storms, depressions, and Potential/Post Tropical Cyclones; Utilize the high-res South Florida basin.

2015

TIN15-39: Nov 3, 2015 - ETSS v2.1 - Use a new Alaska basin to let water flow through the Bering Straight; include overland calculations of water level inundation based on surge plus tide for all US coastal areas

May 26, 2015 - P-Surge v2.5 - Products on coarser 2.5km grids, Exceedance above datum at 1-hr time steps

TIN15-18: May 19, 2015 - ETSS v2.0 - Overland calculations for East Coast and Gulf of Mexico.

2014

TIN14-31 Amended: Oct 14, 2014 - ETSS v1.5 - Switched to 0.5 degree GFS winds (vs 1 degree); corrected mask for merging Bering Sea; generating 2.5 km CONUS, 3.0 km Alaska grids

TIN14-12: Corrected: Jul 8, 2014 - P-Surge v2.0 - Probabilistic tropical cyclone storm Surge + tide (P-Surge) above datum becomes operational: {probabilities of 2, 3, ... 25 feet, exceedance of 10, 20, ..., 90%} {0 - 78-hr cumulative}.

TIN14-11 Corrected: Jul 8, 2014 - P-Surge v2.0 - Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge + tide Heights (PHISH) becomes operational: {probabilities of 0, 1, 2, ... 20 feet, exceedance of 10, 20, .., 50%} {6-hr cumulative and incremental out to 78 hours}.

2013

PNS 13: Nov 30, 2013 - P-Surge - Soliciting Comments on Experimental Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Tide above Datum

PNS 13: Jul 25, 2013 - P-Surge - Improvements to Experimental Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Height (PHISH) Products

2012

Oct 11, 2012 - ETSS - Transitioned ETSS to WCOSS

2011

SCN11-17: Jun 1, 2011 - P-Surge - 10, 20, 30, ..., 90% surge-only exceedance products become operational.

TIN11-13: Jun 1, 2011 - P-Surge - Probability of > 2, ..., 25 feet surge-only products become operation in the NDGD

2010

TIN10-64: Feb 1, 2011 - ETSS - Replace the Gulf of Mexico grid with higher resolution

PNS 10:  Nov 30, 2010 - P-Surge - Soliciting comments for experimental Probabilistic tropical cyclone storm Surge (P-Surge) exceedance products

2009

PNS 09: Nov 30, 2009 - P-Surge - Soliciting comments for experimental Probabilistic tropical cyclone storm Surge (P-Surge) exceedance products

TIN09-21: Jun 5, 2009 - SDP - SLOSH tropical cyclone storm surge Display Program (SDP) now online

SCN09-11: Jun 1, 2009 - P-Surge - Probability of > 2, ..., 25 feet surge-only products become operational.

2008

TIN08-98: Mar 24, 2009 - P-Surge - Addition of more levels: probability of 11, ..., 25 feet surge-only products

PNS 08 Corrected: Nov 15, 2008 - P-Surge - Soliciting comments for experimental Probabilistic hurricane storm Surge (P-Surge) products and experimental Probabilistic storm surge GRIB2 files on NOAAPort

TIN08-39: Aug 26, 2008 - ETSS - 5km CONUS and 6km Alaska gridded products

SCN08-33: Jun 1, 2008 - P-Surge - Probability of > 5 feet surge-only products become operational.

2007

TIN07-26: Jul 10, 2007 - ETSS - Extend time range to 96-hr (from 48-hr).

Apr 18, 2007 - P-Surge v1.0 - Initial Implementation

2006

PNS 06: May 5 to Nov 15, 2006 - P-Surge - Soliciting comments on experimental Probabilistic hurricane storm Surge (P-Surge) products