Public Notices

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Headers

P-Surge v3.2 Header Scheme (approved: October 24, 2025).  P-Surge v3.2 Headers is a complete list of WMO Headers (based on the scheme) for P-Surge products available over the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN) and NOAAPORT in GRIB2 format.

P-ETSS v1.0 Header Scheme (approved: May 24, 2017)

Service Change Notices (SCN), Technical Implementation Notices (TIN), Public Notification Statements (PNS)

For a complete listing of SCN, TIN, PNS, and other change notifications from NWS, please see:
https://www.weather.gov/notification/ or https://www.weather.gov/notification/archive (for older notices)

2026

Jul 22, 2026: P-Surge v3.2.1 - When the Penv program (statistics post-processing stage) encounters water levels < -20.5 feet or > 36.0 feet in the ensemble members, it prematurely exits a "remove mask" routine which corrupts the result.  This patch corrects the routine and expands the valid range to: [-20.5, 45.0] feet.

Jul 7, 2026: SCN26-63: P-ETSS v1.4.5 - Add ability to toggle off "bias-calculation" for 36 stations; add bias correction for 9 Eastern Region (ER) and 4 Alaska Region (AR) stations; include SHEF support for 8 AR and 14 Puerto Rico / Virgin Island (PR_VI) stations; and update datum information for 17 stations. - Effective Jul 7, 2026

May 28, 2026: SCN26-41_aaa: P-Surge v3.2 - Improvements to hydro-dynamic modeling in Puerto Rico, better ensemble members (i.e., better handling of landfall, and better method to stop running a storm), updated error statistics, experimental SHEF output, and discontinuation of 0 - 80 hr products for CONUS (in favor of 0 - 102 hr). - Effective Jun 2, 2026

Apr 16, 2026: PNS26-32: P-ETSS v1.5 - Soliciting Comments on proposed upgrades to the P-ETSS v1.5 model through May 16, 2026.  Please see here for a presentation on the P-ETSS v1.5 improvements.

Jan 22, 2026: PNS26-06: P-Surge v3.2 - Soliciting Comments on changes to P-Surge through Feb 20, 2026.  Specifically: (a) replace underlying computational grid for Puerto Rico, (b) adjust how interpolation methods for intensity and size handle landfall, (c) update error statistics, and (d) experimentally generate SHEF output at stations.

2025

Nov 10, 2025: P-ETSS v1.4.4 - Correcting an inconsistency between the 00Z/12Z and 06Z/18Z P-ETSS NAEFS station outputs caused by failing to skip the initial 0-6 hour forecast period when using the 6-hour delayed CMC 00Z/12Z GEPS guidance at 06Z/18Z for station output.  Also, updating station output at Kipnuk, AK to not use erroneous anomaly calculations caused by limitations with the observations.

Jul 30, 2025: SCN25-57: P-ETSS v1.4.3 - Domain upgrades for: Seattle, WA, San Francisco, CA, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Fort Myers, FL, and Kotzebue, AK; upgrades to the tidal constituents used for the West Coast; corrected an inadvertent two-degree westward shift in the wind interpolation for the East Coast (8/28/2025 11:53 email); bug fixes; and various updates to guidance at stations.  Removes Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) and P-ETSS data from the National Digital Guidance Database. - Effective Sep 2, 2025

Apr 25, 2025: SCN25-31_aaa: P-Surge v3.1.2 - Creation of P-Surge products for Hawaii, wave calculations made more efficiently, and discontinuation of "> 0 feet AGL" products. - Effective May 20, 2025

Apr 14, 2025: PNS25-24: P-ETSS v1.4 - Soliciting Comments on proposed upgrades to the P-ETSS v1.4 model through May 14, 2025.  Please see here for a presentation on the P-ETSS v1.4 verification scores.  Please see here for specific stations. referenced by the PNS.

Mar 28, 2025: P-ETSS v1.3.9 - Corrected a header for the stations in the Gulf of America.

Mar 11, 2025: P-Surge v3.0.8 - Updated naming conventions for Gulf.

Mar 5, 2025: SCN25-25: P-ETSS v1.3.8 - Updated naming conventions for Gulf. - Effective Mar 12, 2025

2024

Dec 18, 2024: PNS24-76: Soliciting Comments on changes to P-Surge through Jan 22, 2025.  Specifically, the removal of the probabilities of > 0 feet AGL.

Nov 8, 2024: P-ETSS v1.3.7 - Correction for an out-of-bounds error in a merge stage. - Effective Nov 14, 2024

Jul 22, 2024: P-Surge v3.0.7 - Corrected the calculation method for cumulative exceedance products to match the correct one used by the cumulative probability products.  Also discontinued sending a coarse PR_VI grid to NHC.

Jun 20, 2024: P-ETSS v1.3.6 - Re-synchronized the station tidal constituents and station datums; fixed a typo in the "Carolyn Is Golovin Bay, AK" station name; and updated NWSLI for "New London, CT" to "NLHC3" (from "NLNC3").

May 22, 2024: SCN24-43: ETSS - Transition ET-Surge operational guidance from "gate" webserver. - Effective Jun 10, 2024

2023

Oct 13, 2023: P-ETSS v1.3.5 - Corrected a mask issue over Delaware / Maryland. - Effective Nov 15, 2023

Sep 28, 2023: P-Surge v3.0.6 - Corrected the wind grid definition within /parm/dta/eok3dta. - Effective Oct 11, 2023

Sep 26, 2023: SCN23-94: P-ETSS v1.3.4 - Correct a SHEF encoding error and several stations in Alaska. - Effective Sep 27, 2023

Jul 7, 2023: SCN23-80: P-ETSS v1.3 and ETSS v2.5 - Nesting in AK; inclusion of spatially varying bottom friction; Fourier-based post-processing scheme. - Effective Aug 15, 2023

Jul 26, 2023: P-Surge v3.0.4 - Corrected wave repeatability bug after re-enabling wave energy transfers (v3.0.3 - Jul 7). - Effective Aug 8, 2023

May 2, 2023: NOAA Press Release: P-Surge v3.0 - Support for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to account for surge, tide, and waves; inclusion of spatially varying bottom friction; and ability to handle two simultaneous storms.

Apr 21, 2023: SCN23-46_aaa: P-Surge v3.0 - Support for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to account for surge, tide, and waves; inclusion of spatially varying bottom friction; and ability to handle two simultaneous storms. - Effective May 2, 2023

Mar 27, 2023: PNS23-20: Soliciting Comments on proposed upgrades to the P-ETSS v1.3 and ETSS v2.5, models through Apr 26, 2023.  Please see here for a presentation on the P-ETSS v1.3 and ETSS 2.5 verification scores.

2022

Aug 1, 2022: PNS22-48: Soliciting Comments on MDL-maintained P-Surge, P-ETSS, ETSS, and ESTOFS websites through Jan 31, 2023.

Jun 28, 2022: P-ETSS v1.2 and ETSS v2.4 - Transitioned P-ETSS and ETSS to WCOSS 2.

Jun 28, 2022: P-Surge v2.10 - Transitioned P-Surge to WCOSS 2.

2021

Sep 3, 2021: SCN21-81: P-ETSS v1.1.5 and ETSS v2.3.6 - Tidal phase correction for two station in Alaska.  Please see here for an explanation. - Effective Sep 7, 2021

Jul 26, 2021: SCN21-70: P-ETSS v1.1.4 and ETSS v2.3.5 - Adjust Palm Beach (PB3) initial water level method.  Please see here for an explanation. - Effective Jul 27, 2021

Apr 9, 2021: SCN21-41: P-Surge v2.9 - Initialize wind ensemble based on NHC forecast of RMW (vs assuming a constant pressure or RMW). - Effective May 11, 2021

Feb 1, 2021: SCN20-106 Updated: P-ETSS v1.1 and ETSS v2.3 - P-ETSS is now 52 members (31 member GEFS + 21 member GEPS).  ETSS includes 1-hr 13 km (vs 3-hr 0.5 degree) GFS. - Effective Feb 25, 2021

2020

Aug 18, 2020: SCN20-81: P-Surge v2.8 - Initialize wind ensemble based on initial size RMW (vs pressure) estimates; also change error groupings from (TS, TD, HU) to (0-50, 50-95, and > 95 kts). - Effective Sep 29, 2020

2018

Sep 21, 2018: SCN18-36 Updated: P-Surge - Dataflow routing change in the NDGD. - Effective Oct 23, 2018

Apr 10, 2018: SCN18-36 Updated: P-Surge v2.7 - Added 90% exceedance; dropped > 21, 22, ..., 25 feet datum products. - Effective May 7, 2018

2017

Nov 6, 2017: SCN17-63 Updated: P-ETSS v1.0 and ETSS v2.2 - First version of P-ETSS (21 member GEFS).  ETSS - tidal phase shift corrections for CD2, ETP3, AP3; and extend time range to 102-hr (from 96-hr). - Effective Dec 6, 2017

Apr 10, 2017: SCN17-26 Updated: P-Surge v2.6 - Extend forecast to 102-hr (from 78-hr); Allow NHC to run for Sub-Tropical storms, depressions, and Potential/Post Tropical Cyclones; Utilize the high-res South Florida basin. - Effective Apr 18, 2017

2015

Oct 20, 2015: TIN15-39: ETSS v2.1 - Use a new Alaska basin to let water flow through the Bering Straight; include overland calculations of water level inundation based on surge plus tide for all US coastal areas. - Effective Nov 3, 2015

May 26, 2015: P-Surge v2.5 - Products on coarser 2.5km grids, Exceedance above datum at 1-hr time steps.

Apr 1, 2015: TIN15-18: ETSS v2.0 - Overland calculations for East Coast and Gulf of Mexico. - Effective May 19, 2015

2014

Sep 12, 2014: TIN14-31 Amended: ETSS v1.5 - Switched to 0.5 degree GFS winds (vs 1 degree); corrected mask for merging Bering Sea; generating 2.5 km CONUS, 3.0 km Alaska grids. - Effective Oct 14, 2014

Jul 3, 2014: TIN14-12 Corrected: P-Surge v2.0 - Probabilistic tropical cyclone storm Surge + tide (P-Surge) above datum becomes operational: {probabilities of 2, 3, ... 25 feet, exceedance of 10, 20, ..., 90%} {0 - 78-hr cumulative}. - Effective Jul 8, 2014

Jul 3, 2014: TIN14-11 Corrected: P-Surge v2.0 - Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge + tide Heights (PHISH) becomes operational: {probabilities of 0, 1, 2, ... 20 feet, exceedance of 10, 20, .., 50%} {6-hr cumulative and incremental out to 78 hours}. - Effective Jul 8, 2014

2013

Aug 14, 2013: PNS 13surge_tide: P-Surge - Soliciting Comments on Experimental Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Tide above Datum through Nov 30, 2013.

Jul 25, 2013: PNS 13phish: P-Surge - Improvements to Experimental Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Height (PHISH) Products. - Effective Jul 25, 2013

2012

Oct 11, 2012: ETSS - Transitioned ETSS to WCOSS.

2011

Apr 7, 2011: SCN11-17: P-Surge - 10, 20, 30, ..., 90% surge-only exceedance products become operational. - Effective Jun 1, 2011

Apr 7, 2011: TIN11-13: P-Surge - Probability of > 2, ..., 25 feet surge-only products become operation in the NDGD. - Effective Jun 1, 2011

2010

Dec 21, 2010: TIN10-64: ETSS - Replace the Gulf of Mexico grid with higher resolution. - Effective Feb 1, 2011

Jan 20, 2010: PNS 10exp_surge: P-Surge - Soliciting comments for experimental Probabilistic tropical cyclone storm Surge (P-Surge) exceedance products through Nov 30, 2010.

2009

Jul 23, 2009: PNS 09storm_surge: P-Surge - Soliciting comments for experimental Probabilistic tropical cyclone storm Surge (P-Surge) exceedance products through Nov 30, 2009.

Jun 5, 2009: TIN09-21: SDP - SLOSH tropical cyclone storm surge Display Program (SDP) now online. - Effective Jun 5, 2009

Feb 24, 2009: SCN09-11: P-Surge - Probability of > 2, ..., 25 feet surge-only products become operational. - Effective Jun 1, 2009

2008

Dec 22, 2008: TIN08-98: P-Surge - Addition of more levels: probability of 11, ..., 25 feet surge-only products. - Effective Mar 24, 2009

May 5, 2008: TIN08-39: ETSS - 5km CONUS and 6km Alaska gridded products. - Effective Aug 26, 2008

Apr 25, 2008: SCN08-33: P-Surge - Probability of > 5 feet surge-only products become operational. - Effective Jun 1, 2008

Apr 22, 2008: PNS 08 Corrected: P-Surge - Soliciting comments for experimental Probabilistic hurricane storm Surge (P-Surge) products and experimental Probabilistic storm surge GRIB2 files on NOAAPort through Nov 15, 2008.

2007

Apr 24, 2007: TIN07-26: ETSS - Extend time range to 96-hr (from 48-hr). - Effective Jul 10, 2007

Apr 18, 2007: P-Surge v1.0 - Initial Implementation.

2006

May 5, 2006: PNS 06: P-Surge - Soliciting comments on experimental Probabilistic hurricane storm Surge (P-Surge) products through Nov 15, 2006.