2007 Parallel GFS MOS Evaluation

The GFS MOS forecast equations have been applied to output from NCEP's parallel runs of the GFS model. A comparative verification was perfomed using parallel GFS and operational GFS MOS guidance from July 1st through October 31st, 2005, and September 1st, 2006 through March 31st, 2007. Warm-season verification scores were calculated from data from July - September, 2005 and September 2006. Cool-season verification scores were calculated from data from October 2005 and October 2006 - March 2007. Verification scores are presented for maximum, minimum, and 2-m temperature, dew point, probability of precipitation (POP), wind speed and direction, total sky cover, ceiling height, and visibility.

Verification Plots

Element	Cool Season Plots (Images)	Warm Season Plots (Images)
Maxiumum Temperature	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites Bias CONUS Bias Alaska Bias HI/PR Bias	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites Bias CONUS Bias Alaska Bias HI/PR Bias
Minimum Temperature	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites Bias CONUS Bias Alaska Bias HI/PR Bias	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites Bias CONUS Bias Alaska Bias HI/PR Bias
2-m Temperature	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites Bias CONUS Bias Alaska Bias HI/PR Bias	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites Bias CONUS Bias Alaska Bias HI/PR Bias
Dew Point Temperature	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites Bias CONUS Bias Alaska Bias HI/PR Bias	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites Bias CONUS Bias Alaska Bias HI/PR Bias
12-hr POP	All Sites Brier Score CONUS Brier Score Alaska Brier Score HI/PR Brier Score	All Sites Brier Score CONUS Brier Score Alaska Brier Score HI/PR Brier Score
Wind Speed	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites HSS CONUS HSS Alaska HSS HI/PR HSS All Sites Bias CONUS Bias Alaska Bias HI/PR Bias	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites HSS CONUS HSS Alaska HSS HI/PR HSS All Sites Bias CONUS Bias Alaska Bias HI/PR Bias
Wind Direction	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites HSS CONUS HSS Alaska HSS HI/PR HSS All Sites % of errors < 30 deg. CONUS % of errors < 30 deg. Alaska % of errors < 30 deg. HI/PR % of errors < 30 deg.	All Sites MAE CONUS MAE Alaska MAE HI/PR MAE All Sites HSS CONUS HSS Alaska HSS HI/PR HSS All Sites % of errors < 30 deg. CONUS % of errors < 30 deg. Alaska % of errors < 30 deg. HI/PR % of errors < 30 deg.
Ceiling Height	All Sites HSS CONUS HSS Alaska HSS HI/PR HSS All Sites Threat Score CONUS Threat Score Alaska Threat Score HI/PR Threat Score All Sites % Correct CONUS % Correct Alaska % Correct HI/PR % Correct	All Sites HSS CONUS HSS Alaska HSS HI/PR HSS All Sites Threat Score CONUS Threat Score Alaska Threat Score HI/PR Threat Score All Sites % Correct CONUS % Correct Alaska % Correct HI/PR % Correct
Visibility	All Sites HSS CONUS HSS Alaska HSS HI/PR HSS All Sites Threat Score CONUS Threat Score Alaska Threat Score HI/PR Threat Score All Sites % Correct CONUS % Correct Alaska % Correct HI/PR % Correct	All Sites HSS CONUS HSS Alaska HSS HI/PR HSS All Sites Threat Score CONUS Threat Score Alaska Threat Score HI/PR Threat Score All Sites % Correct CONUS % Correct Alaska % Correct HI/PR % Correct
Sky Cover	All Sites HSS CONUS HSS Alaska HSS HI/PR HSS All Sites % Correct CONUS % Correct Alaska % Correct HI/PR % Correct	All Sites HSS CONUS HSS Alaska HSS HI/PR HSS All Sites % Correct CONUS % Correct Alaska % Correct HI/PR % Correct

GFS MOS Parallel Evaluation 2007 - MDL

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2007 Parallel GFS MOS Evaluation

Verification Plots

MOS