Technical Notices - Storm Surge - MDL

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Headers

P-Surge v3.1 Header Scheme (approved: May 15, 2024).  P-Surge v3.1 Headers is a complete list of WMO Headers (based on the scheme) for P-Surge products available over the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN) and NOAAPORT in GRIB2 format.

P-ETSS v1.0 Header Scheme (approved: May 24, 2017)

Service Change Notices (SCN), Technical Implementation Notices (TIN), Public Notification Statements (PNS)

For a complete listing of SCN, TIN, PNS, and other change notifications from NWS, please see:
https://www.weather.gov/notification/ or https://www.weather.gov/notification/archive (for older notices)

2024

Nov 8, 2024 - P-ETSS v1.3.7 - Correction for an out-of-bounds error in a merge stage - Effective Nov 14, 2024

July 22, 2024 - P-Surge v3.0.7 - Corrected the calculation method for cumulative exceedance products to match the correct one used by the cumulative probability products.  Also discontinued sending a coarse PR_VI grid to NHC - Effective Jul 22, 2024

Jun 20, 2024 - P-ETSS v1.3.6 - Re-synchronized the station tidal constituents and station datums; fixed a typo in the "Carolyn Is Golovin Bay, AK" station name; and updated NWSLI for "New London, CT" to "NLHC3" (from "NLNC3") - Effective Jun 20, 2024

SCN24-43: May 22, 2024 - ETSS - Transition ET-Surge operational guidance from "gate" webserver - Effective Jun 10, 2024

2023

Oct 13, 2023 - P-ETSS v1.3.5 - Corrected a mask issue over Delaware / Maryland - Effective Nov 15, 2023

Sep 28, 2023 - P-Surge v3.0.6 - Corrected the wind grid definition within /parm/dta/eok3dta - Effective Oct 11, 2023

SCN23-94: Sep 26, 2023 - P-ETSS v1.3.4 - Correct a SHEF encoding error and several stations in Alaska - Effective Sep 27, 2023.

SCN23-80: Jul 7, 2023 - P-ETSS v1.3 and ETSS v2.5 - Nesting in AK; inclusion of spatially varying bottom friction; Fourier-based post-processing scheme - Effective Aug 15, 2023.

Jul 26, 2023 - P-Surge v3.0.4 - Corrected wave repeatability bug after re-enabling wave energy transfers (v3.0.3 - Jul 7) - Effective Aug 8, 2023

NOAA Press Release: May 2, 2023 - P-Surge v3.0 - Support for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to account for surge, tide, and waves; inclusion of spatially varying bottom friction; and ability to handle two simultaneous storms.

SCN23-46_aaa: Mar 31, 2023 - P-Surge v3.0 - Support for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to account for surge, tide, and waves; inclusion of spatially varying bottom friction; and ability to handle two simultaneous storms - Effective May 2, 2023.  

PNS23-20: Mar 27, 2023 - Soliciting Comments on proposed upgrades to the P-ETSS v1.3 and ETSS v2.5, models through Apr 26, 2023.  Please see here for a presentation on the P-ETSS v1.3 and ETSS 2.5 verification scores.

2022

PNS22-48: Aug 1, 2022 - Soliciting Comments on MDL-maintained P-Surge, P-ETSS, ETSS, and ESTOFS websites

Jun 28, 2022 - P-ETSS v1.2 and ETSS v2.4 - Transitioned P-ETSS and ETSS to WCOSS 2

Jun 28, 2022 - P-Surge v2.10 - Transitioned P-Surge to WCOSS 2

2021

SCN21-81: Sep 8, 2021 - P-ETSS v1.1.5 and ETSS v2.3.6 - Tidal phase correction for two station in Alaska.  Please see here for an explanation.

SCN21-70: Jul 27, 2021 - P-ETSS v1.1.4 and ETSS v2.3.5 - Adjust Palm Beach (PB3) initial water level method.  Please see here for an explanation.

SCN21-41: May 11, 2021 - P-Surge v2.9 - Initialize wind ensemble based on NHC forecast of RMW (vs assuming a constant pressure or RMW).

SCN20-106 Updated: Feb 25, 2021 - P-ETSS v1.1 and ETSS v2.3 - P-ETSS is now 52 members (31 member GEFS + 21 member GEPS).  ETSS includes 1-hr 13 km (vs 3-hr 0.5 degree) GFS.

2020

SCN20-81: Sep 29, 2020 - P-Surge v2.8 - Initialize wind ensemble based on initial size RMW (vs pressure) estimates; also change error groupings from (TS, TD, HU) to (0-50, 50-95, and > 95 kts).

2018

SCN18-36 Updated: Oct 23, 2018 - P-Surge - Dataflow routing change in the NDGD

SCN18-36 Updated: May 7, 2018 - P-Surge v2.7 - Added 90% exceedance; dropped > 21, 22, ..., 25 feet datum products

2017

SCN17-63 Updated: Dec 6, 2017 - P-ETSS v1.0 and ETSS v2.2 - First version of P-ETSS (21 member GEFS).  ETSS - tidal phase shift corrections for CD2, ETP3, AP3; and extend time range to 102-hr (from 96-hr).

SCN17-26 Updated: Apr 18, 2017 - P-Surge v2.6 - Extend forecast to 102-hr (from 78-hr); Allow NHC to run for Sub-Tropical storms, depressions, and Potential/Post Tropical Cyclones; Utilize the high-res South Florida basin.

2015

TIN15-39: Nov 3, 2015 - ETSS v2.1 - Use a new Alaska basin to let water flow through the Bering Straight; include overland calculations of water level inundation based on surge plus tide for all US coastal areas

May 26, 2015 - P-Surge v2.5 - Products on coarser 2.5km grids, Exceedance above datum at 1-hr time steps

TIN15-18: May 19, 2015 - ETSS v2.0 - Overland calculations for East Coast and Gulf of Mexico.

2014

TIN14-31 Amended: Oct 14, 2014 - ETSS v1.5 - Switched to 0.5 degree GFS winds (vs 1 degree); corrected mask for merging Bering Sea; generating 2.5 km CONUS, 3.0 km Alaska grids

TIN14-12: Corrected: Jul 8, 2014 - P-Surge v2.0 - Probabilistic tropical cyclone storm Surge + tide (P-Surge) above datum becomes operational: {probabilities of 2, 3, ... 25 feet, exceedance of 10, 20, ..., 90%} {0 - 78-hr cumulative}.

TIN14-11 Corrected: Jul 8, 2014 - P-Surge v2.0 - Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge + tide Heights (PHISH) becomes operational: {probabilities of 0, 1, 2, ... 20 feet, exceedance of 10, 20, .., 50%} {6-hr cumulative and incremental out to 78 hours}.

2013

PNS 13: Nov 30, 2013 - P-Surge - Soliciting Comments on Experimental Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Tide above Datum

PNS 13: Jul 25, 2013 - P-Surge - Improvements to Experimental Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Height (PHISH) Products

2012

Oct 11, 2012 - ETSS - Transitioned ETSS to WCOSS

2011

SCN11-17: Jun 1, 2011 - P-Surge - 10, 20, 30, ..., 90% surge-only exceedance products become operational.

TIN11-13: Jun 1, 2011 - P-Surge - Probability of > 2, ..., 25 feet surge-only products become operation in the NDGD

2010

TIN10-64: Feb 1, 2011 - ETSS - Replace the Gulf of Mexico grid with higher resolution

PNS 10:  Nov 30, 2010 - P-Surge - Soliciting comments for experimental Probabilistic tropical cyclone storm Surge (P-Surge) exceedance products

2009

PNS 09: Nov 30, 2009 - P-Surge - Soliciting comments for experimental Probabilistic tropical cyclone storm Surge (P-Surge) exceedance products

TIN09-21: Jun 5, 2009 - SDP - SLOSH tropical cyclone storm surge Display Program (SDP) now online

SCN09-11: Jun 1, 2009 - P-Surge - Probability of > 2, ..., 25 feet surge-only products become operational.

2008

TIN08-98: Mar 24, 2009 - P-Surge - Addition of more levels: probability of 11, ..., 25 feet surge-only products

PNS 08 Corrected: Nov 15, 2008 - P-Surge - Soliciting comments for experimental Probabilistic hurricane storm Surge (P-Surge) products and experimental Probabilistic storm surge GRIB2 files on NOAAPort

TIN08-39: Aug 26, 2008 - ETSS - 5km CONUS and 6km Alaska gridded products

SCN08-33: Jun 1, 2008 - P-Surge - Probability of > 5 feet surge-only products become operational.

2007

TIN07-26: Jul 10, 2007 - ETSS - Extend time range to 96-hr (from 48-hr).

Apr 18, 2007 - P-Surge v1.0 - Initial Implementation

2006

PNS 06: May 5 to Nov 15, 2006 - P-Surge - Soliciting comments on experimental Probabilistic hurricane storm Surge (P-Surge) products