P-Surge Upgrade NOAA Press Release

May 02, 2023

In this aerial view, parts of Sanibel Causeway are washed away along with sections of the bridge after Hurricane Ian passed through the area on September 29, 2022 in Sanibel, Florida. The hurricane brought high winds, storm surge and rain to the area causing severe damage. (Image credit: Getty images)

On May 2, 2023, NOAA upgraded its Probabilistic Storm Surge (P-Surge) model — the primary model for predicting storm surge associated with high-impact weather like hurricanes and tropical storms —  to version 3.0. This upgrade, developed by the Decision Support Division of MDL, advances storm surge modeling and forecasting for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and comes just in time for the 2023 hurricane season beginning on June 1 and running through November 30.