New Global Tropics Hazards (GTH) Outlook Product at the NOAA CPC - OSTI Modeling
New Global Tropics Hazards (GTH) Outlook Product at the NOAA CPC
April 13, 2022
The NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operationally releases the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH) each week that targets precipitation and temperature related hazards and regions of tropical cyclone development and/or impacts for the Week 1-2 forecast time period. The current product is primarily deterministic in nature where the confidence of potential hazardous areas is denoted in a limited, subjective manner.
Through an OSTI-funded project, a team led by CPC scientist Jon Gottschalck is updating the GTH product to a probabilistic format that will be targeting the Week 2-3 forecast time period. The new product with an extended outlook of extreme events will not only be in better alignment with CPC’s mission, but also is expected to enhance Impact Decision Support Services (IDSS) opportunities within the National Weather Service (NWS) at the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale.
The product is anticipated to be released experimentally and publicly later on during FY22.
An example of the new GTH outlook targeting the Week 2-3 time period, that has 3-tiered probability ranges. Tropical cyclone probability ranges of >20%, >40% and >60% correspond to low, medium and high risk, respectively. Temperature and precipitation probabilities are denoted for >50%, >65% and >80% in both the above and below average categories.
The updated GTH products will be of great benefit to forecasters and stakeholders alike. The primary benefit is continued advancement in lead time for situational awareness and potential decision making ahead of the hazardous impacts associated with extreme rainfall periods, extreme heat events and tropical cyclones at sea and near coastal regions. The improvements in the GTH products will directly aid public sectors such as the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), among others and national and international aid organizations such as the Red Cross and the U. S. Agency for International Development (USAID). More internally to NOAA, the product improvements will benefit the NWS regional and local forecasting offices in a number of focus areas including (1) assessing and forecasting anomalous tropical convection, (2) providing advance notice of potential mid-latitude pattern changes impacting U.S. weekly weather and climate, and, (3) releasing the first official NWS subseasonal tropical cyclone outlook product.
For more information on this project please watch the project team’s presentation in the Weeks 3-4/S2S Webinar series or contact the Project Manager, Jon Gottschalck at jon.gottschalck@noaa.gov.