About OSTI Modeling

The Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) Modeling Program Team is responsible for supporting a variety of NWS modeling and research initiatives to improve weather forecasts. This is accomplished by funding research projects to accelerate and advance the development of new models, and foster collaboration among NOAA research scientists, federal labs, operational forecasters and the academic community. Examples of programs managed by this program division include efforts to improve guidance for hurricane track, intensity, and storm surge forecasts; develop an end-to-end air quality forecast capability; advance research to extend forecast skill beyond 8-10 days; and implement a weather-scale, fully-coupled numerical weather prediction system.

Who we are

Kevin Garrett, Director

Kevin Garrett has been the Director of the NWS/OSTI Modeling Program since November 2022. As Director, Kevin oversees management of NWS next generation modeling advancements through the OSTI modeling programs, and their transition to operations in close coordination with the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), cross-NOAA Line Office partners, and the broader Unified Forecast System (UFS) community. Kevin currently represents NWS on the UFS Steering Committee and the Development Testbed Center (DTC) Management Board.

Prior to joining OSTI, Kevin was a Physical Scientist and the Data Assimilation Science Team Lead with the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), where he planned and executed projects to advance the use and impact of satellite observations into NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, oversaw the development of the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), and managed high performance compute (HPC) resources. The data assimilation focus largely supported next-generation satellite architecture planning through exploring the value of under-exploited radiance observations such as from the NOAA-20 CrIS shortwave Infrared band, and from research and demonstration missions including the European Space Agency (ESA) Aeolus Doppler wind lidar. Additionally, Kevin supported a variety of inter- and intra-agency groups including representing the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) Executive Team, participating on NOAA Modeling Board working groups, and serving as the NOAA Science Lead on the NOAA-Google OTA (Other Transaction Authority) agreement to advance Artificial Intelligence techniques in satellite data assimilation.

Kevin received a B.S. in Information Management and Technology from Syracuse University, and the M.S. degree in Atmospheric Science from Texas A&M University.

Yan Xue, PhD

Yan Xue manages the Weeks 3-4 Program and Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) grants within the NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) Modeling Program Division. The Weeks 3-4 Program supports the improvement of Weeks 3-4 forecast products at NWS, development and implementation of the next-generation sub-seasonal Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) under the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Framework. She is also leading the planning for the development and implementation of the first UFS-based Seasonal Forecast System (SFS). Prior to joining OSTI-Modeling, Yan had worked at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NCEP for 18 years, working on climate variability and predictability, subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction, coupled model analysis, ocean monitoring, coupled reanalysis, and observing system experiments.

Yan completed her undergraduate work at University of Science and Technology of China with a BA in Physics and graduate work at Columbia University with a MS and PhD in Geophysical Science.

Aaron Poyer

Aaron Poyer is a Program Manager here in OSTI Modelling. He currently manages and provides oversight for the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) and the Consumer Options for Alternative System To Allocate Losses (COASTAL) Act. Aaron is also one of OSTI’s representatives to the Interagency Council for Advancing Meteorological Services (ICAMS) as a member of the ICAMS Subcommittee on Weather Services, a Co-chair for the ICAMS Disaster Impact Assessments and Plans (DIAP) working group, and a member of the ICAMS Decision Support Services (DSS) working group.

HFIP was established within NOAA in response to several devastating hurricanes in the mid-2000s to provide support for model enhancements and replacements including the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF), the current operational model, and the upcoming, Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System model (HAFS) which is entering operations for hurricane season 2023.. 

The COASTAL Act was established to support post storm event analysis for determining the cause of damage (wind vs. water), when no infrastructure remains. The outcomes of these analyses are to be used in interagency cooperation for assessing the mechanism for loss reimbursement. 

Aaron is currently in candidacy for a PhD in Geography and Environmental Systems at the University of Maryland Baltimore County. He earned his M.S. degree in Environmental Biology from Hood College (2009), a B.S. degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oswego (2000), and an AS in Math/Sciences from Tompkins Cortland Community College (1997). Additionally Aaron is certified as a FAC P/PM Senior level program manager and obtained a Master's Certificate in Program/Project Management from a partnership with Commerce Learning Center & George Washington University (2011).

Youngsun Jung, PhD

Dr. Youngsun Jung is the program manager of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) program and project lead in short-range weather/convective allowing models, data assimilation, overall physics, and fire weather research in the Modeling Program. She is also a former Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) manager. 

Before joining the NWS, she served as the Director of Research of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma, where she led a team of scientists and students in advancing the scientific understanding of mesoscale and storm-scale meteorology, as well as improving numerical weather prediction and its applications using advanced data assimilation systems for various modeling systems. Her expertise includes the assimilation of advanced remote sensing observations and the use of polarimetric radar data for evaluating and improving microphysics parameterization schemes.

She holds a Ph.D. from the University of Oklahoma. She received her M.S. degree in meteorology from Seoul National University and her B.S. degree from Ewha Woman’s University in South Korea

Alex Alder

Alex Alder is the webmaster for the OSTI-M team. He handles all the websites under the OSTI-M portfolio, such as the UFSCommunity, UFS-R2O, this OSTI homepage, as well as any necessary web support within OSTI. Alex has a degree in Information Technology, and Computer Science.
 
Prior to Joining OSTI-Modeling, Alex started his career working in Restaurant Management. He was responsible for installing, maintaining, and documenting several new technology systems that drastically improved restaurant operations. His specialty is ensuring computer systems are usable and understood by the end user, and implementing systems that work. Alex has since worked on several freelance projects in the web industry, specializing in managing wordpress installations.

Jack Kain, PHD

Dr. Jack Kain is a Senior Technical Project Manager working for IBSS Corporation in the NWS/OSTI Modeling Program. Previously, he worked at the NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory for 22 years. While at NSSL, he collaborated extensively with the NWS, particularly the collocated NWS/Storm Prediction Center. Towards the end of his federal career, he left NSSL for 3 years to lead the Model Physics Group at the NWS/Environmental Modeling Center, before returning to NSSL. He retired from federal service as NSSL’s Director in 2022.
 
Jack earned a doctorate and M.S. degrees in Meteorology from Penn State and a B.S. in Chemistry from the College of William and Mary.

Jason R Anderson

Jason is a Deputy Program Manager contracted through IMSG, Inc. to serve the NOAA/OSTI Modeling Program. Jason comes to the team with a deep knowledge and experience around Global Weather Operations focused on both the public and private sectors. Early in his career, he built a team to support the US Air Force’s Tethered Aerostat Radar System (TARS) to ensure peak flight time in support of Air Force and US Customs & Border Protection Programs along the US Southern Border. Afterwards, he helped found and establish WeatherOps for Weather Decision Technologies in Norman, OK building a 24/7/365 Global Weather Center. Recently, Jason helped to found and grow TruWeather Solutions (TWS), working on building systems to acquire micro weather data, emerging technologies and modeling for UAS operations and promote BVLOS applications expanding economic viability in the US and global markets. He was also a Project Manager for contracts with the States of OH & VA, as well as the FAA working to prototype and bring to market a complete end to end system to manage the operation of UAS Systems. Additionally, Jason helped lead the company to a third place finish in Genius NY, one of the world’s leading business competitions for Autonomous Systems.

Jason was awarded a B.S. in Meteorology from the State University of New York College at Oneonta in 2006.

Shira Francis

Shira Francis is the Deputy Program Manager for the OSTI-M team within the National Weather Service. She provides program support to the programs within OSTI-M. She graduated from the University of Maryland with a degree in Environmental Science and Policy, with a concentration in Society and Environmental Issues.

Shira started her career in energy efficient technologies for businesses and residences, and prior to joining the OSTI-M team she spent the past 7 years in program management for utility energy efficiency incentive delivery programs across Maryland, Florida, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.

Steven Simon

Steven Simon is a Deputy Program Manager contracted through IBSS Corporation in support of the NOAA OSTI Modeling Program Division, with a focus on providing support for the Weeks 3-4 Program.

Prior to coming aboard the NOAA OSTI Modeling Program Division, Steven had worked in various physical scientist roles in support of the NOAA Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and the NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). In those roles, he developed and disseminated products and services aimed at improving and innovating historical and real-time global ensemble model forecast verification capabilities, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate outlook analyses, and analyses of historical archives and long-term projections of coastal sea level trends and coastal inundation frequency and severity under various climate scenarios.

Steven received a M.S. degree in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography in 2019 from the University of Miami and a M.S. degree in Meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University in 2015. Previously, he received a B.S. in Meteorology and Mathematics from the University of Miami in 2011.

William Komaromi, PHD

Dr. William Komaromi is a Deputy Program Manager and Subject Matter Expert for the HFIP and COASTAL Act projects, contracted through IMSG and IBSS Corp to serve the NOAA/OSTI Modeling Program. Will has extensive expertise in mesoscale hurricane model development and ensemble development, having recently come from the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, CA, where he was a lead developer of the COAMPS-TC deterministic and ensemble systems.

Will also has experience as a PI managing multiple ONR-funded projects, including a probabilistic prediction and microphysics project for COAMPS-TC, and a collaborative NOPP project examining the coastal impacts of hurricanes.Will also has experience managing HPC accounts and multiple git repositories. Will received his Ph.D. in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography from the University of Miami in 2014, and a M.S. in 2010. Previously, he received a B.S. in Physics and B.S. in Atmospheric Science from the University at Albany in 2008.