The UFS-R2O Project is a broad collaboration between NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental

Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), various research laboratories in the NOAA Office of Atmospheric Research (OAR), National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) as well as universities and various NOAA Cooperative Institutes.

The project is led by three project leads representing the NOAA operations, the NOAA research and the academia, respectively. The project team is organized under three Application Team (AT)s and six Cross-cutting Team (CCT)s, each co-led by two team leads. The overall project leads are responsible for laying out the vision and the scope, and developing an integrated project plan that not only addresses the scientific and technical priorities identified by the Program Offices but is also tied to the operational timelines at the NCEP/EMC. The Application Teams are responsible for operationally-mature, finalized modeling systems (as UFS Applications) by integrating efforts of the Cross-cutting Teams who focus on development of component models or supporting systems such as data assimilation, physics parameterization, modeling infrastructure and verification and validation software. 

The overarching goal of the UFS-R2O Project is to use a collaborative approach to accelerate the transition of research into operational UFS-based applications, increasing the rate of improvement of NOAA’s operational forecasts while simplifying the operational production suite. Priorities for the development have been motivated by input from forecasters, testbeds and other stakeholders. Currently the UFS-R2O Project focuses on developing the following three UFS-based forecast systems that are slated for operational releases in 2024 through 2026 timeframe. 

Medium-range Weather / Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (MRW/S2S) Applications include the Global Forecast System (GFS) for medium-range forecasts up to 16 days and the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) for subseasonal forecasts up to 45 days. Both systems will be built using the global coupled UFS as the basis, which includes the following six components of the Earth system: the FV3 dynamical core (atmosphere), MOM6 (ocean), Noah-MP (land surface), GOCART (aerosols), CICE6 (sea ice) and WAVEWATCH III (ocean surface waves). This will constitute initially the development of the upcoming operational releases of the GFS version 17 (GFSv17) and GEFS version 13 (GEFSv13), and their future versions thereafter. The two systems will be initialized with ‘weakly coupled’ Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), based on Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) initially for ocean, land and aerosols and later for atmosphere. The GFSv17 will be a deterministic system, while the GEFSv13 is an ensemble system with stochastic physics in atmosphere, land and ocean, and also includes 30-year replay-based reanalysis and reforecast.

Short-range Weather / Convection-Allowing Modeling (SRW/CAM) Application will be the UFS-based Rapid-Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) which will be a regional, high-resolution hourly-updating and convection-allowing atmosphere-land coupled ensemble system based on FV3-Limited Area Model (FV3-LAM) for prediction of severe weather. The RRFS will replace the existing hi-resolution operational modeling suite at the NCEP. A new 3-Dimensional Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (3DRTMA) system is also being developed to support National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) operations.

Hurricane Analysis and Forecast (HAFS) Application will be an atmosphere-ocean-land regional system with moving nests for hurricane prediction. This  is expected to produce a more accurate high-resolution forecast guidance for tropical cyclones across the globe and will be the UFS-based successor to the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF) and the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic Model (HMON). The new UFS-based HAFS system will be based on the FV3-LAM for the atmosphere and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for the ocean.

Beyond the development of the above UFS Applications, the R2O project expects to continue making strides towards further simplification and modernization of the NCEP production suite toward 2030. These include, but are not limited to, the development of capabilities for coupled data assimilation, coupled modeling, advanced physics, and increased spatial resolution as appropriate to each forecast application. The NCEP production suite is anticipated to undergo further modernization by embracing an agile development framework that will enable regular cadence of upgrades and implementations as well as production and evaluation of reforecasts ‘on the fly’. Additionally, development of new UFS Applications are being planned that include warn-on-forecast, ensemble seasonal prediction, coastal and Great Lakes wave forecasts, regional air quality prediction including fire weather, streamflow and flood prediction, and space weather forecasting. The expectation is that by 2030 these forecast systems along with their corresponding initialization with the JEDI software architecture will either transition to operations or be substantially developed for operational implementation.