2023 Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Annual Meeting
Nov 14-17, 2023
The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) annual meeting took place in Miami, FL, November 14th through the 17th. The meeting hosted 144 participants from the HFIP community spanning the public, private, and academic sectors, as well as international partners. The primary objective of the annual meeting is to discuss the current operational  Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFSv1) assessments, current and future hurricane modeling and product development activities, and update key HFIP strategic priorities.

The meeting discussed early results & lessons learned from real-time developmental experiment results for future upgrades to HAFS. In 2023 hurricane season, HAFSv1 has demonstrated superior track and intensity forecast skills over HWRF, with track forecast skill improved by more than 15% from days 2-5, and intensity forecast skill by ~10-20% from days 3-5 for storms within the National Hurricane Center (NHC) area of responsibility. While having two operational variants of HAFS, HAFS-A and HAFS-B, provided some insight as to forecast uncertainty, the results from 2023 demonstrate that a full HAFS ensemble will be necessary to adequately quantify uncertainty.  This information will be used to inform and outline the work required to progress HAFS toward multiple high-resolution moving storm-centric nests across all global basins, anticipated in 2027. For the first time in the history of the HFIP annual meeting, presentations from an emergency manager and a cruise line meteorologist provided additional context as to how significantly local government and private industry have benefitted from HFIP, while also providing additional context as to how the National Weather Service (NWS) can better tailor forecast products and services to a broader set of users.

The collaboration at the annual meeting, along with the presented data will foster developing efficient pathways forward to progressing a world-leading, reliable, and skillful model guidance on TC track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall, and tornadoes associated with TCs and Socio-Economic impacts. Additional objectives include further development of ideas to be included in the new 2025 HFIP Strategic Plan with revised 5-year and 10-year goals. These goals will focus on advancing forecast and communication of all hazards from TCs, incorporate risk communication research to create more effective watches & warnings, and produce improved probabilistic risk products with a focus on vulnerable communities and industries through the use of social, behavioral, and economic sciences. Lastly, a variety of approaches were discussed at the annual meeting as to how to further enhance the role of HAFS as the UFS Hurricane Application while fostering even deeper integration of ideas and potential from other aspects of the larger UFS community both inside and outside of tropical meteorology. Overall, the annual meeting proved to be a great success through contributions from many across and beyond the HFIP community, summarizing the highly successful history of the program, and setting the stage for a realigned focus for HFIP over the next 10 years.
Read more on the meetings’ major actions and takeaways, and view the presentations

OSTI-M and NAQFC hosted the 2023 Air Quality Forecasters’ Focus Group Workshop
October 12-13, 2023
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS), under its air quality program, the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), hosted the annual Air Quality Forecasters’ Focus Group Workshop on October 12-13, 2023. The NAQFC develops and implements operational air quality (AQ) prediction models to provide AQ forecast guidance for forecasters employed by local and state agencies. These agencies disseminate the forecasts to the public through NWS Forecast Offices and other outlets. This annual workshop provides a unique opportunity for AQ forecasters to share their experiences as end users of model guidance with model developers and AQ researchers from NOAA, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). The purpose of the workshop is to review assessments of the strengths and weaknesses of the AQ model guidance, examine current model development and research initiatives, and use forecaster feedback to identify gaps and/or misalignment between model performance, current R D initiatives, and forecasters’ needs.
The workshop was conducted in a hybrid format, with 76 total participants, including 24 in-person attendees. Representatives from each agency presented strategic perspectives and individual capabilities and performance assessments. Outcomes from the workshop included a list of user needs for specific forecast-guidance enhancements and development plans for known NOAA model deficiencies.
Read the full meeting summary here

NOAA launches new hurricane forecast model as Atlantic season starts strong
July 13, 2023
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center — a division of the National Weather Service — has a new model to help produce hurricane forecasts this season. The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), a partnership across NOAA's NWS, OAR, and other line offices and community partners developed The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) model which was put into operations on June 27 and will run alongside existing models for the 2023 season before replacing them as NOAA’s premier hurricane forecasting model. "The quick deployment of HAFS marks a milestone in NOAA's commitment to advancing our hurricane forecasting capabilities, and ensuring continued improvement of services to the American public," said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. "Development, testing and evaluations were jointly carried out between scientists at NOAA Research and the National Weather Service, marking a seamless transition from development to operations.”
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The Office of Science and Technology Modeling Program (OSTI-M) hosted an EMC Review
June 6-8, 2023
The Office of Science and Technology Modeling Program (OSTI-M) hosted an EMC Review at the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) in College Park, Maryland. The review assessed EMC's operations and short- and long-term plans, as well as their alignment with NCEP's strategic plan and UFS's strategic plan. The review covered EMC's activities over the last several years (2019-2022).
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AGU Editor’s highlight on a recent article by UFS-R2O MRW/S2S Team
March 2023
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP, EMC) scientist and UFS-R2O participant Dr. Yuejian Zhu’s article on quantifying forecast uncertainty in the latest coupled global ensemble system at the NCEP, is featured under AGU’s Editor’s Highlights in the February issue of Eos. Dr. Zhu’s article published in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres shows that the new atmosphere-land-ocean-ice-waves coupled system, built on top of its uncoupled predecessor, Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12), has improved skill at various forecast leads, making it a major milestone for the operational ensemble system at the NCEP.
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