Day 1: Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Oral Sessions: 8:30am - 2:30pm, Auditorium 

Day 2: Thursday, September 5, 2024
Parallel Sessions: 8:30am - 5:00pm

Day 3: Friday, September 6, 2024
Oral Sessions: 8:30am - 3:00pm

S2S modeling and prediction challenges and opportunities: Keynote Speakers

Dr. Sarah Kapnick, NOAA Chief Scientist

Sarah Kapnick, Ph.D., is chief scientist for NOAA. In this role, Dr. Kapnick is responsible for advancing policy and program direction for NOAA’s science and technology priorities. Dr. Kapnick has extensive experience at the intersection of climate science and economics. Most recently, she served as a managing director at J.P. Morgan in the role of senior climate scientist and sustainability strategist for asset and wealth management. Previously, Dr. Kapnick was a physical scientist and deputy division leader on seasonal to decadal variability and predictability at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). At GFDL, her work spanned seasonal climate prediction, mountain snowpack, extreme storms, water security and climate impacts.

Dr. Kapnick is a member of the American Geophysical Union, American Meteorological Society and American Association for the Advancement of Science. She received a Ph.D. in atmospheric and oceanic sciences from UCLA, and an A.B in mathematics from Princeton University.

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Dr. Magdalena Balmaseda, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Keynote Speaker)

Dr. Magdalena Balmaseda is leading the Predictability section in the ECMWF research department. She joined ECMWF as a member of the team when seasonal forecast activities started at ECMWF. Her work has contributed to the consolidation of the ocean and sea ice components in the ECMWF seamless prediction systems. She has promoted ocean and coupled reanalysis activities for initialization of coupled forecasts and for understanding of climate signals. Her research interests cover a wide range of areas, including forecasting system design, predictability of weather and climate, probabilistic forecasting, and scale interactions in the climate system. She has developed her career by helping to understand processes using numerical models and observations. In doing that, she has contributed to build bridges between communities: weather and climate, observationalist and modelers, oceanographers and meteorologists.

Magdalena received her PhD in Physics at the Universidad de Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain. After a post-doctoral in Oxford University on predictability and variability of El Nino Southern Oscillation, she joined ECMWF.

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Dr. William (Bill) Merryfield, ECCC Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (Keynote Speaker)

Dr. Bill Merryfield is a Research Scientist at ECCC's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) in Victoria, British Columbia. For more than 10 years he has led efforts to apply CCCma's climate and Earth system models to predicting future climate variations and trends on seasonal to decadal time scales, along with associated science. These efforts have led to CCCma's models contributing to ECCC's operational seasonal forecasts, as well as to multi-model decadal forecasts issued annually by the WMO. He currently serves on the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (as co-chair 2016-2023), and on the WCRP's Decadal Climate Prediction Project panel.

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Dr. Mike Deflorio, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes

Dr. Mike DeFlorio joined CW3E on November 1, 2018. He earned a B.S. (cum laude) in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences from Cornell University (2009) and a Ph.D. in Oceanography/Climate Science from UCSD-Scripps Institution of Oceanography (2015). His doctoral thesis focused on the interactions of clouds, SST, and aerosols with climate modes of variability, and included an investigation of the relationship between western U.S. extreme precipitation and tropical Pacific climate variability. After completing his Ph.D., Mike went on to work as a postdoctoral research fellow at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology (2015-2018) under the advisement of Dr. Duane Waliser.

At CW3E, Mike serves as project lead for Subseasonal and Seasonal forecasting of atmospheric rivers (ARs), circulation regimes, and other hydroclimate impacts over the western U.S. region. In addition to the research he has led on these topics, Mike has also helped facilitate the production of subseasonal and seasonal outlooks and has worked with CW3E researchers on the implementation of machine learning algorithms and post-processing techniques to improve AR prediction skill. Mike also serves as a liaison between the applied subseasonal and seasonal research at CW3E and stakeholders at the California Department of Water Resources.

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Mr. Jon Gottschalck, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Mr. Jon Gottschalck, Chief, Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, has worked at the Climate Prediction Center since 2004 within NOAA's National Weather Service. He is Chief of the Operational Prediction Branch within CPC and is responsible for preparation and dissemination of CPC operational outlooks and related products and services. Prior to this, Mr. Gottschalck served as CPC Head of Forecast Operations and as the CPC Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) operational team lead. Mr. Gottschalck earned both a B.S. and M.S. degree in meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University in 1994/1996 and has worked at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami from 1997-2001 and at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center from 2001-2004.

Dr. Wanqiu Wang, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Dr. Wanqiu Wang's principal interests are improving predictions of climate anomalies in the earth atmosphere-ocean-ice-land system at subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, and diagnosing predictability of S2S climate variability and understanding of systematic biases in coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamic forecast models. Dr. Wang received a PhD. degree in atmospheric sciences from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in 1996. From 1997-2004, Dr. Wang worked at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) environmental modeling center (EMC). Dr. Wang joined the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in May 2004. The focus of his work is understanding predictability and improving predictions of Tropical intraseasonal and interannual variability, and Arctic sea ice. Dr. Wang has been serving as the chief of the CPC Operational Monitoring Branch of CPC since August 2019.

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Dr. Jonathan Beverly, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

Dr. Jonathan Beverley is a postdoctoral associate working within the Atmosphere-Ocean Processes and Predictability Division at the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. His main research interests are subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, tropical-extratropical teleconnections and climate change. Prior to moving to Boulder in 2022, he was a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Exeter, UK, looking at future changes to ENSO teleconnections under climate change. He earned both his BSc in Meteorology and Climate and PhD in Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading, UK.

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Dr. Andrew Wittenberg, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Dr. Andrew Wittenberg is a senior scientist at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, NJ, where he serves as the deputy lead of GFDL's Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability & Predictability Division. His research team focuses on tropical Pacific climate, ENSO, seasonal-to-decadal predictability, climate change, and climate modeling. He has participated in the development of many of GFDL's global coupled GCMs — including CM2.1, ESM2M, CM3, CM4, FLOR, and SPEAR. He contributed to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, co-chaired the International CLIVAR Research Focus on ENSO (2013-2018), served on CLIVAR's Pacific Region Panel (2019-2023), and is currently active in CLIVAR's Working Group on Conceptual Models of ENSO. Since 2015, he has also been a part of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) project, helping to formulate its design & implementation strategies to advance understanding, modeling, and predictions of this critical region.

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Dr. Hao Zuo, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Dr. Hao Zuo leads development of the next generation of ocean and sea-ice Reanalysis-Analysis System at ECMWF. He implemented the current operational Ocean and sea-ice ensemble Reanalysis-analysis System-OCEAN5, which has been used to initialise ocean and sea-ice components of all ECMWF forecasting systems (ENS, HRES, S5) since 2018. Dr. Zuo is also in charge of assimilation of ocean observations (in-situ and satellite) with the ECMWF ensemble ocean data assimilation system, including impact studies using OSE or coupled forecasts. Other tasks include development of model bias correction and forward model within the coupled data assimilation framework. Dr. Hao Zuo is a member of the WMO GBON Marine group; PoC for WMO Marine RRR; OOPC panel of GCOS/WCRP/CLIVAR; OPOS and OSE-Eval of OceanPredict.

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Dr. Ruby Leung, DOE Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Dr. L. Ruby Leung is a Battelle Fellow at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and a leading scientist in climate modeling, water cycle dynamics, and extreme weather events. She serves as the Chief Scientist for the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), overseeing a collaborative effort of earth scientists and mathematicians to enhance Earth system modeling capabilities. An elected member of the National Academy of Engineering and Washington State Academy of Sciences, Dr. Leung is also a fellow of the American Meteorological Society, American Association for the Advancement of Science, and American Geophysical Union. She has received numerous accolades, including the AGU Global Environmental Change Bert Bolin Award, the AGU Atmospheric Science Jacob Bjerknes Lecture, and the AMS Hydrologic Sciences Medal. Dr. Leung earned her BS in Physics and Statistics from the Chinese University of Hong Kong and her MS and PhD in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas A&M University. She has authored over 500 peer-reviewed publications.

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Dr. Timothy DelSole, George Mason University

Dr. Timothy DelSole is a climate scientist who studies the extent to which future climate changes can be predicted on time scales from weeks to years. He often uses multivariate statistics and stochastic turbulence models in his research. He is co-author of the text book "Statistical Methods for Climate Scientists" (Cambridge University Press; February 2022). Currently, he is a full professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences at George Mason University, and a senior research scientist at the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies. He has served as co-Chief Editor of Journal of Climate 2017-2021, and currently serves as Associate Editor of Journal of Climate, and BAMS Special Editor for State of the Climate.

After completing his doctorate in 1993 from Harvard University, he became a Global Change Distinguished Postdoctoral Fellow for two years and a National Research Council Associate for two years at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. In 1997, he joined the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies.

He was a contributing author for chapter 10 (Detection and Attribution) and reviewer for chapter 11 (Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5).

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Dr. Johnna Infanti, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Dr. Johnna Infanti is a Meteorologist in the Operational Prediction Branch (OPB) of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC). She primarily focuses on Weeks 3-4, Monthly, and Seasonal predictions of temperature and precipitation, as well as working with the CPC Key Messages Group to provide decision support services and communication during impactful climate events. Johnna has been working with CPC employees and the METplus team for many years to bring the METplus system to CPC and expand it to fit the timescales and needs of CPC operations.

Prior to her time at CPC, Johnna received her PhD from University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences with a primary focus on subseasonal to seasonal prediction skill and modeling. Johnna was a Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise Postdoctoral Fellow (PACE) where she worked to bring together decision makers in Everglades Restoration in Florida and climate scientists. She received her undergraduate degree in Meteorology from University of Massachusetts Lowell.

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Dr. Dillon Amaya, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

Dr. Dillon Amaya (he/him) is a research physical scientist at the Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories in Boulder, Colorado. Dillon came to PSL as a CIRES postdoctoral research fellow from 2020 to 2021. His main interests involve climate variability and change on seasonal-decadal timescales with an emphasis on tropical-extratropical interactions and air-sea feedbacks. His work further includes research into the dynamical drivers behind recent Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves. Dillon's current projects include investigating seasonal climate predictability limits of ocean parameters in the California Current System, with the goal of assisting decision makers responsible for managing sensitive marine ecosystems along the U.S. west coast.

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Dr. Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Dr. Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig is a Project Scientist at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research where his primary research interests are land surface model development with a focus on snow process enhancements, studies of the terrestrial water cycle inclusive of anthropogenic impacts, fire and drought prediction using machine learning, and data assimilation. Ronnie has made significant contributions to understanding how to merge information from globally applicable tools such as remote sensing satellites and land surface models to better understand human impacts on Earth's terrestrial water and energy budgets. The primary goal of his work is to provide or enhance tools to better inform management of water and food security.

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Dr. Gustavo Marques, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Dr. Gustavo Marques began his career as a coastal physical oceanographer, using observations and model simulations to investigate tidal eddy motions in the western Gulf of Maine for his MSc thesis. He specialized in ocean modeling during his PhD, conducting hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic simulations to examine the processes controlling Antarctic dense shelf water outflows. During his postdoctoral work, Gustavo transitioned from a "model user" to a "model developer." He is currently a Project Scientist in the Oceanographic Section of the Climate & Global Dynamics Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. His current responsibilities include leading the development of the Modular Ocean Model version 6 within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and acting as the co-chair and science liaison for the CESM Ocean Model Working Group. Gustavo's research focuses on enhancing the representation of ocean processes in climate models and understanding the ocean's role in the climate system.

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Dr. Cecilia Bitz, University of Washington

Dr. Cecilia Bitz is an atmospheric scientist who studies the role that sea ice plays in shaping the climate in high latitudes. She is interested not only in our present and future climates, but also climates of the past. She is actively engaged in research on improving prediction of Arctic sea ice and sea ice data assimilation, investigating wave-ice and coupled air-sea-ice interactions that control large-scale climate. She is co-chair of the Climate Working Group for Scientific Steering Committee of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Bitz has been called to testify to the U.S. Senate on Arctic climate change.

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Dr. Fanglin Yang, NOAA Environmental Modeling Center

Dr. Fanglin Yang is the Chief of the Physics and Dynamics Division at the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) within the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS). In this role, he oversees the advancement of atmospheric physics and dynamics within fully coupled earth system models across various temporal and spatial scales. He also shares the responsibility for facilitating the integration of these models into NWS operations for numerical weather and air quality forecasts and sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions.

Before assuming his current leadership role, Dr. Yang served as a project lead and spent over a decade at the same agency focusing on the development, diagnosis, and evaluation of the Global Forecast Systems (GFS) for medium-range weather forecasts. Notably, he was honored with the Department of Commerce 2020 Gold Medal for his contributions to the development and operational transition of GFS version 15, which introduced a new dynamical core. His career began at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center after graduating from UIUC.

Dr. Yang's contributions are also widely recognized through his publication of over 50 peer-reviewed journal articles on climate diagnosis, modeling, and numerical weather prediction. He fosters and participates in national and international collaborations and provides services to various meteorological organizations. Additionally, he serves as an editor and reviewer for several scientific journals and regularly participates in grant and proposal reviews.

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Dr. Barry Baker, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

Dr. Barry Baker is a physical research scientist at NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) working on various air composition models, both experimental and operational. He is also the lead of the Chemical Modeling and Emission Group at NOAA ARL.

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Dr. Jessica Meixner, NOAA Environmental Modeling Center

Dr. Jessica Meixner is a Physical Scientist in the Coupled Modeling Division at the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) within NOAA/NWS/NCEP. Jessica is serving as co-project lead for the transition to operations project for the next Global Forecast System, GFSv17 and is co-lead of the marine cross-cutting team for UFS-R20. She received her bachelors of science in Mathematics from Texas Tech University and a MS and PhD in Computational and Applied Mathematics from The University of Texas at Austin.

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Dr. Bing Fu, NOAA Environmental Modeling Center

Dr. Bing Fu is a physical scientist at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC. He has interests in numerical weather models, ensemble forecasting and S2S prediction. He has been working on tuning the stochastic physics in GEFS since he joined the EMC in 2015. He is one of the major developers of the current operational GEFSv12, and he is now co-leading the development of GEFSv13.

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Dr. Jim Kinter, NOAA Environmental Modeling Center

Jim Kinter is Director of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), Director of the Virginia Climate Center, and a Professor in the Climate Dynamics Graduate Program at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. After earning his doctorate in geophysical fluid dynamics at Princeton University in 1984, Jim served as a National Research Council Associate at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, a faculty member of the University of Maryland and a research scientist and executive director at the Institute of Global Environment and Society before joining Mason. Dr. Kinter has served on many national review panels for programs in weather and climate research and computational climate modeling. He is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society.

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Dr. Randall D. Koster, NASA Goddard Flight Center

Dr. Koster has worked at NASA/GSFC since September of 1987, first as a member of the Hydrological Sciences Branch, and currently as a member of the GMAO. His early work focused on the analysis of global water isotope geochemistry. Most of his tenure at GSFC, though, has been dedicated to two research thrusts: (i) the development of improved treatments of land surface physics for Earth system models, and (ii) the analysis of interactions between the land and atmosphere, using these models. He has examined many questions regarding land-atmosphere feedback, including: Can knowledge of soil moisture conditions at the beginning of a seasonal weather forecast improve the forecast? Can we find evidence in the observational record that variability in land surface states has an effect on rainfall, air temperature, and other atmospheric variables? He has coordinated multi-institutional analyses of land-atmosphere feedback for GEWEX and CLIVAR, components of the World Climate Research Programme. He serves on the SMAP Science Team, focusing on making sure that SMAP satellite-based soil moisture data is useful for climate studies and other applications.

With the advent of the GMAO in 2003, Koster has been given the responsibility of coordinating the land surface modeling activities at GSFC into a single land surface modeling system. This ever-evolving system is used extensively by the GMAO and is available for use by the NASA community.

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