Legacy Model Retirement - OSTI Modeling
NOAA/NCEP is in the midst of a major effort to unify and focus its numerical prediction of weather and broader earth systems within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) framework. One objective of this effort is to streamline significant portions of the current NCEP production suite, which are characterized by a large number of somewhat redundant modeling systems. These “legacy systems” will effectively be consolidated in a relatively small number of community-based UFS modeling applications. The new applications will subsume the forecast-guidance roles currently provided by the legacy systems and deliver functionally equivalent (or better) forecast guidance with fewer modeling systems. A key element in reaping the full benefit of this effort is decommissioning legacy systems in a timely manner after new UFS applications have been demonstrated to perform as well as, or better than, the legacy systems in terms of forecast skill and product delivery. Model retirement (decommissioning) is complicated by numerous factors and often resisted by users. Thus, we have developed an overarching, transparent plan to retire legacy operational modeling systems. Input from stakeholders is being utilized to inform development decisions, ensure that all upstream and downstream dependencies are identified, and develop transition plans for each forecast product. A timeline has been established for consolidating the functionality of operational models in UFS applications. Objective and well-vetted metrics (METplus) are being used to measure progress and determine when equivalence or improvement in prediction skill is achieved, based on comparison with the skill obtained with the current suite of operational products.
Consolidation Sequence |
Current Applications | Legacy Models (slated for retirement) |
UFS Target Applications | |||||||||
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1) Hurricane Models | Regional Hurricane 1 | HWRFv13.2 | HAFSv1 | HAFSv2 | HAFSv3 | HAFSv4 | ||||||
Regional Hurricane 2 | HMONv3.2 | |||||||||||
2) Regional Models | Regional High Resolution CAM 1 | HiRes Window v8.1 | RRFSv1 | Short-Range Regional Rapid Refresh |
RRFSv2/ WoFSv1 & 3D RTMA/ URMAv1 |
Short-Range Regional Rapid Refresh & Regional Atmospheric Composition |
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Regional High Resolution CAM 2 | NAM Nests/Fire Wx v4 | |||||||||||
Regional High Resolution CAM 3 | HRRRv4.1 | |||||||||||
Regional High Resolution CAM Ensemble | HREFv3.1 | |||||||||||
Regional Air Quality | AQMv7 | |||||||||||
Regional Weather Analysis | RTMA / URMAv2.8 | |||||||||||
3) Global Models | Global Weather Waves and Global Analysis | GFS.GDASv16.3 | GFSv17/ GDASv17/ GEFSv13/ GODASv3 |
Coupled Global Prediction, Reanalysis, & Seasonal Reforecast |
GFSv18/ GEFSv14/ SFSv1 |
Medium Range & Subseasonal Marine & Cryosphere Seasonal |
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Global Weather & Waves Ensemble, Aerosols | GEFSv12.3 | |||||||||||
Global Ocean Analysis | GODASv2 | |||||||||||
Short-Range Regional Ensemble | SREFv7.1 | |||||||||||
Regional Weather (Parent Domain) | NAMv4.2 | |||||||||||
Regional Weather (Parent Domain) | RAPv5.1 | |||||||||||
Global Ocean and Sea Ice | RTOFSv2.3 | |||||||||||
Seasonal Climate | CDAS2v1.2/CFSv2.3 | |||||||||||
4) Space Weather | Space Weather 1 - WAM/IPE | WFSv1.0 | WFSv2 | Space Weather | ||||||||
SPACE Weather 2 | ENLILv1 |
Retirement of Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON) will follow the implementation of Hurricane and Analysis Forecast System version 2
The retirement of the HiRes Window, NAM Nests (including the Fire Weather nest), HRRR, and HREF modeling systems will follow the implementation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System version 1.
The SREF, NAM, RAP, and GODAS systems will be retired after the joint Global Forecast System version 17 and Global Ensemble Forecast System version 13 Implementations
Whole Atmosphere Model-Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (WAM-IPE)
The ENLIL model will be retired after the implementation of the Whole Atmosphere Model-Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics