Projects Funded by the Weeks 3-4 Program

The Weeks 3-4 Program has been supporting projects at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) over the past several years. The following is a list of projects completed recently

 
Title Federal Project Manager(s) Technical Lead(s) Period of Performance
Evaluate the Potential of a Blocking Predictor for Improved Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks (Webinar) Mike Halpert Cory Baggett FY21
Evaluate Potential of Machine Learning Forecast Tools for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks Matthew Rosencrans Kyle MacRitchie, Greg Jennrich FY21
Improve Predictions of Flash Drought Development to Enhance the CPC Monthly Drought Outlook Subproject 1: Drought Prediction Tool Development Dave DeWitt Gwen Chen FY21
Continued Development of Week 2-4 Excessive Heat Outlook and Forecast Guidance Products in Consultation with Core Partners (Webinar) Jon Gottschalck Evan Oswald, Adam Allgood FY21
Explore and Experimentally Implement Internally Week-2 Favored Tropical Cyclone Track Envelope Information within the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook Jon Gottschalck Lindsey Long, Nick Novella, Adam Allgood FY21
Develop an Arctic Sea Ice Prediction System Using the FV3-Based Framework (Webinar) Wanqiu Wang Yanyun Liu, Weiyu Yang FY21
Develop and Evaluate Subseasonal Prediction Tools for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands using NMME and Other Multi-model Ensembles Mike Halpert Matthew Rosencrans FY21
AOP: Transition of CPC Arctic Sea Ice Innovation from CFFS framework to FV3-based UFS framework for inclusion in next seasonal coupled model Wanqiu Wang Wanqiu Wang FY20 
AOP: Evaluation of CPC sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction tools to inform water supply forecasts in collaboration with OWP, CBRFC, CNRFC, NWRFC Matthew Rosencrans, Wanqiu Wang Arun Kumar, Mingyue Chen FY20
AOP: Evaluation of periods of enhanced versus suppressed storm activity to inform week two planning in Alaska Hui Wang Wanqiu Wang FY20
AOP: Develop and evaluate sub-seasonal prediction tools for the Affiliated Pacific Islands using NMME and other multi-model ensembles Mike Halpert Matthew Rosencrans FY20
Improve predictions of flash drought development of enchance the CPC monthly drought outlook Dave DeWitt Gwen Chen, Yun Fan FY20
Evaluation of transition of the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook from weeks 1-2 to weeks 2-3 (Webinar) Jon Gottschalck Lindsey Long, Nick Novella FY20
Improvement and development of week 2-4 excessive heat forecast guidance products and outlooks Jon Gottschalck Evan Oswald, Adam Allgood FY20
Explore and develop forecast tools based on soil moisture for week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks Jon Gottschalck Yun Fan, Chung-Yu Wu FY20
Ensemble subsampling to improve weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation forecasts Mike Halpert Cory Baggett FY20
AOP: Develop and test a week 3-4 temperature and precipitation prediction tool based on stratospheric predictors in the Climate Testbed Mike Halpert Laura M. Ciasto, Cory F. Baggett, Jon Gottschalck, Daniel Harnos, Michelle L’Heureux, Craig Long, Stephen Baxter FY19
AOP: Evaluate Week 3-4 Arctic Sea Ice Melt and Freeze Forecasts for Transition to Operations Through the Climate Testbed
 		 Wanqiu Wang Wanqiu Wang FY19
AOP: Develop and test a consolidation tool for statistical and dynamical forecasts for week 3-4 temperature and precipitation in the Climate Testbed Mike Halpert Jon Gottschalck FY19
Develop a probabilistic format for precipitation and tropical cyclone activity for the Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook and test within the Climate Testbed Jon Gottschalck Lindsey Long, Nick Novella, Adam Allgood FY19
Evaluation of Week Two to Four Winter Precipitation Forecasts for 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 Through the Climate Testbed Dave DeWitt Huug van den Dool FY19
Develop excessive heat forecasts from subseasonal models and test within the Climate Testbed Matt Rosencrans Matt Rosencrans FY19
Develop and Evaluate the Drought Susceptibility Tool Through the Climate Testbed Muthu Chelliah Muthu Chelliah FY19
Development and evaluation of experimental severe weather forecasts for the week two timescale in the Climate Testbed Arun Kumar, Hui Wang Arun Kumar, Hui Wang FY19

Below is a list of recent projects in Weeks 3-4/S2S focus area that are funded through the OSTI NOFO (Notice of Funding Opportunities) competions. More information on NOFO grants and a complete list of funded projects can be found here 

Project Title Principle Investigator(s) Period of Performance
Linear Inverse Modeling for Coupled Analysis and Forecasting in the UFS Greg Hakim
University of Washington, Seattle, WA		 9/1/2020 -  8/31/2022
Improving Week 3-4 Weather Prediction through a Global Convection-Allowing Version of the UFS James Kinter
George Mason University, Fairfax, VA		 9/1/2020 -  8/31/2022
A Diagnostic Toolbox for Verification and Validation of Subseasonal Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Amy Butler
CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/CSD, Boulder, CO		 9/1/2020 -  8/31/2022
The Impact of snowpack on NCEP Weeks 3-4 Forecasts Xubin Zeng and Michael Brunke
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ		  9/1/2018 - 8/31/2020
Developing A Community Suite of Process-oriented Model Diagnostics for Weather-Ready Nation Zhuo Wang
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL		  9/1/2018 - 8/31/2020
Development and evaluation of new statistical calibration methods for multi-model
ensemble week 3-4 probabilistic forecasts		 Andrew Robertson
IRI/Columbia University, Palisades, NY		  9/1/2018 - 8/31/2020
The Impact of Ocean Resolution in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) on the Subseasonal Forecast of Extreme Hydrological Events Cristiana Stan
George Mason University, Fairfax, VA		  9/1/2018 - 8/31/2020