2017 NGGPS Meetings and Presentations

NGGPS/MAPP
Principal Investigators Meeting
August 2-3, 2017
NCWCP Auditorium 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740

Goals:

To assess progress on the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS-) and Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP-) funded projects for the development of the NCEP unified prediction system focusing on modeling, data assimilation, validation, post-processing, and software infrastructure aspects
To enhance awareness at NCEP (specifically, EMC) of the full portfolio of NGGPS and MAPP projects advancing modeling (including data assimilation and infrastructure) and prediction
To enhance communication between NCEP and the external community PIs and enhance community engagement in NCEP’s activities.

Session 1: NGGPS-Funded NOAA Testbed Projects: Enhancing High-Impact Weather Forecasts

Session 2: Model Physics and Modeling Framework

Session 3: Data Assimilation

Session 4: Verification and Validation

Session 5: Multi-Model Ensembles, Post-Processing, and Applications

Agenda Day 1, Wednesday, August 2, 8:00 am - 4:30 pm EST

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8:00 am	Network/Beverage Service
8:30 am	Welcome STI Modeling Program Status/Overview - Ming Ji, Director NWS/OSTI Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections, (MAPP) Program Overview(.pdf) - Annarita Mariotti, Program Director NGGPS Grants/Funding Status(.pdf) - Christopher Hedge, NWS/STI
Session 1: NGGPS-Funded NOAA Testbed Projects: Enhancing High-Impact Weather Forecasts (Note: the remaining sessions include testbed-affiliated projects supported by MAPP.)
9:00 am	Session 1 Chair (.pdf) - Paula Davidson
9:05 am	The subseasonal-to-seasonal variability of Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and its influence on forecasts for weeks 3-4(.pdf) - Cristiana Stan, George Mason University
9:25 am	Unified GW Physics and Data Assimilation in the Vertically Extended Atmosphere Models (.pdf) - Valery Yudin, University of Colorado
9:45 am	Developing and Testing a High-Resolution Ensemble-Based 6-10 Day Forecast System for Atmospheric Rivers and Heavy Precipitation over the Western U.S.(.pdf) - Cliff Mass, University of Washington
10:05 am	Information Extraction and Verification of Convection-Allowing Models for Tornado Forecasting (.pdf) - Israel Jirak, NOAA/SPC
10:25 am	Break
10:40 am	Exploitation of Ensemble Prediction System Infrormation in Support of Atlantic Tropcial Cyclogenesis Prediction (.pdf) - Christopher Thorncraft, University at Albany
11:00 am	Test & Evaluation of Rapid Post-Processing & Information Extraction From Large Convection Allowing Ensembles Applied to 0-3hr Tornado Outlooks(.pdf) - James Correia, NOAA/SPC OU/CIMMS
11:20 am	Improvement of Convective/Severe Weather Prediction through an Integrative Analysis of WRF Simulations and NEXRAD/GOES Observations over the CONUS(.pdf) - Xiquan Dong, University of Arizona
11:40 am	The Development of the North Pacific Jet Phase Diagram at the NCEP-WPC as a Tool to Characterize the Upper-Troposheric Flow Pattern(.pdf) - Lance Bosart, University of Albany
12:00 pm	Lunch (orders taken in advance)
Session 2: Model Physics and Modeling Framework - Co-chairs: Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC), Jin Huang (CPO.ESSM)
1:05 pm	Improving Lake Process Prediction within the Climate Forecast System for North America (.pdf) - Jiming Jin, Utah State University
1:25 pm	Improving Climate Forecast System (CFS) through enhancing the Noah-MP community Land Model (.pdf) - Fei Chen, NCAR
1:45 pm	COLA Contributions to NGGOS(.pdf) - Jim Kinter George Mason University
2:05 pm	Update from the Model Diagnostics Task Force(.pdf) - David Neelin, University of California Los Angeles
2:25 pm	Break
2:40 pm	Coupled Modeling Infrastructure Capabilities(.pdf) - Cecilia DeLuca, NESSII/University of Colorado
3:00 pm	Improving Prediction of Large-Scale Regime Transitions (.pdf) - Paul Roebber, University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee
3:20 pm	Towards Advancing the MJO and 1-30 day Weather Forecasting in the Fully Coupled NGGPS(.pdf) - Joshua Xiouhua Fu, IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa
4:00 pm	Evaluating the Impact of Cloud-aerosol-Precipitation Interaction (CAPI) Schemes on Rainfall forecast in the NGGPS(.pdf) - Zhanqing Li, University of Maryland
4:20 pm	Q&A/Guided discussion by the chairs
4:30 pm	Adjourn

Agenda Day 2, Thursday, August 3, 8:00 am - 5:00 pm EST

8:00 am	Network/Beverage service
Session 3 - Data Assimilation - Co-chairs: Daryl Kleist (NCEP/EMC), Ron Gelaro (NASA)
8:35 am	Development of the Next Phase of NLDAS for Improved Drought Monitoring and Progress Towards its Operational Transition (.pdf) - David Mocko, SAIC at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
8:55 am	Upgrading the CPC Operational Ocean Monitoring to an Eddy-permitting Global Ocean Analysis Using the Hybrid Global Ocean Data Assimilation System as a Replacement for GODAS (.pdf) - Travis Sluka, Climate Prediction center and Universality of Maryland
9:15 am	Enhancing Surface Data Assimilation and Near-Surface Weather Forecasts in NGGPS through Improved Coupling between the Land Surface and Atmosphere (.pdf) - Zhaoxi Pu, University of Utah
9:35 am	Implementing of lognormal humidity and cloud-related control variables for the NCEP GSI hybrid EnVAR Assimilation scheme (.pdf) - Steven Fletcher, CIRA/CSU
9:55 am	Break
10:10 am	Mike Farrar, Director, EMC
10:25 am	Development toward NCEP’s fully-coupled global forecast and data assimilation system: A coupled wave–ocean system (.pdf) - Arun Chawla, EMC
10:45 am	A High-Resolution Blended Snow Depth Analysis for NGGPS (.pdf) - Cezar Kongoli, University of Maryland
11:05 am	Poster Session List - area outside of conf. center and auditorium
12:00 pm	Lunch (orders taken in advance)
Session 4 - Verification and Validation - Co-chairs Tara Jensen (NCAR), Jeff Craven (NWS/MDL)
1:05 pm	Advancing Forecast Verification and Model Development Efforts through a Flexible Satellite-Based Verification System for the Global Forecasting System (.pdf) - Jason Otkin (University of Wisconsin-Madison / CIMSS / SSEC
1:25 pm	Illustration of a Processes-Based Evaluation System for Tracing Systematic Forecast Error Evolutions in a NWP model (.pdf) - Ming Cai, Florida State University
Session 5 - Multi-Model Ensembles, Post-Processing and Applications - Chair: Jeff Craven
1:55 pm	Seasonal Climate Forecasting Applied to Wildland Fire Management in Alaska (.pdf) - Uma Bhatt, University of Alaska - Fairbanks
2:10 pm	Bridging the gap in NOAA's extended and long range prediction systems through the development of new forecast products for weeks 3 and 4 (.pdf) - Nat Johnson, Princeton University
2:30 pm	Towards version 2 of the global subseasonal excessive heat outlook system (SEHOS-GLOB) (.pdf) - Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland
2:50 pm	Break
3:05 pm	Increasing Forecast Skill through Bridging of Climate Teleconnections: A Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Prediction System (.pdf) - Dan Collins, Climate Prediction Center
3:25 pm	The SubX Project (.pdf) - Ben Kirtman, University of Miami
3:45 pm	Monitoring and Prediction of Flash Droughts over the United States (.pdf) - Kingtse Mo, Climate Prediction Center
4:05pm	Weather regime diagnostic tools for sub-monthly ensemble forecasts (.pdf) - Andrew Robertson, IRI, Columbia University
4:25pm	Validation of Significant Weather Features and Processes in Operational Models Using a Cyclone Relative Approach (.pdf) - Brian Colle, Stony Brook University
4:45pm	Q&A/guided discussion by the chairs / Wrap-up
5:00pm	Adjourn

Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) Meeting (August 1-3, 2017)

SIP working groups discussed high points of their projects and breakout groups developed a write-up of the SIP effort and future directions, and presented the draft document to the UMAC*. *UMAC is a sub-committee of the UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP Administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

AGENDA
Day 1: Tuesday, August 1, 2017, 8:00am-5:00pm

8:00 am Networking + Beverage service

8:30 am Welcome/Introduction (Mike Farrar, NWS/NCEP/EMC Director)

SIP WG summaries/updates

8:40 am Draft Governance document (Ricky Rood, Univ. of Michigan)

9:10 am Draft Comms/Outreach Plan (Tim Schneider, NWS/OSTI)

9:20 am SIP Annex 1, NGGPS model suites planned for EMC Ops (Vijay Tallapragada, NWS/NCEP/EMC)

9:30 am SIP Annex 2, System Architecture WG

9:40 am SIP Annex 3, Infrastructure WG

9:50 am SIP Annex 4, Dynamics and Nesting WG

10:00 am SIP Annex 5, Model Physics WG

10:10 – 10:30 BREAK

10:40 am SIP Annex 6, Data Assimilation WG

10:50 am SIP Annex 7, Convective Allowing Models (CAM) WG

11:00 am SIP Annex 8, Marine Models WG

11:10 pm SIP Annex 9, Land Surface Models and Hydrology WG

11:20 pm SIP Annex 10, Aerosols & Atmospheric Composition WG

11:30 pm SIP Annex 11, Ensembles WG

11:40 pm SIP Annex 12, Post-processing WG

11:50 pm SIP Annex 13, Verification WG

12:00 pm LUNCH (orders taken in advance)

Open discussion and SIP WG breakouts (TBD)

1:00 pm Identify next steps for meeting (e.g., major issues to address, ad hoc breakout groups)

OPEN DISCUSSION or BREAKOUTS (TBD)

3:00 – 3:30 BREAK

3:30 pm OPEN DISCUSSION or BREAKOUTS (TBD)

4:45 pm Day-1 Wrap-up

5:00 pm ADJOURN for the day

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DAY 2: Wednesday, August 2, 2017, 8:00am-5:00pm

8:00 am Network/Beverage service

8:30 am Day-1 recap + discuss specific steps for Day-2

OPEN DISCUSSION or BREAKOUTS (TBD)

10:00 – 10:30 BREAK

10:30 am OPEN DISCUSSION or BREAKOUTS (TBD)

12:00 pm LUNCH (orders taken in advance)

1:00 pm OPEN DISCUSSION or BREAKOUTS (TBD)

3:00 – 3:30 BREAK

3:30 pm OPEN DISCUSSION or BREAKOUTS (TBD)

4:45 pm Day-1 Wrap-up + Finalize Strategy/Selection for Writing/Briefing team(s)

5:00 pm ADJOURN for the day

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DAY 3: Thursday, Aug 3, 8:00am-5:00pm

8:00 am Network/Beverage service

8:30 am Writing/Briefing Team(s) -- OPEN DISCUSSION or BREAKOUTS (TBD)

BREAK to be Ad Hoc during this period

11:00 am NGGPS Poster Session (area outside of conference center and auditorium; list next page)

12:00 pm LUNCH (orders taken in advance)

1:00 pm SIP Presentation and Discussion with UMAC and partner agency reps

3:00 – 3:30 BREAK

3:30 pm SIP Presentation and Discussion with UMAC and partner agency reps (continued)

4:45 pm Wrap-up

5:00 pm ADJOURN

Visit the NCAR Research Applications Laboratory Website for Meeting Details and Presentations.

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