Weeks 3-4 Projects - OSTI Modeling
Weeks 3-4 Program
Internal Funded Projects
| Title | Federal Project Manager(s) | Technical Lead(s) | Period of Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Develop experimental objective ROD potential prediction product to inform the CPC operational GTH outlook | Jon Gottschalck | Lindsey Long, Nick Novella, Ryan Bolt | FY24 |
| Complete evaluation of 2023 experimental Week-3 extreme heat predictions and determine requirements, suitability and realtime plan for CPC internal demonstration of experimental Week-3 extreme heat outlooks during 2024 | Jon Gottschalck | Evan Oswald, Adam Hartman | FY24 |
| Development of an Improved Week 3-4 Precipitation Consolidation First Guess | Cory Baggett, Jon Gottschalck | Lisi Pei, Daniel Barandiaran | FY24 |
| Title | Federal Project Manager(s) | Technical Lead(s) | Period of Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Improve subseasonal and seasonal sea ice forecast with upgraded forecast model and improved initialization | Wanqiu Wang | Yanyun Liu, Jieshun Zhu | FY23 |
| Explore potential for including Week 2-4 drought predictions in the CPC Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH) | Jon Gottschalck | Lindsey Long, Nick Novella, Adam Allgood, Ryan Bolt | FY23 |
| Explore potential of producing Week 3 excessive heat predictions | Jon Gottschalck | Evan Oswald, Adam Hartman | FY23 |
| Development of an Improved Week 3-4 Temperature Consolidation First Guess | Cory Baggett, Jon Gottschalck | Daniel Barandiaran | FY23 |
| Title | Federal Project Manager(s) | Technical Lead(s) | Period of Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evaluate and implement hybrid statistical dynamical forecast tools and evaluate ML/AI tools for extreme heat applications | Jon Gottschalck | Evan Oswald, Adam Allgood | FY22 |
| Develop and evaluate objective probabilistic temperature guidance to inform the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH) | Jon Gottschalck | Lindsey Long, Nick Novella | FY22 |
| Conversion of Week 3-4 Temperature Outlooks from 2-class to 3-class System | Mike Halpert, Jon Gottschalck | Cory Baggett | FY22 |
| Comparison of GEFSv12 with Offline NOAH and Leaky Bucket | Hailan Wang | Andrew Badger, Li Xu | FY22 |
| Develop an Arctic Sea Ice Prediction System Under FV3-Based Framework | Wanqiu Wang | Yanyun Liu, Jieshun Zhu | FY22 |
| Title | Federal Project Manager(s) | Technical Lead(s) | Period of Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evaluate the Potential of a Blocking Predictor for Improved Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks (Webinar) | Mike Halpert | Cory Baggett | FY21 |
| Evaluate Potential of Machine Learning Forecast Tools for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks | Matthew Rosencrans | Kyle MacRitchie, Greg Jennrich | FY21 |
| Improve Predictions of Flash Drought Development to Enhance the CPC Monthly Drought Outlook Subproject 1: Drought Prediction Tool Development | Dave DeWitt | Gwen Chen | FY21 |
| Continued Development of Week 2-4 Excessive Heat Outlook and Forecast Guidance Products in Consultation with Core Partners (Webinar) | Jon Gottschalck | Evan Oswald, Adam Allgood | FY21 |
| Explore and Experimentally Implement Internally Week-2 Favored Tropical Cyclone Track Envelope Information within the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook | Jon Gottschalck | Lindsey Long, Nick Novella, Adam Allgood | FY21 |
| Develop an Arctic Sea Ice Prediction System Using the FV3-Based Framework (Webinar) | Wanqiu Wang | Yanyun Liu, Weiyu Yang | FY21 |
| Develop and Evaluate Subseasonal Prediction Tools for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands using NMME and Other Multi-model Ensembles | Mike Halpert | Matthew Rosencrans | FY21 |
| Title | Federal Project Manager(s) | Technical Lead(s) | Period of Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| AOP: Transition of CPC Arctic Sea Ice Innovation from CFFS framework to FV3-based UFS framework for inclusion in next seasonal coupled model | Wanqiu Wang | Wanqiu Wang | FY20 |
| AOP: Evaluation of CPC sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction tools to inform water supply forecasts in collaboration with OWP, CBRFC, CNRFC, NWRFC | Matthew Rosencrans, Wanqiu Wang | Arun Kumar, Mingyue Chen | FY20 |
| AOP: Evaluation of periods of enhanced versus suppressed storm activity to inform week two planning in Alaska | Hui Wang | Wanqiu Wang | FY20 |
| AOP: Develop and evaluate sub-seasonal prediction tools for the Affiliated Pacific Islands using NMME and other multi-model ensembles | Mike Halpert | Matthew Rosencrans | FY20 |
| Improve predictions of flash drought development of enchance the CPC monthly drought outlook | Dave DeWitt | Gwen Chen, Yun Fan | FY20 |
| Evaluation of transition of the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook from weeks 1-2 to weeks 2-3 (Webinar) | Jon Gottschalck | Lindsey Long, Nick Novella | FY20 |
| Improvement and development of week 2-4 excessive heat forecast guidance products and outlooks | Jon Gottschalck | Evan Oswald, Adam Allgood | FY20 |
| Explore and develop forecast tools based on soil moisture for week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks | Jon Gottschalck | Yun Fan, Chung-Yu Wu | FY20 |
| Ensemble subsampling to improve weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation forecasts | Mike Halpert | Cory Baggett | FY20 |
| Title | Federal Project Manager(s) | Technical Lead(s) | Period of Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| AOP: Develop and test a week 3-4 temperature and precipitation prediction tool based on stratospheric predictors in the Climate Testbed | Mike Halpert | Laura M. Ciasto, Cory F. Baggett, Jon Gottschalck, Daniel Harnos, Michelle L'Heureux, Craig Long, Stephen Baxter | FY19 |
| AOP: Evaluate Week 3-4 Arctic Sea Ice Melt and Freeze Forecasts for Transition to Operations Through the Climate Testbed | Wanqiu Wang | Wanqiu Wang | FY19 |
| AOP: Develop and test a consolidation tool for statistical and dynamical forecasts for week 3-4 temperature and precipitation in the Climate Testbed | Mike Halpert | Jon Gottschalck | FY19 |
| Develop a probabilistic format for precipitation and tropical cyclone activity for the Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook and test within the Climate Testbed | Jon Gottschalck | Lindsey Long, Nick Novella, Adam Allgood | FY19 |
| Evaluation of Week Two to Four Winter Precipitation Forecasts for 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 Through the Climate Testbed | Dave DeWitt | Huug van den Dool | FY19 |
| Develop excessive heat forecasts from subseasonal models and test within the Climate Testbed | Matt Rosencrans | Matt Rosencrans | FY19 |
| Develop and Evaluate the Drought Susceptibility Tool Through the Climate Testbed | Muthu Chelliah | Muthu Chelliah | FY19 |
| Development and evaluation of experimental severe weather forecasts for the week two timescale in the Climate Testbed | Arun Kumar, Hui Wang | Arun Kumar, Hui Wang | FY19 |