Wind Analysis Downscaling - OSTI Modeling
Wind Analysis Downscaling
The Consumer Option for an Alternative System to Allocate Losses (COASTAL) Act requires a wind analysis and to estimate the strength and timing of damaging winds at a given, “parcel-scale” over-land location in the area impacted by the tropical cyclone and to drive surge and wave models for estimating the water damage. Since parcels are approximately 100 m in extent, and feasible wind analyses are in the 1,000-2,500 m range, some further estimate of wind at the parcel scale must be derived using a “downscaling” technique. Since downscaling techniques are at the edge of current technology, there may be no generally accepted algorithm and some effective familiarity with past literature will be necessary initially. Once an algorithm is chosen, extensive research and development (R&D) will likely be necessary. Furthermore, since wind gusts are generally the major factor in generating wind damage, an emphasis must be placed on developing and validating a “gust analysis” (GU) from available information including direct observations, a background field generated by the NOAA Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system and the Unrestricted Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (URMA).