FY20 Weeks 3-4 Competition: Awardees - OSTI Modeling
Proposals pertaining to the advancement of the Weeks 3-4 Program will contribute to the development of coupled data assimilation approaches; extending the forecast of the UFS from 3 weeks to seasonal timescales; process-based diagnostic tools and seasonal to subseasonal validation/verification metrics for the coupled system; and addressing challenges in subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction that project onto NOAA requirements for weeks 3-4 forecast products (see details in NOAA-NWS-NWSPO-2020-2006290).
For the Weeks 3-4 competition, 3 proposals were awarded with individual award amounts ranging from $100,000 to $250,000 per year for up to two years. Project start date is September 1, 2020. Details of the projects are summarized in the table below.
Project Title |
PI/co-PIs | Affiliation |
|---|---|---|
| Linear Inverse Modeling for Coupled Analysis and Forecasting in the UFS | Greg Hakim | University of Washington |
|
Matthew Newman Steve Penny |
NOAA/OAR/ESRL & CIRES | |
| Chris Synder | NCAR | |
| Improving Week 3-4 Weather Prediction through a Global Convection-Allowing Version of the UFS |
Jim Kinter Ben Cash |
GMU |
| Vijay Tallapragada | NOAA/NWS/EMC | |
| A Diagnostic Toolbox for Verification and Validation of Subseasaonal Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling | Eric Ray | CIRES/CU |
| Judith Perlwitz | NOAA/OAR/ESRL/PSL | |
| Laura Ciasto | NOAA/NWS/CPC |
Publications and Presentations
Hakim
Hakim, G. J., C. Snyder, S. G. Penny, and M. Newman, 2022: Subseasonal forecast skill improvement from strongly coupled data assimilation with a linear inverse model. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL097996. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097996
RayLawrence, Z.D., Abalos, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Butler, A.H., Calvo, N., de la Cámara, A., Charlton-Perez, A.,Domeisen, D.I. V, Dunn-Sigouin, E., Garcia-Serrano, J., Garfinkel, C.I., Hindley, N.P., Jia, L., Jucker, M., Karpechko, A.Y., Kim, H., Lang, A.L., Lee, S.H., Lin, P., Osman, M., Palmeiro, F.M., Perlwitz, J., Polichtchouk, I., Richter, J.H., Schwartz, C., Son, S.-W., Statnaia, I., Taguchi, M., Tyrrell, N.L., Wright, C.J. & Wu, R.W.-Y., 2022. Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3(3), 977–1001. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022
PresentationsHakim
Hakim GJ, Snyder C, Penny SG, Newman M (2022): Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Data Assimilation with Linear Inverse Models. 26th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), 102nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, January 2022.
Hakim, G. J., C. Snyder, S. G. Penny, and M. Newman, 2022: Coupled Atmosphere--Ocean Data Assimilation with Linear InverseModels, WCRP/WWRP Data Assimilation Symposium 13 September 2021./p>
Hakim, G. J., C. Snyder, S. G. Penny, and M. Newman, 2022: Coupled Atmosphere--Ocean Data Assimilation with Linear Inverse Models. 26th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); 27 January 2022/p>
RayElsbury D, Butler AH, Lawrence ZD, Perlwitz J, Ciasto LM, Ray E (2022): A Diagnostic Toolbox: Assessing the QBO Influence on NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) MJO Skill, 102nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, January 2022.
Lawrence ZD and co-authors (2022): Stratosphere and Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling Biases in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecast Models: An International SNAP Community Effort (Invited), 102nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, January 2022. /p>
Lawrence ZD (2021): Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling: An overview of concepts and links to recent climate extremes. NCEP Climate Prediction Center, 26 January 2021./p>
Lawrence ZD (2021): A Toolbox for Verification & Validation of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Processes in Current and Future NOAA S2S Forecast Systems. Weeks 3-4/S2S Webinar Seminar Series, 1 February 2021, (Presentation) /p>
HFIP (Alan Brammer, Enrique Curchister, Ryan Torn)
Brammer
Brammer A., Schumacher AB, Grogan D, Dunion JP (2022): Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index and Global Ensemble Forecasts: Expanding to Global Basins and Evaluation of Real-Time 2021 Forecasts, 102nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, January 2022/p>
Brammer A, Grogan D, Schumacher AB, Dunion JP (2022): Development and Verification of a New Ensemble Global Genesis Index for Tropical Cyclones, 102nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, January 2022/p>
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index and Global Ensemble Forecasts: Prediction for the Atlantic and East Pacific Basins from 2018 to 2020 — 2022 AMS Annual — Grogan et. al./p> Torn
Torn
Yang, E. G., R. D. Torn, 2022: Diagnosis of biases in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System using innovation statistics within an earth-relative and storm-relative framework. 35th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. New Orleans, LA.