Lightning Probability - Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD)
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Products Guide
Lightning Probability
Short Description
Probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning at a given location over the next 30 minutes.
Subproducts
None
Primary Users
NWS: WFO, CWSU, AWC, SPC
FAA: Tower, TRACON, ARTCC, ATCSCC, AFSS
Other: EM
Input Sources
Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Density
Resolution
Spatial Resolution: 0.01o Latitude (~1.11 km) x 0.01o Longitude (~1.01 km at 25oN and 0.73 km at 49oN)
Temporal Resolution: 2 minutes
Product Creation
CG lightning probability is determined using an attribute-extraction algorithm detailed by Lakshmanan and Smith (2009) to train a model with storm properties, rather than pixel values of parameters thought to precede lightning initiation (e.g., reflectivity at -10°C). Inputs for the attribute-extraction algorithm include storm properties such as size, speed, aspect ratio, lightning density (determined using Vaisala’s National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL), and reflectivity isotherms).
Technical Details
References
Lakshmanan, V., and T. Smith, 2009: Data Mining Storm Attributes from Spatial Grids. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 26, 2353–2365.
Strengths
This product has proven more successful than the steady-state approach of simply advecting the lightning density field.
Limitations
Only uses CG lightning data from the Vaisala network.
Quality Control
This product uses some products (VIL, Reflectivity at xoC) derived from the 3D Reflectivity Cube, which means non-hydrometeorological data has been removed including: Ground clutter, anomalous propagation (AP), chaff, interference spikes, and bioscatterers (e.g., angels and ghosts).
Applications
Useful for tactical and short-term strategic decisions about air traffic routing.
Decision support services (DSS) for outdoor venues.
Example Images
Fig. 1: Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Probability over the next 30 minutes on 05 August 2014 at 2134Z.