Short Description

Probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning at a given location over the next 30 minutes.

Subproducts

None

Primary Users

NWS: WFO, CWSU, AWC, SPC

FAA: Tower, TRACON, ARTCC, ATCSCC, AFSS

Other: EM

Input Sources

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Density

Vertically Integrated Liquid

Reflectivity at x^oC

Resolution

Spatial Resolution: 0.01^o Latitude (~1.11 km) x 0.01^o Longitude (~1.01 km at 25^oN and 0.73 km at 49^oN)

Temporal Resolution: 2 minutes

Product Creation

CG lightning probability is determined using an attribute-extraction algorithm detailed by Lakshmanan and Smith (2009) to train a model with storm properties, rather than pixel values of parameters thought to precede lightning initiation (e.g., reflectivity at -10°C). Inputs for the attribute-extraction algorithm include storm properties such as size, speed, aspect ratio, lightning density (determined using Vaisala’s National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL), and reflectivity isotherms).

Technical Details

References

Lakshmanan, V., and T. Smith, 2009: Data Mining Storm Attributes from Spatial Grids. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 26, 2353–2365.