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ss3.30 forecast

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Dan Fu, modified 5 Years ago.

ss3.30 forecast

Youngling Posts: 46 Join Date: 12/14/16 Recent Posts

Dear SS3 team,

I run into an issue with the SS3.30 (lastest) constant catch forecasting, which doesn't appear to be working.

I simply set up a 10-year forecast with catch set to zero for all fleets. The SS3.24 forecast works as intended which shows SSB rapidly increasing (see attached SS3.24-forecast.png).
But the forecast for  SS3.30 files failed - the SSB crashed a few years into the projection period (see attached SS3.30-forecast.png).

Parameter estimates from the 3.30 are the same as the 3.24 (I used the ss_trans.exe for the conversion).

Running the forecast with alternative catch levels under 3.30 had the same issue

I have attached the input files for SS3.24 and the problem is very easy to reproduce.

Hope you could help me look into this issue - (Most likely I have missed some configuration in the 3.30 forecast file?)

Thanks for your help.

Dan 

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Richard Methot, modified 5 Years ago.

RE: ss3.30 forecast

Youngling Posts: 222 Join Date: 11/24/14 Recent Posts

Hi Dan,

Sorry that you ran into a problem here, we'll take a look.  Which version of 3.30 are you using?

Rick

DF
Dan Fu, modified 5 Years ago.

RE: ss3.30 forecast

Youngling Posts: 46 Join Date: 12/14/16 Recent Posts

Hi Rick, I am using the lastest version from vLab :3.30.15.

Note that in the model, the F for fleet 6 (longline) is extremely high,  although the the catch is very tiny. This is because the selectivity for fleet 6 is very  poorly estimated. But I don't think this is a separate issue and should not be what cause the problem as the projection works fine in 3.24, and the catch for all fleets are set to zero in the projection anyway.

 

Thanks for helping out.

 

Dan 

Richard Methot, modified 5 Years ago.

RE: ss3.30 forecast

Youngling Posts: 222 Join Date: 11/24/14 Recent Posts

Dan,

I have diagnosed the problem.  It is not related to setting the forecast catch = 0.  Rather it is a problem with the propagation of the forecast population agecomp from one time step to the next.  I see how to fix it and will get a new exe posted soon.  But I also want to hunt down when this problem got introduced.  A similar issue occurred for another user with age at settlement = 1.  That got fixed but now you encounter a similar problem with multiple seasons.  Top priority now.

Rick

DF
Dan Fu, modified 5 Years ago.

RE: ss3.30 forecast

Youngling Posts: 46 Join Date: 12/14/16 Recent Posts

Thanks Rick, that is very quick. Please keep me posted on the new release :)