Ongoing Social Science Activities

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Polygon Data for All Alerts

Modify Watch/Warning product production and dissemination methods to support polygon based alerts so that the area warned matches as close as possible to the area forecasters believe is under threat (gridded area), is able to provide equitable lead time, and is capable of providing actionable information. Polygons would better support geographic granularity in Wireless Emergency Alerts, mitigate Watches/Warnings alerted to entire zones/counties when forecaster-generated warning area is significantly smaller, and follow the hazard more closely in time as well as space.

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Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats -FACETs

The Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) framework transforms the forecast process by evolving from deterministic methods to a modernized approach that integrates probabilistic information and social science supported by adequate tools and training. Through the application of the FACETs framework, researchers, meteorologists and hydrologists can equip partners and the public with the best information possible to better support NOAA’s mission of science, service, and stewardship and to share knowledge and information with others.

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Modernized Forecast Operations Concept

The Modernized Forecast Operations Concept is a vision for a future of NWS operations where our foundation al datasets and the way our meteorologists think is fundamentally probabilistic. SBES literature that communicating uncertainty information increases understanding, increases trust, and improves decision-making in the users of our information. Through building deep relationships with our partners we can tailor this uncertainty information to the needs to ensure they can make the best decisions possible. 

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Hurricane Supplemental Efforts

Guiding the modernization of the tropical cyclone product suite is the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017. Specifically, Section 104 instructs NOAA to maintain a project to improve hurricane forecasting with the goal of incorporating risk communication research to create more effective watch and warning products.

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Winter Storm Severity Index

The purpose of the Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) is to provide NWS partners and the general public with an indication of the level of winter precipitation (snow and ice) severity and its potential related societal impacts.