Strengths

Lightning Jump can help identify storms that may produce severe weather in the short-term. Rapid increases in lightning flash rate, or “lightning jumps,” are coincident with pulses in the storm updraft and typically precede severe weather, such as tornadoes, hail, and straight-line winds, at the surface by tens of minutes.

Limitations

In the Schultz et al. (2009) and (2011) studies, Lightning Mapping Array Data was used to determine the 2 standard deviation threshold. 

However, with the change to Earth Networks Total Lightning Network data for the lightning jump product, the false alarm rate was increased at lower standard deviation levels, including at the 2 standard deviation level. Therefore, using higher magnitudes (at least 3 standard deviation, likely 4-5 standard deviation) to quantify lightning jumps may be more useful to forecasters.

Quality Control

Applications

Assess trends in thunderstorm intensity (primary application)

Detect thunderstorms in areas with little to no radar coverage

Tactical and short-term air traffic routing decisions

Useful while providing integrated decision support services (IDSS) for outdoor venues and events

Example Images

Fig. 1: Lightning Jump product example in AWIPS