VLab Forum Members,
The slides for today's VLab Forum, scheduled for 3:35 PM (EST),
are available on the VLab Forum page.
Geoff Wagner and Samantha Camposano will present today's talk
entitled "Using Feature-Based Methods to Improve Tropical
Cyclone Forecasts in the National Blend of Models". We hope you
can attend.
To participate in the forum, please register
for the webinar. Note: This forum is virtual only.
Abstract:
Blending multiple model forecasts using bias correction and
whole-grid weighted averages can be challenging for discontinuous,
high magnitude forecast features such as Tropical Cyclones (TCs).
Additionally, it can be problematic to smoothly marry the blended
Direct Model Output (DMO) inputs with the official National
Hurricane Center (NHC) gridded forecast product (wTCM). These
challenges can result in forecast oddities such as TCs with multiple
eyes, washed out magnitudes, and unrealistically large areal
extents, which impacts forecasters’ workflow by requiring manual
editing to arrive at a reasonable starting point for a forecast. We
adapted feature-based techniques to address these challenges. First
identifying TC features from each respective model forecast, we then
create a hybrid feature by matching via a fuzzy logic method across
models and then stacking input forecasts over the center of each TC,
better preserving magnitudes and eliminating extraneous eye
features. This hybrid TC is then placed on a background National
Blend of Models (NBM) forecast grid. Our results so far have been
encouraging -- the technique has reliably created coherent TC
structures that preserve the wTCM track and wind speed forecasts
> 34 kts (when wTCM is present) and provide a more realistic
starting point for forecasters than current NBM Tropical guidance.
Feature matching is currently running live experimentally on WCOSS.
We plan on observing and making modifications over the course of
this current tropical season as we continue to share with and get
feedback from collaborators at NHC, before implementing with NBM
v4.1 in the future.
Agenda:
You can find the agenda for the Forum at the following link:
Talk Focus and R2O State:
- NWS Talk focuses mainly on the status of an existing R2O project
- Research Transition (laboratory work with clear R2O potential)
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