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RE: URMA tracking KLVM winds nicely

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Jeffrey Craven, modified 4 Years ago.

URMA tracking KLVM winds nicely

Youngling Posts: 90 Join Date: 9/24/12 Recent Posts
Wanted to pass along some good news.   I have been watching KLVM the past several days since the RAP/HRRR upgrade and have been very pleased with the improved wind speed matching to a high impact location where URMA and NBM have struggled to capture.  

Examples for four days are below for Dec 3-6th.   What is most impressive to me is that the first guess is being consistently raised 5-10 knots so it isn't all about the background field and the tuning efforts that EMC has worked on seem to be paying off. 

Obviously the downstream improvements to NBM will be appreciated in a couple of months as bias correction gradually catches on to the higher wind speeds.  

For clarity, URMA is the final analysis, URMA FG is First Guess background field from HRRR, and URMA obs is the METAR at KLVM.  

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JPC

Jeff Craven
Chief, Statistical Modeling Division (SMD)
National Weather Service, W/STI-12
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)
Room 10410, SSMC2
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(301) 427-9475 office
(816) 506-9783 cell/text
@jpcstorm

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Matthew Morris, modified 4 Years ago.

RE: URMA tracking KLVM winds nicely

Youngling Posts: 169 Join Date: 12/6/17 Recent Posts
Hi Jeff,

Thanks for sharing this case with us.  This is truly a team effort as improvements to the HRRR will benefit RTMA/URMA and, thus, the NBM.  We benefit greatly from stakeholder feedback and collaborating with GSL, etc..

Matt

On Mon, Dec 7, 2020 at 10:46 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Wanted to pass along some good news.   I have been watching KLVM the past several days since the RAP/HRRR upgrade and have been very pleased with the improved wind speed matching to a high impact location where URMA and NBM have struggled to capture.  

Examples for four days are below for Dec 3-6th.   What is most impressive to me is that the first guess is being consistently raised 5-10 knots so it isn't all about the background field and the tuning efforts that EMC has worked on seem to be paying off. 

Obviously the downstream improvements to NBM will be appreciated in a couple of months as bias correction gradually catches on to the higher wind speeds.  

For clarity, URMA is the final analysis, URMA FG is First Guess background field from HRRR, and URMA obs is the METAR at KLVM.  

image.png
image.png

image.png
image.png
JPC

Jeff Craven
Chief, Statistical Modeling Division (SMD)
National Weather Service, W/STI-12
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)
Room 10410, SSMC2
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(301) 427-9475 office
(816) 506-9783 cell/text
@jpcstorm

--
Jeffrey Craven RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/12811700VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


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Eric Guillot, modified 4 Years ago.

RE: URMA tracking KLVM winds nicely

Youngling Posts: 5 Join Date: 4/22/13 Recent Posts

Hey Jeff and Matt, quick question here that we're not understanding.

 

Jeff, you mention that the improved URMA wind speeds are a function of the new HRRR/RAP upgrade. But those same graphs also show the URMA first guess, the background field (which is primarily HRRR) is not very good. The URMA final wind analysis is being "bumped up" closer to observations based on the observation at this airport and surrounding weather station observations, right? 

So isn't this improved wind more a function of the RTMA/URMA system and not the HRRR upgrade?

Or, are you saying that before the HRRR upgrade, the winds were so extremely low that any "bumping up" by RTMA/URMA was still not enough?

Thanks for clarifying!

Jeffrey Craven, modified 4 Years ago.

RE: URMA tracking KLVM winds nicely

Youngling Posts: 90 Join Date: 9/24/12 Recent Posts
From what I see so far, it is the changes to RTMA/URMA handling of wind and better matching to obs that is the biggest contribution.  

The HRRR background winds have improved as well but in cases like this we used to see METARs thrown out and now RTMA/URMA is now longer meeting halfway but going much closer to the obs.

JPC

Jeff Craven
Chief, Statistical Modeling Division (SMD)
National Weather Service, W/STI-12
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)
Room 10410, SSMC2
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(301) 427-9475 office
(816) 506-9783 cell/text
@jpcstorm


On Tue, Dec 8, 2020 at 12:12 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

Hey Jeff and Matt, quick question here that we're not understanding.

 

Jeff, you mention that the improved URMA wind speeds are a function of the new HRRR/RAP upgrade. But those same graphs also show the URMA first guess, the background field (which is primarily HRRR) is not very good. The URMA final wind analysis is being "bumped up" closer to observations based on the observation at this airport and surrounding weather station observations, right? 

So isn't this improved wind more a function of the RTMA/URMA system and not the HRRR upgrade?

Or, are you saying that before the HRRR upgrade, the winds were so extremely low that any "bumping up" by RTMA/URMA was still not enough?

Thanks for clarifying!


--
Eric Guillot RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/12825158 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov