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RE: Using Feature-Based Methods to Improve Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the National Blend of Models - November VLab Forum

VLab Forum Members,

The November 2020 VLab Forum will occur on Wednesday the 18th at 3:35 PM (Eastern Time) and feature a presentation by Geoff Wagner entitled "Using Feature-Based Methods to Improve Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the National Blend of Models". We hope you can attend.

To participate in the forum, please register for the webinar. Note: This forum is virtual only.

Abstract:

Blending multiple model forecasts using bias correction and whole-grid weighted averages can be challenging for discontinuous, high magnitude forecast features such as Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Additionally, it can be problematic to smoothly marry the blended Direct Model Output (DMO) inputs with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) gridded forecast product (wTCM). These challenges can result in forecast oddities such as TCs with multiple eyes, washed out magnitudes, and unrealistically large areal extents, which impacts forecasters’ workflow by requiring manual editing to arrive at a reasonable starting point for a forecast. We adapted feature-based techniques to address these challenges. First identifying TC features from each respective model forecast, we then create a hybrid feature by matching via a fuzzy logic method across models and then stacking input forecasts over the center of each TC, better preserving magnitudes and eliminating extraneous eye features. This hybrid TC is then placed on a background National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast grid. Our results so far have been encouraging -- the technique has reliably created coherent TC structures that preserve the wTCM track and wind speed forecasts > 34 kts (when wTCM is present) and provide a more realistic starting point for forecasters than current NBM Tropical guidance. Feature matching is currently running live experimentally on WCOSS. We plan on observing and making modifications over the course of this current tropical season as we continue to share with and get feedback from collaborators at NHC, before implementing with NBM v4.1 in the future.

Agenda:

You can find the agenda for the Forum at the following link:

Talk Focus and R2O State:

  • NWS Talk focuses mainly on the status of an existing R2O project
  • Research Transition (laboratory work with clear R2O potential)

Add to Your Calendar:

To add this VLab Forum meeting to your calendar, please click on the following button.

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VLab Forum Members,

The November 2020 VLab Forum has  been rescheduled for Thursday the 19th at 3:35 PM (Eastern Time) and feature a presentation by Geoff Wagner entitled "Using Feature-Based Methods to Improve Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the National Blend of Models". We hope you can attend.

To participate in the forum, please register for the webinar (New Link). Note: This forum is virtual only.

Abstract:

Blending multiple model forecasts using bias correction and whole-grid weighted averages can be challenging for discontinuous, high magnitude forecast features such as Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Additionally, it can be problematic to smoothly marry the blended Direct Model Output (DMO) inputs with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) gridded forecast product (wTCM). These challenges can result in forecast oddities such as TCs with multiple eyes, washed out magnitudes, and unrealistically large areal extents, which impacts forecasters’ workflow by requiring manual editing to arrive at a reasonable starting point for a forecast. We adapted feature-based techniques to address these challenges. First identifying TC features from each respective model forecast, we then create a hybrid feature by matching via a fuzzy logic method across models and then stacking input forecasts over the center of each TC, better preserving magnitudes and eliminating extraneous eye features. This hybrid TC is then placed on a background National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast grid. Our results so far have been encouraging -- the technique has reliably created coherent TC structures that preserve the wTCM track and wind speed forecasts > 34 kts (when wTCM is present) and provide a more realistic starting point for forecasters than current NBM Tropical guidance. Feature matching is currently running live experimentally on WCOSS. We plan on observing and making modifications over the course of this current tropical season as we continue to share with and get feedback from collaborators at NHC, before implementing with NBM v4.1 in the future.

Agenda:

You can find the agenda for the Forum at the following link:

Talk Focus and R2O State:

  • NWS Talk focuses mainly on the status of an existing R2O project
  • Research Transition (laboratory work with clear R2O potential)

Add to Your Calendar:

To add this VLab Forum meeting to your calendar, please click on the following button.

Unsubscribe/subscribe to VLab Forum announcements (You must be logged into the VLab)

VLab Forum Members,

Just a quick reminder that the November 2020 VLab Forum will take place on Thursday the 19th at 3:35 PM (EST) and feature a presentation by Geoff Wagner and Samantha Camposano entitled "Using Feature-Based Methods to Improve Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the National Blend of Models". We hope you can attend.

To participate in the forum, please register for the webinar. Note: This forum is virtual only.

Abstract:

Blending multiple model forecasts using bias correction and whole-grid weighted averages can be challenging for discontinuous, high magnitude forecast features such as Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Additionally, it can be problematic to smoothly marry the blended Direct Model Output (DMO) inputs with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) gridded forecast product (wTCM). These challenges can result in forecast oddities such as TCs with multiple eyes, washed out magnitudes, and unrealistically large areal extents, which impacts forecasters’ workflow by requiring manual editing to arrive at a reasonable starting point for a forecast. We adapted feature-based techniques to address these challenges. First identifying TC features from each respective model forecast, we then create a hybrid feature by matching via a fuzzy logic method across models and then stacking input forecasts over the center of each TC, better preserving magnitudes and eliminating extraneous eye features. This hybrid TC is then placed on a background National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast grid. Our results so far have been encouraging -- the technique has reliably created coherent TC structures that preserve the wTCM track and wind speed forecasts > 34 kts (when wTCM is present) and provide a more realistic starting point for forecasters than current NBM Tropical guidance. Feature matching is currently running live experimentally on WCOSS. We plan on observing and making modifications over the course of this current tropical season as we continue to share with and get feedback from collaborators at NHC, before implementing with NBM v4.1 in the future.

Agenda:

You can find the agenda for the Forum at the following link:

Talk Focus and R2O State:

  • NWS Talk focuses mainly on the status of an existing R2O project
  • Research Transition (laboratory work with clear R2O potential)

Add to Your Calendar:

To add this VLab Forum meeting to your calendar, please click on the following button.

Unsubscribe/subscribe to VLab Forum announcements (You must be logged into the VLab)

VLab Forum Members,

The  slides for today's VLab Forum, scheduled for 3:35 PM (EST), are available on the VLab Forum page.  

Geoff Wagner and Samantha Camposano will present today's talk entitled "Using Feature-Based Methods to Improve Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the National Blend of Models". We hope you can attend.

To participate in the forum, please register for the webinar. Note: This forum is virtual only.

Abstract:

Blending multiple model forecasts using bias correction and whole-grid weighted averages can be challenging for discontinuous, high magnitude forecast features such as Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Additionally, it can be problematic to smoothly marry the blended Direct Model Output (DMO) inputs with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) gridded forecast product (wTCM). These challenges can result in forecast oddities such as TCs with multiple eyes, washed out magnitudes, and unrealistically large areal extents, which impacts forecasters’ workflow by requiring manual editing to arrive at a reasonable starting point for a forecast. We adapted feature-based techniques to address these challenges. First identifying TC features from each respective model forecast, we then create a hybrid feature by matching via a fuzzy logic method across models and then stacking input forecasts over the center of each TC, better preserving magnitudes and eliminating extraneous eye features. This hybrid TC is then placed on a background National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast grid. Our results so far have been encouraging -- the technique has reliably created coherent TC structures that preserve the wTCM track and wind speed forecasts > 34 kts (when wTCM is present) and provide a more realistic starting point for forecasters than current NBM Tropical guidance. Feature matching is currently running live experimentally on WCOSS. We plan on observing and making modifications over the course of this current tropical season as we continue to share with and get feedback from collaborators at NHC, before implementing with NBM v4.1 in the future.

Agenda:

You can find the agenda for the Forum at the following link:

Talk Focus and R2O State:

  • NWS Talk focuses mainly on the status of an existing R2O project
  • Research Transition (laboratory work with clear R2O potential)

Add to Your Calendar:

To add this VLab Forum meeting to your calendar, please click on the following button.

Unsubscribe/subscribe to VLab Forum announcements (You must be logged into the VLab)

VLab Forum Members,

For those of you who were unable to attend the November 19, 2020 VLab Forum, I have posted a recording of the talk given by Geoff Wagner and Samantha Camposano entitled "Using Feature-Based Methods to Improve Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the National Blend of Models" to the following page.

VLab Forum Recordings