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RTMA/URMA Performance for Hurricane Michael

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DV
Don Van Dyke, modified 5 Years ago.

RTMA/URMA Performance for Hurricane Michael

Youngling Posts: 6 Join Date: 4/12/16 Recent Posts

Hello, I wanted to bring the high profile case of Category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018 to the forefront for examination.  I went back and plotted an hourly max sustained wind swath and hourly max gust swath for the RTMA around when Michael made landfall.  Unfortunately, I don't have URMA files, so I can't see how much URMA improved on the RTMA.  However, the RTMA needed a lot of improvement in this case based on the plots I created.  I have attached these plots as well as the official NHC tropical storm and hurricane force sustained wind swath.  The PSH product from NWS Tallahassee which lists several wind speeds can be found here.  The max sustained wind swath is not even coherent.  The gust swath is at least coherent and not too bad for some peripheral areas, while other areas near the core remain way too low.  There was a 100 knot gust measured as far inland as extreme southwest Georgia.  I would imagine the lack of observations due to communication problems from power losses were interfering with the analysis in this case.  I'm wondering though that if tropical cyclones are this bad in general, then perhaps the URMA would benefit from pasting in some kind of gridded TCM wind analysis into the URMA, sort of like what offices do now as part of their forecast winds.  Regardless, as a forecaster I don't want to be graded against an analysis like this when it comes to verification.  Hopefully we'll see continued improvements. 

-- 
Don Van Dyke
Lead Forecaster
WSR-88D, Storm Data, and Verification Focal Points
NWS Tallahassee, FL
(850) 942-8833
“Until somebody shows me that a machine can out-forecast 
me, or out-forecast other people I consider good forecasters, 
I’m not willing to concede that a machine should be issuing a 
forecast.” –Al Moller

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JC
Jacob Carley, modified 5 Years ago.

RE: RTMA/URMA Performance for Hurricane Michael

Youngling Posts: 69 Join Date: 12/17/14 Recent Posts
Hi Don,

Thank you for sharing this example.  It is important to note that for this particular case RTMA/URMA version 2.6 was in operations.  Since then we've had an upgrade that featured a changed targeted to better fit observations (v2.7, December 2018).  Currently, there is a new version (v2.8) that is under evaluation and contains specific changes to enhance/improve the wind analysis, which was motivate by this kind of feedback.

Thanks,
Jacob





On Mon, Nov 11, 2019 at 8:20 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

Hello, I wanted to bring the high profile case of Category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018 to the forefront for examination.  I went back and plotted an hourly max sustained wind swath and hourly max gust swath for the RTMA around when Michael made landfall.  Unfortunately, I don't have URMA files, so I can't see how much URMA improved on the RTMA.  However, the RTMA needed a lot of improvement in this case based on the plots I created.  I have attached these plots as well as the official NHC tropical storm and hurricane force sustained wind swath.  The PSH product from NWS Tallahassee which lists several wind speeds can be found here.  The max sustained wind swath is not even coherent.  The gust swath is at least coherent and not too bad for some peripheral areas, while other areas near the core remain way too low.  There was a 100 knot gust measured as far inland as extreme southwest Georgia.  I would imagine the lack of observations due to communication problems from power losses were interfering with the analysis in this case.  I'm wondering though that if tropical cyclones are this bad in general, then perhaps the URMA would benefit from pasting in some kind of gridded TCM wind analysis into the URMA, sort of like what offices do now as part of their forecast winds.  Regardless, as a forecaster I don't want to be graded against an analysis like this when it comes to verification.  Hopefully we'll see continued improvements. 

-- 
Don Van Dyke
Lead Forecaster
WSR-88D, Storm Data, and Verification Focal Points
NWS Tallahassee, FL
(850) 942-8833
“Until somebody shows me that a machine can out-forecast 
me, or out-forecast other people I consider good forecasters, 
I’m not willing to concede that a machine should be issuing a 
forecast.” –Al Moller

--
Don Van Dyke RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/8165680 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov
BM
Brian Miretzky, modified 5 Years ago.

RE: RTMA/URMA Performance for Hurricane Michael

Youngling Posts: 47 Join Date: 1/8/13 Recent Posts
Hi Don,

Winds for tropical systems have been a long term issue for real time analyses because of some of the items you mentioned. This is an area for continued improvement for sure.

Thanks,

Brian Miretzky

On Mon, Nov 11, 2019 at 8:20 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

Hello, I wanted to bring the high profile case of Category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018 to the forefront for examination.  I went back and plotted an hourly max sustained wind swath and hourly max gust swath for the RTMA around when Michael made landfall.  Unfortunately, I don't have URMA files, so I can't see how much URMA improved on the RTMA.  However, the RTMA needed a lot of improvement in this case based on the plots I created.  I have attached these plots as well as the official NHC tropical storm and hurricane force sustained wind swath.  The PSH product from NWS Tallahassee which lists several wind speeds can be found here.  The max sustained wind swath is not even coherent.  The gust swath is at least coherent and not too bad for some peripheral areas, while other areas near the core remain way too low.  There was a 100 knot gust measured as far inland as extreme southwest Georgia.  I would imagine the lack of observations due to communication problems from power losses were interfering with the analysis in this case.  I'm wondering though that if tropical cyclones are this bad in general, then perhaps the URMA would benefit from pasting in some kind of gridded TCM wind analysis into the URMA, sort of like what offices do now as part of their forecast winds.  Regardless, as a forecaster I don't want to be graded against an analysis like this when it comes to verification.  Hopefully we'll see continued improvements. 

-- 
Don Van Dyke
Lead Forecaster
WSR-88D, Storm Data, and Verification Focal Points
NWS Tallahassee, FL
(850) 942-8833
“Until somebody shows me that a machine can out-forecast 
me, or out-forecast other people I consider good forecasters, 
I’m not willing to concede that a machine should be issuing a 
forecast.” –Al Moller

--
Don Van Dyke RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/8165680 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

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  • 2011 RTMA Paper (Weather and Forecasting)

    The most recent peer-reviewed paper on the RTMA. Published in Weather and Forecasting in 2011.
    7 Visits

  • Public RTMA/URMA Viewer

    Another viewer of the current RTMA/URMA, with an archive going back 24 hours. This version is open to the public, but does not contain information about the (many) restricted obs used.
    54 Visits

  • RAP downscaling conference preprint (23rd IIPS)

    This link is to a presentation from the (then) RUC group on how the downscaling process works. Although we now use the RAP, HRRR, and NAM, the logic of the downscaling code is mostly unchanged from this point.
    2 Visits