Forums

Back

Extreme NBM spread!?

JS
Jack Settelmaier, modified 3 Years ago.

Extreme NBM spread!?

Youngling Posts: 67 Join Date: 11/2/12 Recent Posts
[ Posting partly to test whether embedded images sent in via emails to discussion.wsup.vlab@noaa.gov is still working. ]

As I was perusing WIC data in the WSUP viewer, I happened to notice a near record cold NBM PMaxT (Mean) forecast (10) for next Thurs, Mar 10 at Billings, MT (KBIL).  The non-prob NBM MaxT for the same time is 20; 10 degrees different!  That seemed like a large difference, so I dug in further to the 1D point views.



Lo and behold, both that Thurs (10), as well as the MaxT for Wed, Mar 9 (11) have large spread between the PMaxT (Mean) and NBM.  



Looking ever closer, at the tails, reveals some of the largest overall spread I have seen, though I don't often look at Montana weather.  Both that Wed and Thurs have overall spread of 48 degrees!  Not shown, but the Tues, Mar 8 overall spread is 53 degrees, ranging from 50 to negative 3!!  Fri morn Mar11 NBM MinT has a range of 58!! (33 to negative 25)

Wed MaxT (37 to negative 11)


Thurs MaxT (44 to negative 4)


Got me thinking about the largest the NBM has ever forecast.  I know this is probably not atypical for such areas, but would be curious what kinds of maximum spreads others have seen.

Interested too, is how we've seen, for some events, the Obs STILL fall outside large ranges at times!!

--
Jack Settelmaier