d(NBM)/dt QPF clarification - Forums - Whole Story Uncertainty & Probabilities Viewer

Our upcoming release includes accumulation plots for Snow and Ice in dProg/dt Mode over 1-hr, 6-hr, 24-hr, 48-hr, and 72-hr periods.   I think we should be able to do the same for QPF.

DR

On 11/22/2021 9:36 AM, Jack Settelmaier wrote:

Sorry, if this has been covered.  I know you've bettered the d(NBM)/dt for QPF to show matched 6-hr QPF for when one enters dprog/dt mode when viewing Accumulated Precip.

I get that the Accumulated Precip can't be shown easily, since there would be calculations required to keep the Accum period consistent between runs, but perhaps there is an option to add the ability to show some compared Accumulation periods (72-hr periods?) in ptvis mode, so that one could more easily compare Accumulations for "events" that occur over periods longer than 6-hr?

I was trying to compare, on a chart like below, how the various QPF components have vastly now decreased their forecast QPF amounts in the N TX area for the feature (now more progressive and further east, and less convective) moving over DFW on Tgiving.  The forecasts at DFW have come down from some indicating as much as 5" over 3 days to now around 0.20"

I was hoping the d(Model)/dt views might help save from needing to peruse 2-D visuals of the various runs, which is the other method, to achieve such comparisons.

     

On Fri, Nov 5, 2021 at 1:53 PM Jack Settelmaier <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

Dave,

Thanks so much for the changes!

Here is a d(NBM)/dt I was able to make that shows the trend (or bouncing about) for the 6-hr period leading up to 0.48" of observed rainfall at KDFW (my added green line) ending 12UTC, Nov 3.  Also, in browsing about, I was able to see (2nd image below) a near-perfect 6-hr QPF, 0.46" , in the NDFD at Forecast Hour=42 before this 6-hr time period.

My next questions are:

1) Am I missing seeing a toggle for the Observed that could be plotted as a horizontal line across this view, or is that not there for this, or any, fields?

2) Any timeline for one being able to add the corresponding d(NDFD)/dt forecasts on top of this d(NBM)/dt, or is that functionality not in the works?

Alternatively, is there somewhere, after the demise of the 4-panel Blend Viewer, to see a d(NDFD)/dt plot/view   

On Thu, Nov 4, 2021 at 12:59 PM David Ruth <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

Jack,

Please note that Release v4.1 of WSUPaddresses your issue by now showing QPF06 in dProg/dt mode for Accumulated QPF.

We also cleaned up the redraw when you expand the Y-axis to reveal WIC records outside the default plot range.   The plot can be easily expanded by placing your cursor over the Y-axis and scrolling the mouse.

DR

On 10/1/2021 5:06 PM, David Ruth wrote:

Jack,

Glad to see you checking things out and trying to keep us honest.

1)  We are retrieving and showing current NDFD point forecasts from digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov on Point Vis in real time.   We are not storing previous NDFD forecasts.   Therefore, the current NDFD toggle gets dimmed when in dProg/dt Mode.

Daily WIC records for QPF only show up on the middle graph when a forecast nears record amounts.   As WIC records are for daily amounts (not 6-h or total accumulations), we didn't think it made sense to plot them elsewhere in Pt Vis for this element.

The example below is for KBWI.

https://wsup.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/ptvis/?cycledatetime=202110011700&station_id=KBWI&domain=conus&version=v4.0&dataset=nbm&windsuv=uv10&elmt=qpf06total

None of forecast amounts on your KDFW example are near the WIC daily record.

https://wsup.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/ptvis/?cycledatetime=2021100117&station_id=KDFW&domain=conus&version=v4.0&dataset=nbm&windsuv=uv10&elmt=qpf06total

2) What you are seeing in Dprog/dt mode is the Total Accumulated QPF as of the valid time indicated by the vertical slider.     For NBM issuances that are closer to the valid time, the amounts go down, because the number of periods included in the total decreases, which is probably not very useful.    Perhaps we should be plotting QPF06 in dprog/dt Mode instead.   That way, the change over time would be for the same period length forecast.

I'll see what we can do.

DR

On 10/1/2021 3:24 PM, Jack Settelmaier wrote:

I was in the WSUP taking a look at the new NDFD offerings, and 1) I'm not seeing that d(NDFD)/dt style views are possible, ala the style of the d(NBM)/dt view in the attached?  Is that correct, or do I need to dig more?  1a) I see the toggle for the "WIC Records" but toggling ON/OFF, though I see the High and Low dotted lines show up in the Legend, I see nothing plotted on the time/height display.  What am I missing, or is it not fully implemented yet in this view?

 

2) In the attached, I wanted to make sure I understand the view I'm seeing.  When I first choose the Accumulated QPF for a desired time, like 18UTC Sat Oct 2, as I have, when I enter in to the d(prog)/dt mode, I'm less clear on the time period for the QPF Accums that are shown.  I get that they all end at my desired time, of Sat afternoon, but what period are they accumulated over.  Surely they are not all 6-hr accumulations, but are more likely 24-hr accumulations, since when I made this the most recent NBM v4.0 run was 17UTC Fri Oct 1.  

 

If they ARE 24-hr QPF amounts, then that matches what I expected to see, but I have no easy text reference on the screen to know for sure, especially when the middle area shows 6-hr QPFs.   

https://wsup.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/ptvis/?cycledatetime=2021100117&station_id=KDFW&domain=conus&version=v4.0&dataset=nbm&windsuv=uv10&elmt=qpf06total

 

What I was exploring was how earlier in the week, ~Tuesday, forecast rainfall totals for KDFW from the NBM were on the order of 3.00" (for a 24-hr period ending Sat), but with subsequent runs since Tuesday, NBM forecast amounts have dropped considerably, down to about 1/10th of the earlier forecasts--now about 0.36" 

 

Is my interpretation correct?

 

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Jack Settelmaier Whole Story Uncertainty & Probabilities Viewer Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/wsup/forums/-/message_boards/view_message/17862895VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

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David Ruth Whole Story Uncertainty & Probabilities Viewer Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/wsup/forums/-/message_boards/view_message/17863112VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

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David Ruth Whole Story Uncertainty & Probabilities Viewer Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/wsup/forums/-/message_boards/view_message/18765200VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

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Jack Settelmaier

Digital Techniques Meteorologist

NOAA/NWS, Southern Region HQ

Fort Worth, TX 

Work Desk: 682 703 3685

Virtual Office (most core work hours): https://meet.google.com/ujm-ajkv-rhk

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Jack Settelmaier Whole Story Uncertainty & Probabilities Viewer Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/wsup/forums/-/message_boards/view_message/18785773VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

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Jack Settelmaier

Digital Techniques Meteorologist

NOAA/NWS, Southern Region HQ

Fort Worth, TX 

Work Desk: 682 703 3685

Virtual Office (most core work hours): https://meet.google.com/ujm-ajkv-rhk

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Jack Settelmaier Whole Story Uncertainty & Probabilities Viewer Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/wsup/forums/-/message_boards/view_message/19121481VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

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David Ruth Whole Story Uncertainty & Probabilities Viewer Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/wsup/forums/-/message_boards/view_message/19121572VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov