VLab Forum Members,
If you'd like to take a look at the slides for today's VLab Forum,
visit the VLab Forum
community. The meeting begins at 3:00 PM (Eastern Time) and
features a presentation titled "Development of Day 2 Calibrated
Probabilistic Severe Weather Guidance for Individual Severe
Hazards" which is being presented by Chris Karstens. We hope
you can attend.
To participate in the forum, please register
for the webinar.
Abstract:
Since 2014, the NWS Storm Prediction Center has produced 4-hr and
24-hr calibrated probabilistic guidance for severe convective
hazards (i.e., tornado/wind/hail) within the Day 1 convective period
(1200 - 1200 UTC). This guidance is produced from a combination of
maximum neighborhood probabilities of 1) HREF storm-attribute
variables and 2) SREF environmental variables paired with 3) the
historical frequency of a hazard report occurring within 25 miles of
a grid point. This guidance has been made internally available to
SPC forecasters and externally available via the HREF viewer hosted
on the SPC website. In May of 2021 this guidance became operational
in the NWS, allowing it to be distributed publicly via NCEP web
services, serve as a component to SPC prototype severe timing
guidance, and has been incorporated into NBMv4.1.
With recent upgrades to the HREF membership and scheduled
retirement of the SREF, developmental work has focused on developing
new calibrated guidance, that 1) utilizes environmental variables
from the GEFS (substituting for the SREF), 2) explores alternative
storm-attribute and environmental variables and combinations, 3)
explores alternative truth datasets (e.g., MESH), and 4) extends
into the Day 2 convective period. These new and existing versions of
calibrated guidance were evaluated in the 2022 and 2023 HWT Spring
Forecasting Experiment and objectively verified as part of a NOAA
Lapenta internship project. This presentation will provide an
overview of these developmental efforts, subjective HWT evaluations,
and objective verification metrics.
Agenda:
You can find the agenda for the Forum at the following link:
Slides:
You can find the presentation slides for the Forum at the following link:
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