The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) - OSTI Modeling
The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System on the Cloud
The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) supports NOAA’s hurricane forecast and warning capabilities through partnerships with the Environmental Modeling Center, National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Research Division.
The recently observed increase in the number of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic (the most recent season with below normal activity was 2015) highlights an ever-increasing need for the most accurate forecast possible.
Computer resources are vital to numerical weather prediction used to predict the track and intensity of hurricanes. Running multiple-model runs, also known as ensembles, creates a greater demand on supercomputing resources. To supplement finite resources, the Hurricane Ensemble in Real-time on the Cloud (HERC), a Hurricane Analysis Forecast System (HAFS) based ensemble, took to the Cloud for the 2023 hurricane season.
This StoryMap shares the results of NOAA’s effort and highlights two specific named storms, Idalia and Philippe, for a comparison of performance and forecast confidence.
HFIP Overview
The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) was established within NOAA in 2007, in response to devastating hurricanes such as Charley in 2004, and Wilma, Katrina, and Rita in 2005.
HFIP provides the unifying organizational infrastructure for NOAA and other agencies supporting their efforts to coordinate the hurricane research needed to achieve the HFIP goals, which include: improving the accuracy and reliability of hurricane forecasts, extending forecast lead time for hurricane forecasts, and decreasing forecast uncertainty or increasing confidence in hurricane forecasts. HFIP seeks to achieve these goals by accelerating the transition of model codes, techniques, and products from the research stage to operational implementation. HFIP’s focus on multi-organizational research activities to develop, demonstrate, and implement enhanced operational modeling capabilities has dramatically improved numerical forecast guidance.
Re-established as the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) under The Weather Act 2017, HFIP continues to advance through the development of Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS). In 2023, HAFS became the first major coupled Unified Forecast System (UFS) based regional model transitioned to operations. HAFS is a multi-scale, multiple moving nested modeling system with a sophisticated data-assimilation package and ocean-wave coupling.
Through the HFIP, NOAA continues to improve the accuracy of hurricane forecasts with applied research that exploits state-of-the-art computer models, high-performance computing (HPC), and cloud environments. This advancement builds confidence in the critical forecasting paradigm that informs community preparedness strategies, aimed to minimize property damages and loss of life.
Collaborators
