10-day summary of MN 2024050712 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the
10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or
averages (local midnight-to-midnight
The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: ff1a8e40d5864dfca200ce0b3ff5e679
Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than
264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]
Description of the Rows:
Row 1:
Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2:
Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3:
Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4:
Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5:
Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6:
Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily
snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7:
Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8:
Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is
passed to the SAC-HT soil model
Row 9:
Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for
Runoff Risk
Row 10:
Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0
Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile
between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against
monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined
category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th
Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th
Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)
Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile <
95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P
--> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)
Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO
Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO
Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO
percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)
Row 11:
v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day
Row 12:
v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for
normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining
forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated
The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected
Attachments:
