EMC's Model Evaluation Group

 The Model Evaluation Group (MEG) community is established to interact with the user community on issues related to the forecast systems of NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC).    It is used to discuss overall model performance and provide feedback on operational and parallel versions of the models which comprise the production suite.

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RE: Re: GFS FV3 #2 in August
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Geoffrey Manikin, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: Re: GFS FV3 #2 in August

Youngling Posts: 11 Join Date: 8/25/15

    Warren-

         Thanks for your post.     I'm attaching an image from the MEG tropical recap presentation given a few weeks ago.    The top panel is track error, and the bottom panel is intensity bias - both for the Atlantic basin covering the past 3 hurricane seasons.    The red is the ops GFS, the blue is the original FV3GFS configuration, and the green is the final configuration.   (A science change was made in early August to address the significant low intensity bias in tropical cyclones).  

          It's clear that both the initial and final FV3GFS improve the track, relative to the ops GFS.     The original FV3GFS configuration clearly had a significant weak intensity bias.    It's mitigated in the final configuration (change shown by the purple arrow), but beyond day 2, the FV3GFS still has a low intensity bias relative to the GFS.    So your hunch that the FV3GFS is underdoing the intensity of Florence may be very much on the right track.     That said, even though the composite stats don't reflect it, the GFS is prone to going crazy with the central pressure in the strongest storms (i.e. the sub 900 pressures in 2017 Irma forecasts and perhaps in some Florence runs).

                                     -Geoff



On Mon, Sep 10, 2018 at 9:44 PM, Warren Blier <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Jeff,

Great to see!  Interesting to note dramatic difference between GFS and FV3 re both intensity and path of Florence as it approaches the Carolinas (see attached figs).  We'll see.  I'm attaching the corresponding ECMWF output for comparison.  Personal hunch is that FV3 is way-underdoing the intensity but may be better (than the GFS) on the longer-term path.

Warren

--------------------------
Warren Blier, Ph.D.
Science and Operations Officer
National Weather Service
San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey Forecast Office
Monterey, CA 93943-5505
831-656-1710 x224 or 831-656-1724


On Mon, Sep 10, 2018 at 4:49 PM, Jeffrey Craven - NOAA Federal <0000008037b22bcd-dmarc-request@listserv.albany.edu> wrote:
I know we have more important things to worry about with Florence.

But I don't want this to get lost....

It is early, but August 2018 500mb Height AC scores would put GFS FV3 as second best.  

Definitely moving in the right direction!  Hopefully this trend will continue.  

JPC

image.png

Jeff Craven
Chief, Statistical Modeling Branch
National Weather Service, W/STI-12
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)
Room 10410, SSMC2
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(301) 427-9475 office
(816) 506-9783 cell/text
@jpcstorm

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--
Warren Blier EMC Model Evaluation Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/emc-model-evaluation-group/home/-/message_boards/view_message/4821411VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

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9/11/18