EMC's Model Evaluation Group

 The Model Evaluation Group (MEG) community is established to interact with the user community on issues related to the forecast systems of NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC).    It is used to discuss overall model performance and provide feedback on operational and parallel versions of the models which comprise the production suite.

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Re: GFS FV3 #2 in August
WB
Warren Blier, modified 6 Years ago.

Re: GFS FV3 #2 in August

Youngling Posts: 2 Join Date: 9/24/12
Jeff,

Great to see!  Interesting to note dramatic difference between GFS and FV3 re both intensity and path of Florence as it approaches the Carolinas (see attached figs).  We'll see.  I'm attaching the corresponding ECMWF output for comparison.  Personal hunch is that FV3 is way-underdoing the intensity but may be better (than the GFS) on the longer-term path.

Warren

--------------------------
Warren Blier, Ph.D.
Science and Operations Officer
National Weather Service
San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey Forecast Office
21 Grace Hopper Ave, Stop 5
Monterey, CA 93943-5505
831-656-1710 x224 or 831-656-1724


On Mon, Sep 10, 2018 at 4:49 PM, Jeffrey Craven - NOAA Federal <0000008037b22bcd-dmarc-request@listserv.albany.edu> wrote:
I know we have more important things to worry about with Florence.

But I don't want this to get lost....

It is early, but August 2018 500mb Height AC scores would put GFS FV3 as second best.  

Definitely moving in the right direction!  Hopefully this trend will continue.  

JPC

image.png

Jeff Craven
Chief, Statistical Modeling Branch
National Weather Service, W/STI-12
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)
Room 10410, SSMC2
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(301) 427-9475 office
(816) 506-9783 cell/text
@jpcstorm

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Modified Date
9/11/18