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Jack Settelmaier, modified 6 Years ago.

Beryl?

Youngling Posts: 18 Join Date: 11/2/12 Recent Posts

Fresh off/after Geoff and Tracey's summary of the GFS and FV3 performance for Alberto on today's MEG call, Greg Patrick brought to my attention, DURING the MEG call, that the GFS is at it again, trying to show a Beryl in the eastern Gulf about 7 days out, and has shown something for about 6 runs in a row--12Z output was just coming in, but is not included in visuals below.  Adding it, if desired, is left as "homework."  Greg says it is weaker for same valid time 06UTC, Jun 15  

Interesting, the FV3, for the available comparative model runs (only run 2x/day vs GFS 4x/day) IS NOT SO BULLISH.   This could be good promotional material for the FV3, assuming nothing materializes. 

Using Pivotal, I was able to make comparative model trend loops of each here, pasted below. 

Most other Global models (00UTC run output) are not so bullish either, though the "usual excited suspects" NAVGEM and CMC, show at least something, though MUCH further south, as shown in this now elder VLab model performance blog post that auto-updates with imagery (some now old due to models not being run, and Fiorino retiring) from ESRL.

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/forecast-performance-blog/blogs/-/blogs/day-7-tropics-wat-1

 

GFS

 

FV3

gfs fv3 beryl

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JS
Jack Settelmaier, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: Beryl?

Youngling Posts: 18 Join Date: 11/2/12 Recent Posts

It was brought to my attention, by a Florida-based scientist, that if one changes the valid time to be 36 hours earlier, 00Z Jun 14, and creates the same GFS vs FV3 comparison forecast trend loop, one can see that indeed the FV3 does show SOMEthing, albeit weaker, in the eastern Gulf at that earlier forecast hour.  So, as usual, one can't yet declare any model the "winner" yet, until it all plays out over the next week. 

GFS (valid 00Z, Jun 14)

FV3 (valid 00Z, Jun 14)

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GM
Geoffrey Manikin, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: Beryl?

Youngling Posts: 11 Join Date: 8/25/15 Recent Posts

Thanks, Jack.    The GFS runs today continue to show a fairly significant system in the northern Gulf by day 8.    The FV3 runs all have a system, but it's much, much weaker.    The Canadian has been showing solutions in between the GFS and FV3, while the ECMWF keeps asking "what storm?"    There is modest support in the GEFS and limited support in the GEPS.

 

Will be very interesting to watch the solutions over the next several days.

 

JS
Jack Settelmaier, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: Beryl?

Youngling Posts: 18 Join Date: 11/2/12 Recent Posts
I see the 12Z ECM has a few dots plotted here in this visual, and, if anything, is over the inland spine of central America.

The UKMET seems to have the least of anything, of the updated models through Day 7 shown here:

Just as a test, and to cross-pollinate VLab Forum posts, here are two images (PoP12 and QPF24) depicting the NBM v3.0 161-hr forecasts valid late next week, seeming to show some evidence of a wet eastern Gulf.





Have a good weekend all

On Fri, Jun 8, 2018 at 3:44 PM, Geoffrey Manikin <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

Thanks, Jack.    The GFS runs today continue to show a fairly significant system in the northern Gulf by day 8.    The FV3 runs all have a system, but it's much, much weaker.    The Canadian has been showing solutions in between the GFS and FV3, while the ECMWF keeps asking "what storm?"    There is modest support in the GEFS and limited support in the GEPS.

 

Will be very interesting to watch the solutions over the next several days.

 


--
Geoffrey Manikin EMC Model Evaluation Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/emc-model-evaluation-group/home/-/message_boards/view_message/4221990VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov



--
Jack Settelmaier
Digital Techniques Meteorologist
NOAA/NWS, Southern Region HQ
Fort Worth, TX 
Work: 682 703 3685

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JS
Jack Settelmaier, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: Beryl?

Youngling Posts: 18 Join Date: 11/2/12 Recent Posts

Perhaps it's not necessary to make a post, but at 00Z this evening, will be the valid time for these prior forecasts suggesting something organized in the Gulf.