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SSTs in FV3GFS

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GM
Geoffrey Manikin, modified 6 Years ago.

SSTs in FV3GFS

Youngling Posts: 11 Join Date: 8/25/15 Recent Posts

     There is a major problem with warm SSTs in the northern Gulf in the FV3GFS parallel;  EMC discovered the issue during this past weekend, and it has been receiving a lot of attention in recent days on social media.   In fact, the problems are also seen in other coastal waters of the Gulf, the Chesapeake Bay, the Long Island Sound, Albemarle Sound, Lake Erie, and other near-shore areas around the world.      Please see the attached images showing two regional GFS/FV3GFS SST comparisons.   We believe that this problem has been in the model for a while,  with a continuous accumulation/exacerbation of the issue over time.

 

      Solving this issue is EMC's top priority, and we are close to having a fix.  For those who participate in EMC's weekly Model Evaluation Group webinars, we will provide an update at Thursday's (5/24)  meeting.     We'll also post an update in this forum.

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JS
Jack Settelmaier, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: SSTs in FV3GFS

Youngling Posts: 18 Join Date: 11/2/12 Recent Posts

Thanks again for the notice, and I'm sure you'll provide all kinds of details on the MEG call today, but as I was poking around looking at Alberto-related fields, I made a Total Precip Accum loop from both the GFS and FV3 for the time period ending 12Z Tues, May 29th, just to see what kinds of totals each was putting out.

 

While they appear to be in relatively good agreement, once again the FV3 appears to be running a bit "hot" in its amounts (deeper browns; getting up toward 15" total; which is not unheard of, of course), but you can ALSO see reflection near Lake Charles, AL of the HOT SSTs influencing the precip totals there, since several of the areas match nearly exactly the area your SST graphics highlight.

fv3 gfs

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GM
Geoffrey Manikin, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: SSTs in FV3GFS

Youngling Posts: 11 Join Date: 8/25/15 Recent Posts

Thanks, Jack, for those nice examples.   I'm pleased to report that EMC has corrected the SST problem as of the 18z cycle today (May 25).   The attached comparisons of skin temp (SST over water) between the GFS and FV3GFS at 12 and 18z demonstrate that the large differences are gone in the 18z cycle.

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