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Higher than expected Winds/Wind Gusts over the Pacific Ocean off Tillamook, Oregon

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Colby Neuman, modified 9 Months ago.

Higher than expected Winds/Wind Gusts over the Pacific Ocean off Tillamook, Oregon

Youngling Posts: 1 Join Date: 1/4/14 Recent Posts

Hi all,

 

We have an area within 10-20 miles of the coast off of Tillamook, Oregon that appear to show higher wind speeds/wind gusts than surrounding waters to the north and south of the region somewhat regularly in the URMA analysis.  We admittedly have no buoy data to determine if it's real, but it worries me that we are not seeing this pattern displayed in high resolution model guidance during our storm events.  It seems to be displayed enough by the URMA that we see it show up in the NBM, and it can leave forecasters here wondering if they should be issuing Gale Warnings, Storm Warnings, etc. when raw model guidance does not support those warnings being disseminated.  Most, if not all, sites in the vicinity of the coast around Tillamook appear to be blacklisted so I'm not sure what's going on?  

 

You can view images and timestamps at the following link...

 

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1jrq_k2Qm1U0Q5WI0QpWDibBqRMGueCDxRv1lq6Rs2qs/edit#slide=id.p

 

Colby

NWS Portland

 

 

 

 

 

MM
Matthew Morris, modified 9 Months ago.

RE: Higher than expected Winds/Wind Gusts over the Pacific Ocean off Tillamook, Oregon

Youngling Posts: 156 Join Date: 12/6/17 Recent Posts
Hi Colby,

Please see the attached slide deck, which shows the URMA first guess, analysis, observations, and analysis increments for several of the more recent cases.  In each of these cases, the region of strong winds off the coast near Tillamook, OR is present in the background fields (i.e., HRRR 1 h forecasts).  The analysis values are somewhat higher, as can be seen by the positive analysis increment centered near the coastline.  This increment appears to be coming from a WxFlow station (XMAN).
We could add this station to the SDM reject list, but these flags would only apply to the wind speed observations.  In order to flag the gust obs, we would need to add the station to the permanent reject list in the RTMA/URMA package.  We have an opportunity to do this, but it would entail flagging the wind speed observations in addition to gust, and it would be a permanent change until we transition to 3D-RTMA/URMA.  Please let us know if you would like to pursue either option.

As a reminder, the vast majority of CWOP and AWS stations were removed from the list of trusted stations for wind speed and gust in a minor upgrade (implemented in Feb. 2023).

As we continue development of 3D-RTMA/URMA, it's important to examine the performance of 3D-RTMA, which will use background fields from RRFS, against that of 2D-RTMA.  Unfortunately, I do not have any data for comparison for the cases in your slide deck, but we will monitor the output going forward.

Thanks,
Matt

On Mon, Jul 24, 2023 at 8:13 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

Hi all,

 

We have an area within 10-20 miles of the coast off of Tillamook, Oregon that appear to show higher wind speeds/wind gusts than surrounding waters to the north and south of the region somewhat regularly in the URMA analysis.  We admittedly have no buoy data to determine if it's real, but it worries me that we are not seeing this pattern displayed in high resolution model guidance during our storm events.  It seems to be displayed enough by the URMA that we see it show up in the NBM, and it can leave forecasters here wondering if they should be issuing Gale Warnings, Storm Warnings, etc. when raw model guidance does not support those warnings being disseminated.  Most, if not all, sites in the vicinity of the coast around Tillamook appear to be blacklisted so I'm not sure what's going on?  

 

You can view images and timestamps at the following link...

 

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1jrq_k2Qm1U0Q5WI0QpWDibBqRMGueCDxRv1lq6Rs2qs/edit#slide=id.p

 

Colby

NWS Portland

 

 

 

 

 


--
Colby Neuman RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/30980401VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Matthew Morris
SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
5830 University Research Ct., Rm. 2038
College Park, MD 20740
301-683-3758

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  • 2011 RTMA Paper (Weather and Forecasting)

    The most recent peer-reviewed paper on the RTMA. Published in Weather and Forecasting in 2011.
    7 Visits

  • Public RTMA/URMA Viewer

    Another viewer of the current RTMA/URMA, with an archive going back 24 hours. This version is open to the public, but does not contain information about the (many) restricted obs used.
    52 Visits

  • RAP downscaling conference preprint (23rd IIPS)

    This link is to a presentation from the (then) RUC group on how the downscaling process works. Although we now use the RAP, HRRR, and NAM, the logic of the downscaling code is mostly unchanged from this point.
    2 Visits