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Problem with localized high winds.

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NH
Nick Hampshire, modified 2 Years ago.

Problem with localized high winds.

Youngling Posts: 6 Join Date: 7/25/14 Recent Posts

We had a problem pop up recently with a very localized area of high winds north of Fredericksburg, Texas in Gillespie County.  The attached picture will show the NBM90 forecast for tonight (Shows up in NBM too) with a localized 33+ kt wind grid. The middle image shows URMA for last Friday night, and the bottom shows no bad obs are getting into URMA.  Anyone have any idea what could be occurring. We had a bad forecast go out the other day that read this on the P&C:

 

Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 54. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

Attachments:

Attachment

Jeffrey Craven, modified 2 Years ago.

RE: Problem with localized high winds.

Youngling Posts: 90 Join Date: 9/24/12 Recent Posts
Been chatting with Nick offline and we think we found something.  

There tends to be a maximum wind in this area in the HRRR, which would translate to both URMA and NBM.

Here is 24 hour example from 12z HRRR today valid at 12z tomorrow morning.   About 30 knot wind max there. 

image.png

FV3 also has a 30 knot wind max in that area as well. 

image.png

As does the WRF ARW Member2.   Seems to be a "mountain" wave feature with significant pressure perturbation.  

image.png

JPC

Jeff Craven
Chief, Statistical Modeling Division (SMD)
Vice Lead, Innovation, Science & Technology (Evolve PMO)
National Weather Service, W/STI-12
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)
Room 10410, SSMC2
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(816) 506-9783 cell/text
(301) 427-9475 office
@jpcstorm


On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 10:22 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

We had a problem pop up recently with a very localized area of high winds north of Fredericksburg, Texas in Gillespie County.  The attached picture will show the NBM90 forecast for tonight (Shows up in NBM too) with a localized 33+ kt wind grid. The middle image shows URMA for last Friday night, and the bottom shows no bad obs are getting into URMA.  Anyone have any idea what could be occurring. We had a bad forecast go out the other day that read this on the P&C:

 

Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 54. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.


--
Nick Hampshire RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/20471832VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

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JS
Jack Settelmaier, modified 2 Years ago.

RE: Problem with localized high winds.

Youngling Posts: 23 Join Date: 11/2/12 Recent Posts
FWIW, given it's blowing and gusting outside my window this afternoon here in North TX, I went ahead and took a look at today's HRRR 12UTC forecast for valid times a) at 12UTC tomorrow, but also b) at 20UTC today, so I could match with the latest RTMA valid at 20UTC today. Made a little loop of the 3 images, each locked to colorize and show 8.94 m/s (20mph) or greater only. Circled the Fburg area of interest, and you can see the same striations as in above. The HRRR even has a high forecast (~16 m/s) for 20UTC.



On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 10:12 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Been chatting with Nick offline and we think we found something.  

There tends to be a maximum wind in this area in the HRRR, which would translate to both URMA and NBM.

Here is 24 hour example from 12z HRRR today valid at 12z tomorrow morning.   About 30 knot wind max there. 

image.png

FV3 also has a 30 knot wind max in that area as well. 

image.png

As does the WRF ARW Member2.   Seems to be a "mountain" wave feature with significant pressure perturbation.  

image.png

JPC

Jeff Craven
Chief, Statistical Modeling Division (SMD)
Vice Lead, Innovation, Science & Technology (Evolve PMO)
National Weather Service, W/STI-12
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)
Room 10410, SSMC2
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(816) 506-9783 cell/text
(301) 427-9475 office
@jpcstorm


On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 10:22 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

We had a problem pop up recently with a very localized area of high winds north of Fredericksburg, Texas in Gillespie County.  The attached picture will show the NBM90 forecast for tonight (Shows up in NBM too) with a localized 33+ kt wind grid. The middle image shows URMA for last Friday night, and the bottom shows no bad obs are getting into URMA.  Anyone have any idea what could be occurring. We had a bad forecast go out the other day that read this on the P&C:

 

Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 54. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.


--
Nick Hampshire RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/20471832VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

--
Jeffrey Craven RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20474391VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Jack Settelmaier
Digital Techniques Meteorologist
NOAA/NWS, Southern Region HQ
Fort Worth, TX 
Work Desk: 682 703 3685
Virtual Office (most core work hours): https://meet.google.com/ujm-ajkv-rhk

Attachments:

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MM
Matthew Morris, modified 2 Years ago.

RE: Problem with localized high winds.

Youngling Posts: 158 Join Date: 12/6/17 Recent Posts
Hi Nick, Jeff, and Jack,

Please see the attached slide deck for the wind speed background, analysis, and observation figures from the 12Z URMA cycle on February 16th.
While the background already shows an area of higher winds in the vicinity of Fredericksburg, TX, our study of this case also revealed a positive analysis increment that cannot be explained by the available observations. This is a sign of analysis overshooting and results from trying to fit the observations too closely. In the upcoming 3D-RTMA system, we will use shorter correlation lengths and, thus, improve on the issue of overshooting.

Please let us know if you have any other questions.

-Matt

On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 4:48 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
FWIW, given it's blowing and gusting outside my window this afternoon here in North TX, I went ahead and took a look at today's HRRR 12UTC forecast for valid times a) at 12UTC tomorrow, but also b) at 20UTC today, so I could match with the latest RTMA valid at 20UTC today. Made a little loop of the 3 images, each locked to colorize and show 8.94 m/s (20mph) or greater only. Circled the Fburg area of interest, and you can see the same striations as in above. The HRRR even has a high forecast (~16 m/s) for 20UTC.



On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 10:12 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Been chatting with Nick offline and we think we found something.  

There tends to be a maximum wind in this area in the HRRR, which would translate to both URMA and NBM.

Here is 24 hour example from 12z HRRR today valid at 12z tomorrow morning.   About 30 knot wind max there. 

image.png

FV3 also has a 30 knot wind max in that area as well. 

image.png

As does the WRF ARW Member2.   Seems to be a "mountain" wave feature with significant pressure perturbation.  

image.png

JPC

Jeff Craven
Chief, Statistical Modeling Division (SMD)
Vice Lead, Innovation, Science & Technology (Evolve PMO)
National Weather Service, W/STI-12
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)
Room 10410, SSMC2
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(816) 506-9783 cell/text
(301) 427-9475 office
@jpcstorm


On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 10:22 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

We had a problem pop up recently with a very localized area of high winds north of Fredericksburg, Texas in Gillespie County.  The attached picture will show the NBM90 forecast for tonight (Shows up in NBM too) with a localized 33+ kt wind grid. The middle image shows URMA for last Friday night, and the bottom shows no bad obs are getting into URMA.  Anyone have any idea what could be occurring. We had a bad forecast go out the other day that read this on the P&C:

 

Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 54. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.


--
Nick Hampshire RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/20471832VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

--
Jeffrey Craven RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20474391VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Jack Settelmaier
Digital Techniques Meteorologist
NOAA/NWS, Southern Region HQ
Fort Worth, TX 
Work Desk: 682 703 3685
Virtual Office (most core work hours): https://meet.google.com/ujm-ajkv-rhk

--
Jack Settelmaier RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20478427VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

Attachments:

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Attachment

NH
Nick Hampshire, modified 2 Years ago.

RE: Problem with localized high winds.

Youngling Posts: 6 Join Date: 7/25/14 Recent Posts
Cool stuff! Do you think this is caused by the HRRR being too high as URMA's first guess?

Nick Hampshire
Senior Forecaster
National Weather Service
WFO Austin/San Antonio


On Fri, Feb 18, 2022 at 3:35 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Hi Nick, Jeff, and Jack,

Please see the attached slide deck for the wind speed background, analysis, and observation figures from the 12Z URMA cycle on February 16th.
While the background already shows an area of higher winds in the vicinity of Fredericksburg, TX, our study of this case also revealed a positive analysis increment that cannot be explained by the available observations. This is a sign of analysis overshooting and results from trying to fit the observations too closely. In the upcoming 3D-RTMA system, we will use shorter correlation lengths and, thus, improve on the issue of overshooting.

Please let us know if you have any other questions.

-Matt

On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 4:48 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
FWIW, given it's blowing and gusting outside my window this afternoon here in North TX, I went ahead and took a look at today's HRRR 12UTC forecast for valid times a) at 12UTC tomorrow, but also b) at 20UTC today, so I could match with the latest RTMA valid at 20UTC today. Made a little loop of the 3 images, each locked to colorize and show 8.94 m/s (20mph) or greater only. Circled the Fburg area of interest, and you can see the same striations as in above. The HRRR even has a high forecast (~16 m/s) for 20UTC.



On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 10:12 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Been chatting with Nick offline and we think we found something.  

There tends to be a maximum wind in this area in the HRRR, which would translate to both URMA and NBM.

Here is 24 hour example from 12z HRRR today valid at 12z tomorrow morning.   About 30 knot wind max there. 

image.png

FV3 also has a 30 knot wind max in that area as well. 

image.png

As does the WRF ARW Member2.   Seems to be a "mountain" wave feature with significant pressure perturbation.  

image.png

JPC

Jeff Craven
Chief, Statistical Modeling Division (SMD)
Vice Lead, Innovation, Science & Technology (Evolve PMO)
National Weather Service, W/STI-12
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)
Room 10410, SSMC2
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(816) 506-9783 cell/text
(301) 427-9475 office
@jpcstorm


On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 10:22 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

We had a problem pop up recently with a very localized area of high winds north of Fredericksburg, Texas in Gillespie County.  The attached picture will show the NBM90 forecast for tonight (Shows up in NBM too) with a localized 33+ kt wind grid. The middle image shows URMA for last Friday night, and the bottom shows no bad obs are getting into URMA.  Anyone have any idea what could be occurring. We had a bad forecast go out the other day that read this on the P&C:

 

Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 54. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.


--
Nick Hampshire RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/20471832VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

--
Jeffrey Craven RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20474391VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Jack Settelmaier
Digital Techniques Meteorologist
NOAA/NWS, Southern Region HQ
Fort Worth, TX 
Work Desk: 682 703 3685
Virtual Office (most core work hours): https://meet.google.com/ujm-ajkv-rhk

--
Jack Settelmaier RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20478427VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

--
Matthew Morris RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20601385VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

Attachments:

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JS
Jack Settelmaier, modified 2 Years ago.

RE: Problem with localized high winds.

Youngling Posts: 23 Join Date: 11/2/12 Recent Posts
Thanks Matt.  Nice to learn the URMA GES is the background, as I was looking at some of the raw data as well.  

On Fri, Feb 18, 2022 at 3:39 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Cool stuff! Do you think this is caused by the HRRR being too high as URMA's first guess?

Nick Hampshire
Senior Forecaster
National Weather Service
WFO Austin/San Antonio


On Fri, Feb 18, 2022 at 3:35 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Hi Nick, Jeff, and Jack,

Please see the attached slide deck for the wind speed background, analysis, and observation figures from the 12Z URMA cycle on February 16th.
While the background already shows an area of higher winds in the vicinity of Fredericksburg, TX, our study of this case also revealed a positive analysis increment that cannot be explained by the available observations. This is a sign of analysis overshooting and results from trying to fit the observations too closely. In the upcoming 3D-RTMA system, we will use shorter correlation lengths and, thus, improve on the issue of overshooting.

Please let us know if you have any other questions.

-Matt

On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 4:48 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
FWIW, given it's blowing and gusting outside my window this afternoon here in North TX, I went ahead and took a look at today's HRRR 12UTC forecast for valid times a) at 12UTC tomorrow, but also b) at 20UTC today, so I could match with the latest RTMA valid at 20UTC today. Made a little loop of the 3 images, each locked to colorize and show 8.94 m/s (20mph) or greater only. Circled the Fburg area of interest, and you can see the same striations as in above. The HRRR even has a high forecast (~16 m/s) for 20UTC.



On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 10:12 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Been chatting with Nick offline and we think we found something.  

There tends to be a maximum wind in this area in the HRRR, which would translate to both URMA and NBM.

Here is 24 hour example from 12z HRRR today valid at 12z tomorrow morning.   About 30 knot wind max there. 

image.png

FV3 also has a 30 knot wind max in that area as well. 

image.png

As does the WRF ARW Member2.   Seems to be a "mountain" wave feature with significant pressure perturbation.  

image.png

JPC

Jeff Craven
Chief, Statistical Modeling Division (SMD)
Vice Lead, Innovation, Science & Technology (Evolve PMO)
National Weather Service, W/STI-12
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)
Room 10410, SSMC2
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(816) 506-9783 cell/text
(301) 427-9475 office
@jpcstorm


On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 10:22 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

We had a problem pop up recently with a very localized area of high winds north of Fredericksburg, Texas in Gillespie County.  The attached picture will show the NBM90 forecast for tonight (Shows up in NBM too) with a localized 33+ kt wind grid. The middle image shows URMA for last Friday night, and the bottom shows no bad obs are getting into URMA.  Anyone have any idea what could be occurring. We had a bad forecast go out the other day that read this on the P&C:

 

Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 54. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.


--
Nick Hampshire RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/20471832VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

--
Jeffrey Craven RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20474391VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Jack Settelmaier
Digital Techniques Meteorologist
NOAA/NWS, Southern Region HQ
Fort Worth, TX 
Work Desk: 682 703 3685
Virtual Office (most core work hours): https://meet.google.com/ujm-ajkv-rhk

--
Jack Settelmaier RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20478427VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

--
Matthew Morris RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20601385VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

--
Nick Hampshire RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20601510VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Jack Settelmaier
Digital Techniques Meteorologist
NOAA/NWS, Southern Region HQ
Fort Worth, TX 
Work Desk: 682 703 3685
Virtual Office (most core work hours): https://meet.google.com/ujm-ajkv-rhk

Attachments:

Attachment

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Attachment

Attachment

MM
Matthew Morris, modified 2 Years ago.

RE: Problem with localized high winds.

Youngling Posts: 158 Join Date: 12/6/17 Recent Posts
Hi Nick,

Yes, the URMA background is derived from the 1-h HRRR forecast, so the patch of stronger winds in the HRRR forecast is carried through to the analysis.  However, in this case, URMA also increased the winds somewhat due to the overshooting issue.

-Matt

On Fri, Feb 18, 2022 at 4:39 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Cool stuff! Do you think this is caused by the HRRR being too high as URMA's first guess?

Nick Hampshire
Senior Forecaster
National Weather Service
WFO Austin/San Antonio


On Fri, Feb 18, 2022 at 3:35 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Hi Nick, Jeff, and Jack,

Please see the attached slide deck for the wind speed background, analysis, and observation figures from the 12Z URMA cycle on February 16th.
While the background already shows an area of higher winds in the vicinity of Fredericksburg, TX, our study of this case also revealed a positive analysis increment that cannot be explained by the available observations. This is a sign of analysis overshooting and results from trying to fit the observations too closely. In the upcoming 3D-RTMA system, we will use shorter correlation lengths and, thus, improve on the issue of overshooting.

Please let us know if you have any other questions.

-Matt

On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 4:48 PM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
FWIW, given it's blowing and gusting outside my window this afternoon here in North TX, I went ahead and took a look at today's HRRR 12UTC forecast for valid times a) at 12UTC tomorrow, but also b) at 20UTC today, so I could match with the latest RTMA valid at 20UTC today. Made a little loop of the 3 images, each locked to colorize and show 8.94 m/s (20mph) or greater only. Circled the Fburg area of interest, and you can see the same striations as in above. The HRRR even has a high forecast (~16 m/s) for 20UTC.



On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 10:12 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Been chatting with Nick offline and we think we found something.  

There tends to be a maximum wind in this area in the HRRR, which would translate to both URMA and NBM.

Here is 24 hour example from 12z HRRR today valid at 12z tomorrow morning.   About 30 knot wind max there. 

image.png

FV3 also has a 30 knot wind max in that area as well. 

image.png

As does the WRF ARW Member2.   Seems to be a "mountain" wave feature with significant pressure perturbation.  

image.png

JPC

Jeff Craven
Chief, Statistical Modeling Division (SMD)
Vice Lead, Innovation, Science & Technology (Evolve PMO)
National Weather Service, W/STI-12
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)
Room 10410, SSMC2
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(816) 506-9783 cell/text
(301) 427-9475 office
@jpcstorm


On Tue, Feb 15, 2022 at 10:22 AM VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

We had a problem pop up recently with a very localized area of high winds north of Fredericksburg, Texas in Gillespie County.  The attached picture will show the NBM90 forecast for tonight (Shows up in NBM too) with a localized 33+ kt wind grid. The middle image shows URMA for last Friday night, and the bottom shows no bad obs are getting into URMA.  Anyone have any idea what could be occurring. We had a bad forecast go out the other day that read this on the P&C:

 

Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 54. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.


--
Nick Hampshire RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/20471832VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

--
Jeffrey Craven RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20474391VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Jack Settelmaier
Digital Techniques Meteorologist
NOAA/NWS, Southern Region HQ
Fort Worth, TX 
Work Desk: 682 703 3685
Virtual Office (most core work hours): https://meet.google.com/ujm-ajkv-rhk

--
Jack Settelmaier RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20478427VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

--
Matthew Morris RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20601385VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

--
Nick Hampshire RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/20601510VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

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