VLab Forum Members,
This month's VLab Forum will occur on June 15th at 2 PM (Eastern Time) and feature a presentation by John Crockett titled "Evaluation of NCAR’s AutoNowCaster for Operational Application within the National Weather Service." For more information on the talk's content, please see the details provided below. We hope you can attend.
If you want to participate in the forum remotely, please register for the webinar. Alternately, you can join us in SSMC-2, Room 10246.
Talk Abstract:
Grounded in rules derived from expert knowledge and understanding of storm initiation and evolution, AutoNowCaster assimilates WSR-88D data, surface observation data, GOES data, NWS radiosonde data, and NWP model output in order to analyze characteristic features of the atmosphere. Using a fuzzy logic approach, the results of the analyses are used to generate interest fields which are first advected forward 60 minutes in time and then converted into dimensionless likelihood fields by using relationship functions which, like the basic rules, were developed by experts who have insight into the relevant physical processes. These likelihood fields have a dynamic range from -1 to 1, where increasing positive values correspond to an increasing likelihood of storm initiation and/or sustainment, and vice-versa. The likelihood fields are then weighted. The weighted likelihood fields are summed to produce a Convective Likelihood field which is then filtered and smoothed. This talk presents the results of verifying ANC’s 60-minute nowcasts of CL.
Talk Focus and R2O State:
- Talk focuses mainly on the status of an existing R2O project
- Research Transition (laboratory work with clear R2O potential)
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