NCEP SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST (SREF)

NCEP SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST (SREF)

Above: From the NCEP SPC SREF Plume Page: Plume for Total QPF at Washington, DC (DCA) from the 1500 UTC 9 September 2022 SREF forecast for all NMMB (green/blue/purple traces) and ARW (yellow/red/orange traces) members.

 

NCEP's Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system is a dual-core multi-physics regional ensemble over North America. It consists of 26 members, 13 using the Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model and 13 members using the NEMS Non-Hydrostatic Multiscale Model on B-grid (NEMS-NMMB). SREF is run to 87-h at 16 km horizontal resolution with 40 vertical layers at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. To create ensemble diversity a mix of different physics parameterizations, lateral boundary conditions (LBC) from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and initial conditions are used. Table 1 shows the physics configuration used for the 13 NEMS-NMMB members, and Table 2 shows the configurations used for the WRF-ARW members.

The October 2015 SREF implementation was its last upgrade, as future regional ensemble development at NCEP will focus on building a high-resolution convective-allowing ensemble including the FV3 dynamic core. 

Table 1 : Physics, initial conditions, and lateral boundary conditions used in the 13 NEMS-NMMB SREF members; click here for definition of acronyms.

 
Table 2: Physics, initial conditions, and lateral boundary conditions used in the 13 WRF-ARW SREF members; click here for definition of acronyms.

SREF-Related Web Pages

Information about NCEP SREF

Other Time-lagged Ensemble Products

 

PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER

For more info about the NCEP SREF, please contact: Jun Du
For more info about the NARRE-TL, please contact: Binbin Zhou
For more info on the HREF, please contact Matthew Pyle

 

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