Home - EMC
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WELCOME TO THE NOAA/NWS ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER
NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center is responsible for the development and implementation of more than 20 numerical prediction systems. EMC transitions these systems into operations for use across the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the rest of the National Weather Service, with the goal of expanding that reach to the broader meteorology community. Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of earth's systems to predict the weather based on current conditions.
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FORECASTING SYSTEM
Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary for modern numerical weather prediction requires powerful supercomputers. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts.
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OUR MISSION
Maintain, enhance and transition-to-operations numerical forecast systems for weather, ocean, climate, land surface and hydrology, hurricanes, and air quality for the Nation and the global community and for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.
ANNOUNCEMENTS & EVENTS

RECENT PUBLICATIONS
- Li Wei et al., 2024: Updates and evaluation of NOAA’s online-coupled air quality model version 7 (AQMv7) within the Unified Forecast System. Published in EGU Geoscientific Model Development Discussions
- Fujisaki-Manome Ayumi et al., 2024: Advanced Sea Ice Modeling for Short-Term Forecasting for Alaska’s Coasts. Published in Weather and Forecasting
- Munsi A. et al., 2024: Helicity: A Possible Indicator of Negative Feedback Initiation of Tropical Cyclone–Ocean Interaction. Published in AGU Earth and Space Science
- Weiguo Wang et al., 2024: Physics schemes in the first version of NCEP operational hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFS). Published in Frontiers in Earth Science
- Alves Jose-Henrique et al., 2024: Development of a Wave Model Component in the First Coupled Global Ensemble Forecast System at NOAA. Published in Weather and Forecasting
- More Publications

LATEST NEWS/EVENTS
- Two Prestigious Items of Recognition for EMC MDAB Chief Dr. Vijay Tallapragada
- Public Release of UFS Short Range Weather Application v2.0.
- JNWPU/NMC/NCEP Model History: 1955-Present
- MDAB-Physics Lead Dr. Fanglin Yang profiled in the "Faces of the National Weather Service" web site
- NOAA News Release on Global Forecast System Version 16 Implementation