Re: GFS FV3 #2 in August

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Warren Blier, modified 6 Years ago.

Re: GFS FV3 #2 in August

Youngling Posts: 2 Join Date: 9/24/12 Recent Posts

Jeff,

Great to see! Interesting to note dramatic difference between GFS and FV3 re both intensity and path of Florence as it approaches the Carolinas (see attached figs). We'll see. I'm attaching the corresponding ECMWF output for comparison. Personal hunch is that FV3 is way-underdoing the intensity but may be better (than the GFS) on the longer-term path.

Warren

--------------------------

Warren Blier, Ph.D.

Science and Operations Officer

National Weather Service

San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey Forecast Office

21 Grace Hopper Ave, Stop 5

Monterey, CA 93943-5505

831-656-1710 x224 or 831-656-1724

On Mon, Sep 10, 2018 at 4:49 PM, Jeffrey Craven - NOAA Federal <0000008037b22bcd-dmarc-request@listserv.albany.edu> wrote:

I know we have more important things to worry about with Florence.

But I don't want this to get lost....

It is early, but August 2018 500mb Height AC scores would put GFS FV3 as second best.

Definitely moving in the right direction! Hopefully this trend will continue.

JPC

Jeff Craven

Chief, Statistical Modeling Branch

National Weather Service, W/STI-12

Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)

Room 10410, SSMC2

Silver Spring, MD 20910

(301) 427-9475 office

(816) 506-9783 cell/text

@jpcstorm

https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_home

To unsubscribe from the MAP list, click the following link and send the email generated:
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Geoffrey Manikin, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: Re: GFS FV3 #2 in August

Youngling Posts: 11 Join Date: 8/25/15 Recent Posts

Warren-

Thanks for your post. I'm attaching an image from the MEG tropical recap presentation given a few weeks ago. The top panel is track error, and the bottom panel is intensity bias - both for the Atlantic basin covering the past 3 hurricane seasons. The red is the ops GFS, the blue is the original FV3GFS configuration, and the green is the final configuration. (A science change was made in early August to address the significant low intensity bias in tropical cyclones).

It's clear that both the initial and final FV3GFS improve the track, relative to the ops GFS. The original FV3GFS configuration clearly had a significant weak intensity bias. It's mitigated in the final configuration (change shown by the purple arrow), but beyond day 2, the FV3GFS still has a low intensity bias relative to the GFS. So your hunch that the FV3GFS is underdoing the intensity of Florence may be very much on the right track. That said, even though the composite stats don't reflect it, the GFS is prone to going crazy with the central pressure in the strongest storms (i.e. the sub 900 pressures in 2017 Irma forecasts and perhaps in some Florence runs).

-Geoff

On Mon, Sep 10, 2018 at 9:44 PM, Warren Blier <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

Jeff,

Great to see! Interesting to note dramatic difference between GFS and FV3 re both intensity and path of Florence as it approaches the Carolinas (see attached figs). We'll see. I'm attaching the corresponding ECMWF output for comparison. Personal hunch is that FV3 is way-underdoing the intensity but may be better (than the GFS) on the longer-term path.

Warren

--------------------------

Warren Blier, Ph.D.

Science and Operations Officer

National Weather Service

San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey Forecast Office

21 Grace Hopper Ave, Stop 5

Monterey, CA 93943-5505

831-656-1710 x224 or 831-656-1724

On Mon, Sep 10, 2018 at 4:49 PM, Jeffrey Craven - NOAA Federal <0000008037b22bcd-dmarc-request@listserv.albany.edu> wrote:

I know we have more important things to worry about with Florence.

But I don't want this to get lost....

It is early, but August 2018 500mb Height AC scores would put GFS FV3 as second best.

Definitely moving in the right direction! Hopefully this trend will continue.

JPC

Jeff Craven

Chief, Statistical Modeling Branch

National Weather Service, W/STI-12

Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL)

Room 10410, SSMC2

Silver Spring, MD 20910

(301) 427-9475 office

(816) 506-9783 cell/text

@jpcstorm

https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_home

To unsubscribe from the MAP list, click the following link and send the email generated:
MAP-SIGNOFF-REQUEST@LISTSERV.ALBANY.EDU

--
Warren Blier EMC Model Evaluation Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/emc-model-evaluation-group/home/-/message_boards/view_message/4821411 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

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