Email fromAndy E:
I have been watching the new GFS on the WR side by side web page -- initially the two models looked pretty much the same -- but now that the synoptic regime has become more active during the last week -- there are some notable differences - especially during the last 3-5 days
As a reminder
- I like to click on the Dprog/dt button -- upper left corner
- Then step through the animation by hand --
Note: as always -- please double check the times -- the data acquisition scripts to pull data from NCEP are not infallible
Question for NCEP: This is subjective feedback -- but some of the forecast solution bouncing around and differences between the two models is pretty significant.
- Please look at the surface and precip forecast fields, the new GFS model precipitation amounts can vary a lot run to run and be much different at times from the current GFS. The new GFS solutions seems to bounce around more than the op GFS version. I believe more than you can write off as natural model variability.
Some of the WR STID folks have noticed similar differences this week.
I am suspicious that the data assimilation first guess fields are more different (run to run) between the two models than we expected.
NCEP -- you have some better diagnostic tools...what is your interpretation? Is there an issue with moisture data assimilation?
Hopefully this gets a conversation started
