How do we use ForecastBuilder with the ForecastBuilder CRON?

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Joseph Moore, modified 8 Years ago.

How do we use ForecastBuilder with the ForecastBuilder CRON?

Youngling Posts: 72 Join Date: 11/1/13 Recent Posts

I must've missed this in the training, but when the ForecastBuilder CRON runs, it essentially runs "Step 1/2" for us. However, the job sheet then says to just do things like usual for PoWT - create PoT grids as needed and MergeWx. So we don't actually use the ForecastBuilder tool (as in Populate --> ForecastBuilder) when we're doing our twice-daily full forecast. So is ForecastBuilder mainly meant to be ran in the short term only? It seems like the tool and CRON idea were developed separately, and on our usual twice-daily forecasts (i.e. not in the short term/ESTF), we should be doing what we've always been doing - wait for SuperBlend to populate (albeit now a slightly longer timeframe and more grids), then edit/collaborate and MergeWx as neccessary. PoTCreatePrecip Types is created, but really it's just a rough draft if we touch pretty much any grid in the period 2 to day 7. In this case, why even waste the processing power for CreatePrecipTypes on the CRON if it almost always will need to be ran again as temps/winds/etc. are adjusted from the Superblend?

Andy Just, modified 8 Years ago.

RE: How do we use ForecastBuilder with the ForecastBuilder CRON?

Youngling Posts: 89 Join Date: 6/2/15 Recent Posts

Joseph,

ForecastBuilder certainly is a multi-faceted program. The CRON version strictly gives us the twice a day population of a common starting point, our proxy NBM dataset SuperBlend, for periods 2 - day 7. It also generates a first cut of SnowAmt/IceAccum based on the SuperBlend's environmental parameters. ForecastBuilder brings in a whole host of other capabilities:

Bring in databases such as Obs, CONSShort/ShortBlend for initializing/population for your forecast (mostly an ESTF thing)
Keep you in the framework of ensuring internal integrity of your forecast, even if you don't initialize anything. I.e. march yourself through grids like T, PoP, QPF, then onto the top-down grids, then accumulations, etc.
With the full version of ForecastBuilder, you have the ability to add ProbIcePresent, something the CRON does not add as it could produce high FAR of freezing rain in winter.
"Finalize" style checks to your forecast
Ability to expand on beyond Wx such as Aviation / FireWx grids

True that generating Snow/Ice may not be needed from the CRON, but the bonus is it allows everyone to start at a consistent point of Snow/Ice. It doesn't take long to do either, maybe 15-30 seconds tops.

Joseph Moore, modified 8 Years ago.

RE: How do we use ForecastBuilder with the ForecastBuilder CRON?

Youngling Posts: 72 Join Date: 11/1/13 Recent Posts

So with our twice-daily usual forecast, should we be running the ForecastBuilder tool (from the Populate menu) at all? Or say, if I make some changes to some of the "foundational" grids, is the idea that I then launch ForecastBuilder and run it from step X? (Or am I okay to just do things like I've always done and run the necessary PoWT tools?)

What I'm getting at is: when should I be running the tool "manually" over the course of a normal day?

Thanks for the help! Just trying to better understand how we should be using this!

Andy Just, modified 8 Years ago.

RE: How do we use ForecastBuilder with the ForecastBuilder CRON?

Youngling Posts: 89 Join Date: 6/2/15 Recent Posts

Joseph,

Generally the idea is to start up with ForecastBuilder if you are making grid changes, even the foundation grids, because then the procedure will help ensure everything gets updated to reflect those changes. What would be a really cool infrastructure change, which relates back to something that was supposed to be developed in GFE called iTools, would be say after T updated, your RH, p-types, SnowAmt, IceAccum and Wx would all automatically update.

I think too if you get a chance, the latest Job Sheets released last Friday will really help in gaining understanding of how to work with ForecastBuilder both on a daily basis and during complex winter weather events. You'll have a WES-like database for going through the Job Sheets and experimentation.

Joseph Moore, modified 8 Years ago.

RE: How do we use ForecastBuilder with the ForecastBuilder CRON?

Youngling Posts: 72 Join Date: 11/1/13 Recent Posts

Alright so I tried what you suggested for my long term shift today. I made changes to my "foundational" grids (with collaboration of course!), re-ran Diurnal and RunTd/RH/ApparentT/etc. and then launched ForecastBuilder, starting at Step 2 --- err, "Step 3" on the cheat sheet/training, the 2nd item in the list on the initial FB GUI - "Top Down Grids." I will say I actually prefer this way over the CRON making my MaxTwAloft/ProbRefreezeSleet because now I get to choose whether or not to fill them. (I don't know if this is a bug, but NOT selecting any of the Top Down options did not delete the grids that were there before - my expectation was that because I didn't select them they would be deleted, since the GUI says "for simple rain or snow scenarios, skip this step".)

I go through the tool with the defaults for the rest of the time since we just have some light rain/snow possible through the entire forecast period. I know there are integrity checks going on - what happens when a problem is encountered? Does the tool just force it to work or does it actually alert the forecaster to fix the issue?

Overall I think I get it now. I wish the training would've ran through a "normal" scenario like how we're actually using it for our routine forecasts, with the CRON creating foundational and top down grids. I went through the 5 hours of video training and I just see the team added the cases you mention to the training curriculum on the LMS (so now I'm in that purgatory state of "finished" in the LMS but not completed when I open the actual course... haha). I'll see if our GFE focal point can install it and if I have any time to go through it. I spent my first X shift in nearly two years focused on the 5 hours of video training, and since I consider myself a fairly experienced to advanced GFE user it's a little frustrating to have gone through 5 hours of training and not "get" it, despite my previous experience with PoWT.