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RE: Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Temperature issues

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PS
Pat Spoden, modified 6 Years ago.

Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Temperature issues

Youngling Posts: 3 Join Date: 9/20/12 Recent Posts

The model blends (superblend and NBM) produce what we think are too cold temperatures over these 2 lakes in WKY and WTN. URMA analysis has temperatures as low as 69 over the lakes early this morning, whereas lake temperatures at the dams are 89. I was at Lake Barkley last week (granted, in a bay) and the water was very warm, like bathwater. Attached are URMA analysis for today and NBM forecast for Wednesday morning.

Attachments:

Attachment

Attachment

JC
Jacob Carley, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Temperature issues

Youngling Posts: 69 Join Date: 12/17/14 Recent Posts
Hi Pat,

Thanks for sharing.

Lake temperatures are a definite challenge.  We've noticed this cool bias as well.

RTMA/URMA obtains its lake temperatures directly from the background field use in the analysis, which is a combination of 3km NAM nest and HRRR for the CONUS.  The 2m Temps are only changed if there are nearby observations, which is certainly not always the case.

I know the HRRR team is looking into improving the inland lake temperatures for the next HRRR upgrade (HRRRv4) and I've cc'd a couple of those folks here in case they may wish to comment.

Thanks again,
Jacob

On Tue, Jul 17, 2018 at 4:10 AM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

The model blends (superblend and NBM) produce what we think are too cold temperatures over these 2 lakes in WKY and WTN. URMA analysis has temperatures as low as 69 over the lakes early this morning, whereas lake temperatures at the dams are 89. I was at Lake Barkley last week (granted, in a bay) and the water was very warm, like bathwater. Attached are URMA analysis for today and NBM forecast for Wednesday morning.


--
Pat Spoden RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/4449509 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

PS
Pat Spoden, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Temperature issues

Youngling Posts: 3 Join Date: 9/20/12 Recent Posts
Jacob,
Could we not get the temperatures from satellite? We do send out the water temperature from the dams each day as well.

Thanks,
Pat

On Tue, Jul 17, 2018 at 12:50 PM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Hi Pat,

Thanks for sharing.

Lake temperatures are a definite challenge.  We've noticed this cool bias as well.

RTMA/URMA obtains its lake temperatures directly from the background field use in the analysis, which is a combination of 3km NAM nest and HRRR for the CONUS.  The 2m Temps are only changed if there are nearby observations, which is certainly not always the case.

I know the HRRR team is looking into improving the inland lake temperatures for the next HRRR upgrade (HRRRv4) and I've cc'd a couple of those folks here in case they may wish to comment.

Thanks again,
Jacob

On Tue, Jul 17, 2018 at 4:10 AM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

The model blends (superblend and NBM) produce what we think are too cold temperatures over these 2 lakes in WKY and WTN. URMA analysis has temperatures as low as 69 over the lakes early this morning, whereas lake temperatures at the dams are 89. I was at Lake Barkley last week (granted, in a bay) and the water was very warm, like bathwater. Attached are URMA analysis for today and NBM forecast for Wednesday morning.


--
Pat Spoden RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/4449509 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Jacob Carley RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/4453247 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov



--
Science & Operations Officer
National Weather Service Paducah, KY
270.744.6440x766
http://weather.gov/pah
Twitter - @NWSPaducah
YouTube - http://www.youtube.com/NWSPaducah
SL
Steven Levine, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Temperature issues

Youngling Posts: 174 Join Date: 11/13/14 Recent Posts
Pat,

I have to defer to the HRRR folks as to how they may bring in water temperature in the future.

There is a current project to incorporate satellite derived temperature data into RTMA/URMA in data sparse areas.  That is focused on Alaska right now, but there is potential to use this in other areas.

In what format/type do you send out water temperature from the dams?  I can check to see if we get it.

Steve

On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 11:05 AM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Jacob,
Could we not get the temperatures from satellite? We do send out the water temperature from the dams each day as well.

Thanks,
Pat

On Tue, Jul 17, 2018 at 12:50 PM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Hi Pat,

Thanks for sharing.

Lake temperatures are a definite challenge.  We've noticed this cool bias as well.

RTMA/URMA obtains its lake temperatures directly from the background field use in the analysis, which is a combination of 3km NAM nest and HRRR for the CONUS.  The 2m Temps are only changed if there are nearby observations, which is certainly not always the case.

I know the HRRR team is looking into improving the inland lake temperatures for the next HRRR upgrade (HRRRv4) and I've cc'd a couple of those folks here in case they may wish to comment.

Thanks again,
Jacob

On Tue, Jul 17, 2018 at 4:10 AM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

The model blends (superblend and NBM) produce what we think are too cold temperatures over these 2 lakes in WKY and WTN. URMA analysis has temperatures as low as 69 over the lakes early this morning, whereas lake temperatures at the dams are 89. I was at Lake Barkley last week (granted, in a bay) and the water was very warm, like bathwater. Attached are URMA analysis for today and NBM forecast for Wednesday morning.


--
Pat Spoden RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/4449509 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Jacob Carley RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/4453247 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov



--
Science & Operations Officer
National Weather Service Paducah, KY
270.744.6440x766
http://weather.gov/pah
Twitter - @NWSPaducah
YouTube - http://www.youtube.com/NWSPaducah

--
Pat Spoden RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/4491425 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov

PS
Pat Spoden, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Temperature issues

Youngling Posts: 3 Join Date: 9/20/12 Recent Posts
Steve,
We send them out in an RVA around 15z daily when the temperatures are available.

Pat

On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 12:49 PM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Pat,

I have to defer to the HRRR folks as to how they may bring in water temperature in the future.

There is a current project to incorporate satellite derived temperature data into RTMA/URMA in data sparse areas.  That is focused on Alaska right now, but there is potential to use this in other areas.

In what format/type do you send out water temperature from the dams?  I can check to see if we get it.

Steve

On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 11:05 AM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Jacob,
Could we not get the temperatures from satellite? We do send out the water temperature from the dams each day as well.

Thanks,
Pat

On Tue, Jul 17, 2018 at 12:50 PM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Hi Pat,

Thanks for sharing.

Lake temperatures are a definite challenge.  We've noticed this cool bias as well.

RTMA/URMA obtains its lake temperatures directly from the background field use in the analysis, which is a combination of 3km NAM nest and HRRR for the CONUS.  The 2m Temps are only changed if there are nearby observations, which is certainly not always the case.

I know the HRRR team is looking into improving the inland lake temperatures for the next HRRR upgrade (HRRRv4) and I've cc'd a couple of those folks here in case they may wish to comment.

Thanks again,
Jacob

On Tue, Jul 17, 2018 at 4:10 AM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

The model blends (superblend and NBM) produce what we think are too cold temperatures over these 2 lakes in WKY and WTN. URMA analysis has temperatures as low as 69 over the lakes early this morning, whereas lake temperatures at the dams are 89. I was at Lake Barkley last week (granted, in a bay) and the water was very warm, like bathwater. Attached are URMA analysis for today and NBM forecast for Wednesday morning.


--
Pat Spoden RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/4449509 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Jacob Carley RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/4453247 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov



--
Science & Operations Officer
National Weather Service Paducah, KY
270.744.6440x766
http://weather.gov/pah
Twitter - @NWSPaducah
YouTube - http://www.youtube.com/NWSPaducah

--
Pat Spoden RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/4491425 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Steven Levine RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/4492680 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov



--
Science & Operations Officer
National Weather Service Paducah, KY
270.744.6440x766
http://weather.gov/pah
Twitter - @NWSPaducah
YouTube - http://www.youtube.com/NWSPaducah
JC
Jacob Carley, modified 6 Years ago.

RE: Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Temperature issues

Youngling Posts: 69 Join Date: 12/17/14 Recent Posts
Hi Pat,

Yes - satellite-derived lake surface temps are a possibility, but requires more R&D [based on my current understanding].  Right now there are some ongoing discussions with colleagues in NESDIS on this very topic that could assist with this (~2020 time frame)

Thanks,
-Jacob


On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 9:05 AM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Jacob,
Could we not get the temperatures from satellite? We do send out the water temperature from the dams each day as well.

Thanks,
Pat

On Tue, Jul 17, 2018 at 12:50 PM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:
Hi Pat,

Thanks for sharing.

Lake temperatures are a definite challenge.  We've noticed this cool bias as well.

RTMA/URMA obtains its lake temperatures directly from the background field use in the analysis, which is a combination of 3km NAM nest and HRRR for the CONUS.  The 2m Temps are only changed if there are nearby observations, which is certainly not always the case.

I know the HRRR team is looking into improving the inland lake temperatures for the next HRRR upgrade (HRRRv4) and I've cc'd a couple of those folks here in case they may wish to comment.

Thanks again,
Jacob

On Tue, Jul 17, 2018 at 4:10 AM, VLab Notifications <VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov> wrote:

The model blends (superblend and NBM) produce what we think are too cold temperatures over these 2 lakes in WKY and WTN. URMA analysis has temperatures as low as 69 over the lakes early this morning, whereas lake temperatures at the dams are 89. I was at Lake Barkley last week (granted, in a bay) and the water was very warm, like bathwater. Attached are URMA analysis for today and NBM forecast for Wednesday morning.


--
Pat Spoden RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/discussions-forums-/-/message_boards/view_message/4449509 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov


--
Jacob Carley RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/4453247 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov



--
Science & Operations Officer
National Weather Service Paducah, KY
270.744.6440x766
http://weather.gov/pah
Twitter - @NWSPaducah
YouTube - http://www.youtube.com/NWSPaducah

--
Pat Spoden RTMA/URMA Discussion Group Virtual Lab Forum http://vlab.noaa.gov/web/715073/home/-/message_boards/view_message/4491425 VLab.Notifications@noaa.gov