Minnesota Runoff Risk Forecast Status

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-19 00Z

2026-04-19T02:32:08Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041900 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 28dda71ce37568fd906cb8313ec9e5b3

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-18 18Z

2026-04-18T19:32:06Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041818 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: b72e92e497812fa7297440dc264cd4e7

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [3]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-18 12Z

2026-04-18T12:57:32Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041812 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: edeb16e49413732056515c018dfc623f

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-18 06Z

2026-04-18T09:31:46Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041806 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 0b9c179cc01fc44ce453dc5a290899df

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-18 00Z

2026-04-18T02:31:51Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041800 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 968e039e787c8c1328f75796212cd470

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-17 18Z

2026-04-17T19:31:40Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041718 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: f32178ff5d631e9fa77a72ce83313940

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [3]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-17 12Z

2026-04-17T13:32:40Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041712 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: b4c96eb696bfe27fd490d4df2ea207f6

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [3]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-17 06Z

2026-04-17T09:32:42Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041706 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 763bf10abcd642e1a86eecea63633e44

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-17 00Z

2026-04-17T02:32:46Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041700 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: e9583ac81799e602aacf078f861875ae

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-16 18Z

2026-04-16T19:32:56Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041618 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: b5dc69feadbc0ace12a1986d730fd932

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-16 12Z

2026-04-16T13:33:02Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041612 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 50ec1d32039a9e9c508bb2d95b0d6b63

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-16 06Z

2026-04-16T09:32:45Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041606 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: ad2c9cb77344ff88b8a26c9c75cbfb66

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-16 00Z

2026-04-16T02:32:49Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041600 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 81ed5c4aa09c9399e9c2926376302332

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-15 18Z

2026-04-15T19:32:27Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041518 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 6106ab9456bfa5406997d09a04b8c58c

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-15 12Z

2026-04-15T13:32:44Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041512 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: bb5b995fe5f61cd64807f91df23fc186

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-15 06Z

2026-04-15T09:32:43Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041506 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: f064dbd13b328417755bbb2b8f7bc269

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-15 00Z

2026-04-15T02:32:43Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041500 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 35694d0c39b455c75ec71fb8ef88082d

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-14 18Z

2026-04-14T19:32:35Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041418 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: c2a40b0452662ffacff879b799af5e5a

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-14 12Z

2026-04-14T13:33:39Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041412 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 83440cb6ba575bb92837c046ffa34270

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-14 06Z

2026-04-14T09:33:01Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041406 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 2d3995dabf6a4d2c30fe4253f3a8b6e4

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-14 00Z

2026-04-14T02:32:45Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041400 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: f2cbda6bda28d5b5cf4d1a9e607cef49

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-13 18Z

2026-04-13T19:33:23Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041318 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 3a7427fef8e717f9cdce37720c9d355d

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-13 12Z

2026-04-13T13:32:44Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041312 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 164d246d7cf4fcd6e3d79af7551beac3

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-13 06Z

2026-04-13T09:32:49Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041306 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 12a3b098ef68dd4c9052de083f2f4880

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-13 00Z

2026-04-13T02:32:40Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041300 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 5278b655c2b4c6b429f16c5d9122c31c

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-12 18Z

2026-04-12T19:32:52Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041218 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 37beeebe3fca705e781243a811dee060

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-12 12Z

2026-04-12T13:34:14Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041212 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 5d6852012a14b3722d1d05255bea79e4

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-12 06Z

2026-04-12T09:32:59Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041206 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 9764a480d76ee5d5ba55f7e89e91cede

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-12 00Z

2026-04-12T02:32:54Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041200 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 237fe13cfda7db76e9ddda55db628d4f

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-11 18Z

2026-04-11T19:32:40Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041118 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: b125be970b87bd642eb54953a0bc2919

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-11 12Z

2026-04-11T13:32:48Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041112 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 3f5b54fd6d33abc9918685bdde30e635

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-11 06Z

2026-04-11T09:32:56Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041106 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 35d68773a672514d8b79e57589690183

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-11 00Z

2026-04-11T02:32:56Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041100 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: dc9d19e7ea34b0d849d4aebffae919ab

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-10 18Z

2026-04-10T19:32:45Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041018 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: f020337e6b690cf072eea261f1fca0db

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-10 12Z

2026-04-10T13:32:54Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041012 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 6177276377269e4701ddf97841f45398

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-10 06Z

2026-04-10T09:32:52Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041006 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 16758bec884a6fe9a5533014299f7a92

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-10 00Z

2026-04-10T02:32:47Z

10-day summary of MN 2026041000 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: b977a3211095568d6955eca75ac48147

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-09 18Z

2026-04-09T19:32:43Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040918 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 339bae0f09c8641543ebbbd23ab17959

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-09 12Z

2026-04-09T13:36:19Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040912 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 3a172318c39aa53a222958afd700d419

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-09 06Z

2026-04-09T09:34:46Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040906 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 43dc87042b0f5c73696b00f5c0ab9301

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-09 00Z

2026-04-09T02:32:57Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040900 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: bf0185b248590e82b6194dd060e74abf

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-08 18Z

2026-04-08T19:32:50Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040818 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 0a450b3ac6c2c15cccafa4dc7cb9a02a

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-08 12Z

2026-04-08T13:32:48Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040812 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: d0ce2954b879e4b9125e1f175258b954

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-08 06Z

2026-04-08T09:32:53Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040806 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 8fedb420b90a23b829272b0c6bc9c480

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-08 00Z

2026-04-08T02:32:48Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040800 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 1b10494f814c92944126cef87626ee68

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-07 18Z

2026-04-07T19:32:32Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040718 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: ce636b168cd56387915127cf80fc9d2f

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-07 12Z

2026-04-07T13:34:31Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040712 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: dd26d8cee4fb29401f534dcb77fa12a4

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-07 06Z

2026-04-07T09:33:26Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040706 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: c274552de840e1f4f7327c94e5c31dae

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-07 00Z

2026-04-07T02:32:47Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040700 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 9541d62addfa44f6ce81ea16d33317bb

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

MN RRAF v2.1 2026-04-06 18Z

2026-04-06T19:32:44Z

10-day summary of MN 2026040618 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 702d2af732de6ee5f4e02b5fe4c69b79

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected