New York Runoff Risk Forecast Status

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-15 00Z

2026-10-15T01:32:09Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101500 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 3ec3aa83025795cc62ea5317aca901a7

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-14 18Z

2026-10-14T18:57:46Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101418 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 3a79addf25c5517cf084ce3a88304454

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-14 12Z

2026-10-14T12:32:20Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101412 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: be9e4c8091691401dff42e2dfd629200

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-14 06Z

2026-10-14T09:11:45Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101406 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 8f1863bef370a15665b1aafc8d69fc9b

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-14 00Z

2026-10-14T01:32:22Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101400 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 60959aca4b49dbb91d3b5cfd58727bfa

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-13 18Z

2026-10-13T18:57:34Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101318 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: e8e16b381c739407c15e3ef525ca101a

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-13 12Z

2026-10-13T12:57:35Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101312 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: fbac86a51f1023dcbe4fb9bf2418d81f

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-13 06Z

2026-10-13T08:32:50Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101306 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: ce36f7d1c4a59511345487b6c397cd06

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-13 00Z

2026-10-13T01:32:23Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101300 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 461ad708dc3fbae242ed3d553dccc9c5

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-12 18Z

2026-10-12T18:57:51Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101218 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 271fb5d6dc38dacc68ab2a53cddffbbd

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-12 12Z

2026-10-12T12:32:30Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101212 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 1aab0b950c294800a7a69b3528f372dc

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-12 06Z

2026-10-12T08:32:29Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101206 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: e85a43d2c74b04cca25404a26798747c

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-12 00Z

2026-10-12T01:32:33Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101200 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 47695600423e07d70b6cb7ee5d5614c4

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-11 18Z

2026-10-11T18:57:37Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101118 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 80231bbb35cf0e2051e2c381cc64c193

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-11 12Z

2026-10-11T12:32:28Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101112 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 23bc4d87a169ced25302713d4fc7668a

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-11 06Z

2026-10-11T08:32:30Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101106 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: bfc6f5c15289a5aa0d3cfdee7c950ad2

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-11 00Z

2026-10-11T01:32:28Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101100 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 9da0decb68b833880b9f04b65507e256

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-10 18Z

2026-10-10T18:57:41Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101018 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 5a53067afd7ab96eafe39d24db321e41

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-10 12Z

2026-10-10T12:32:41Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101012 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 0430794ae14d60281ac1a78a6a7b4293

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-10 06Z

2026-10-10T08:32:36Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101006 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 861c5f4e6742c1379c37c4e85bafdc53

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-10 00Z

2026-10-10T01:32:36Z

10-day summary of NY 2026101000 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: c3b4519020f353d98b194bf395db5520

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-09 18Z

2026-10-09T18:57:56Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100918 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 53eaadbbe3b42f48974917b249c55817

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-09 12Z

2026-10-09T12:32:29Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100912 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: d08f28fd74a2d0e1c40ff2a5a50edc8f

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-09 06Z

2026-10-09T08:57:40Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100906 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: d5eb643f713582d0826d3bfad524165a

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-09 00Z

2026-10-09T01:32:52Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100900 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 703ac1268e3d58d66783107f48f39d17

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-08 18Z

2026-10-08T18:57:58Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100818 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 88f37b5effef78246a72748f15c565ce

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-08 12Z

2026-10-08T12:32:32Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100812 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: bf7cac3fd1a76f3268918b67cf2f4df8

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-08 06Z

2026-10-08T09:05:43Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100806 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: b9a1edcad9d8b4d2c81ac9a867da43e3

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-08 00Z

2026-10-08T01:32:28Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100800 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: caebe6f72ec26baf60f55abdbf1e0cee

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-07 18Z

2026-10-07T18:57:37Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100718 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: ac3028368adbaf79d9dc2cf69876d6a7

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [3]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [3]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-07 12Z

2026-10-07T12:32:40Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100712 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 44ddda423d330a821e3ae4b05a67b64c

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-07 06Z

2026-10-07T09:07:48Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100706 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: f32466e955af8e16107574982d60150b

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-07 00Z

2026-10-07T01:32:17Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100700 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 009af38746020445826c9369ff666d33

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-06 18Z

2026-10-06T18:58:03Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100618 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: cfa0dd6c405917b15a8c8fbbaf82ce75

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-06 12Z

2026-10-06T12:32:36Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100612 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 8267a607b53ff26127cf866bb727b43b

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-06 06Z

2026-10-06T09:14:30Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100606 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: f187a00e367d0c1a0bfbef23929290db

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-06 00Z

2026-10-06T01:32:34Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100600 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: dc1a4ed5f77781640481b0d96d83db28

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-05 18Z

2026-10-05T18:57:50Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100518 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 925a6e2f505864749f7466580775a340

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-05 12Z

2026-10-05T12:32:17Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100512 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 7eedf4d4ec3ef997c3671e4340b3aab0

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-05 06Z

2026-10-05T09:00:28Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100506 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: d728dd0189a24127d52b349b7d20f0b2

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-05 00Z

2026-10-05T01:32:35Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100500 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: dd1e6aa515e5769aee7bb5b4d84ebd7c

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-04 18Z

2026-10-04T18:57:35Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100418 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 99cee7d43c8f56b05f87c7ce3f72f2b6

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-04 12Z

2026-10-04T12:32:17Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100412 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 0d9171701fe35c855886fdaae07dfe34

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-04 06Z

2026-10-04T08:33:05Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100406 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: d40176298aee2dc3ed5675a28501e603

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-04 00Z

2026-10-04T01:32:49Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100400 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 0f55b23658ed88349e9743fad39abc8e

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-03 18Z

2026-10-03T18:57:45Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100318 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 75701a165627b61bf04c0c7e3d4e3100

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-03 12Z

2026-10-03T12:32:22Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100312 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 7bfb4886b3c68b2b6d9edb5523ea163b

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-03 06Z

2026-10-03T08:32:20Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100306 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 75a5951ae4a853ff55e4518f88b4e834

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [0]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [0]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-03 00Z

2026-10-03T01:32:28Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100300 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: 51ea0b22d4ddcfeda3f975aa161ce705

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [1]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [1]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected

NY RRAF v2.1 2026-10-02 18Z

2026-10-02T18:57:52Z

10-day summary of NY 2026100218 v2.1 Runoff Risk forecast run
• These images show daily model output converted to geoTIFFs for the 10-day runoff risk run
• Columns represent forecast day 1 through 10-moving from left to right
• Hourly model output has been accumulated to daily accumulations or averages (local midnight-to-midnight

The md5 checksum values match on the NCRFC and SFTP servers: f00ceb1db9f46fb4cde6f1ae19048721

Forcings Status when this model run was started:
• Number of Missing Observed RTMA Temperature grids: [2]
• Number of Missing Observed Precip (QPE) grids: [2]
• Number of Forecast Temperature grids present (should be more than 264, max is 365: [365]
• Number of Forecast QPF grids (6-hr) present (should be 28): [28]

Description of the Rows:
Row 1: Daily Maximum Air Temperature(F)
Row 2: Daily Minimum Air Temperature (F)
Row 3: Daily Average Simulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial SWE conditions at T-zero
Row 4: Daily Average Simulated Snow Depth (in) from Snow-17 model
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Snow Depth conditions at T-zero
Row 5: Daily Average Simulated Soil Temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
• Day-zero Grid: Initial Soitl Temperature conditions at T-zero
Row 6: Daily Winter Conditions Check (Frozen Soil/Snow): check if avg daily snow depth >= 1" and/or ground is frozen
Row 7: Daily Precipitation (in) [note: 7 days of QPF used]
• Day-zero Grid: Previous 24-hrs of precip ending at T-zero
Row 8: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) (in) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to the SAC-HT soil model

Row 9: Daily Potential Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• The 24-hr accumulation of SAC-HT runoff components considered for Runoff Risk
Row 10: Daily Runoff Risk Runoff (RRRO) (in)
• Each grid cell uses Row 9 value if daily RAIM > 0

Runoff Risk Category Descriptions:
• Runoff Risk Percentiles (RRRO), are rounded to every 5th percentile between 0 and 95th percentile
• RRRO is created by comparing grid cell value in Row 10 against monthly percentiles for that given cell and cross references by defined category thresholds listed below
• No Risk: RRRO percentile < 30th Percentile
• Low Risk: 30th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 60th Percentile (Yellow)
• Mdt Risk: 60th Percentile <= RRRO percentile < 90th Percentile (Orange)
• High Risk: RRRO percentile >= 90th Percentile (Red)

Special Cases:
• No runoff generated however (90th P <= daily RAIM percentile < 95th P) --> RRRO value assigned as 31 (Low Risk)
• No runoff generated however daily RAIM percentile >= 95th P --> RRRO value assigned as 61 (Mdt Risk)

Risk with Winter Conditions (Row 6) Descriptions:
• Blue: Winter conditions exist however no runoff is forecast
• Grid value assigned as 110
• Light Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions, however the RRRO Percentile is below the Low Risk level (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 115
• Dark Purple: Runoff occurs on winter conditions and the the RRRO Percentile is >= the Low Risk percentile (30th P)
• Grid value assigned as 120
• Light Gray: RRRO exists without winter conditions but the the RRRO percentile is below Low Risk (30th P)

Row 11: v2.1 Daily Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions considered
• This grid only considers the risk for this particular day

Row 12: v2.1 Runoff Risk with Winter Conditions with future look-ahead
• These grids show the highest threat in the next three days for normal risk (no winter conditions expected), or up through remaining forecast days when runoff on winter conditions is simulated

The order of precedence in these look ahead grids is:
(1) Dark Purple: Runoff Risk above Low Risk on Winter conditions
(2) Light Purple: Runoff Risk below Low Risk on Winter conditions
(3) Normal Risk (High, Moderate, Low) with no Winter conditions
(4) Blue: Winter conditions exist but no runoff expected