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URMA Monthly MinT Errors at KTLH and KCTY

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Don Van Dyke, modified 2 Years ago.

URMA Monthly MinT Errors at KTLH and KCTY

Youngling Posts: 6 Join Date: 4/12/16 Recent Posts

Greetings,

My latest local feedback involves examining some MinT errors during October across the Florida Big Bend, specifically at KTLH and KCTY.  The slides can be found here.  In the case of KCTY, URMA had a larger bias when verified against the METAR than NDFD, GMOS, or NBM through the first couple of days of the forecast.  In addition, both locations are frequently dipping below the NBM 5th percentile MinT on strong radiational cooling nights.  I show a one week period in October as an example in the slides.  GMOS seems to understand this behavior the best.

-- 
Don Van Dyke
Lead Forecaster
WSR-88D, Storm Data, and Verification Focal Points
NWS Tallahassee, FL
(850) 942-8833
"It's all connected!" --Manifest
Young-Joon Kim, modified 2 Years ago.

RE: URMA Monthly MinT Errors at KTLH and KCTY

Youngling Posts: 12 Join Date: 11/15/16 Recent Posts

Bias due to radiational cooling (resulting in cold pools) is a popular source of error. A serious, recurring example is found in Canaan Valley, WV. We have analyzed a couple of cases (10 & 11) in our NBM case evaluation report.  

-yj (AFS11)