hi GEFSv12 SOO evaluation team-
I've finished drafting the assignments spreadsheet
for all of the
GEFSv12 retrospective cases. The
assignments are based on the relevance to your agency's
mission or the event having significant impacts within your
NWS region. (And thanks to Emily for offering to review some
of the low skill cases which didn't necessarily cause major
impacts in any region). If I've incorrectly assigned any
cases, please let me know.
For each case for which you are listed first or
are the only person listed, I'd like you to go through each of
the 10 cycles for review and assign ratings on the
GEFSv12 Case Assessment Form, as we
discussed at our last tag-up. Adding comments on the form
is optional. Some points to note:
1) If you are listed second or third (with no slashes
between the names), this case will be of interest to you, but
please don't make it one of the cases you go through first;
it's optional. If, however, names are separated with a
slash, I think that all listed people should assess the case.
(Example: Hurricane Harvey is of equal interest to NHC and WPC).
2) As we discussed on the Friday call, the
criteria for your ratings is up to you You have plenty of
parameters to review, and you have means, probabilities,
spreads, and low/spaghetti plots. Consider in each case
whether the run of GEFSv11 or GEFSv12 provided more useful
information, from the viewpoint of a forecaster.
3) This is a big assignment. If you can't get
through all of your cases, let me know, and I'll find someone
to take the extra ones. This team, however, was advertised
as a high intensity project with a significant commitment, so
I'm going to keep my expectations high. :)
4) That said, if you get through all of your cases
and would like to do a few more, go for it! Feel free to
choose any case of interest.
5) I have no objection to you dividing up the
cases with other people in your region/center.
6) In addition to submitting ratings, all
participants will be asked to generate some slides showing
important examples and overall impressions (good and bad), so
I recommend extracting images and making notes as you go
through the cases.
7) Ratings will be due by COB April 3.
We'll expect some short presentations from team members on
Friday afternoon calls starting in a few weeks.
Let me know if you have any questions or
concerns, and thank you.
-Geoff
