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[ Sharing ] Predictability Limits article, and relation to last night's eve

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Jack Settelmaier, modified 6 Years ago.

[ Sharing ] Predictability Limits article, and relation to last night's eve

Youngling Posts: 29 Join Date: 11/2/12 Recent Posts
Good morning,

Wanted to share an article passed to me.  It's from a Penn State (PSU) professor leading their ADAPT Center, and speaks to the limits of predictability.  It's a short read.

Although not directly related, I thought I'd share some output related to predictability from last night's north Texas-centered event.  

Despite a dearth of LARGE hail reports, the event was highlighted rather well, not only by SPC and our local offices via DSS, it was also suggested in model guidance, as shown by both 
a) the GFS-based Chiclets, as shown in this image for FWR's domain, and
b) the CFS-based chiclets, which had some indication even 18 days! (not 10) out!
"Verification" images (with reports overlain) should update to the below site, once today's CFS run gets processed after ~10am.

image.png
--
Jack Settelmaier
(NRAP) Technical Lead, NOAA Big Data Project
Digital Techniques Meteorologist
NOAA/NWS, Southern Region HQ
Fort Worth, TX 
Work: 682 703 3685

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