Two more cases from Rob Cox at CYS.
Hello,
This
comparison will be examining 2 cases both of which
occurred in June 2018. The first case occurred on evening
of June 2nd when a squall line of thunderstorms moved
through central Nebraska. Both the GFS/FV3 did a good job
depicting this potential complex of thunderstorms on the
00Z run which verified well on MRMS radar loop. However,
the FV3 did a much better job in handling the convective
cold pool as this complex of storms moved through. In
fact, the FV3 showed temperatures dropping into the 60s
after the passage of the squall line which was verified on
the Metar site ORD. The GFS seemed to miss this cold pool
and kept 2 meter temperatures in the 70s and 80s.
The
second case occurred on June 19th. In this case, both the
FV3/GFS initialized a closed upper level over the Pacific
Northwest on the 00Z run. However, there were some
significant differences in each initialization. The GFS
seemed to initialize the 00Z 500mb upper air analysis very
well. On the other hand, the FV3 initialized the closed
upper level low a bit further west and stronger than what
was depicted on the 00Z upper air analysis. The GFS also
did a better job handling the upper level low
12hr forecast based on the 12z upper air analysis, while
the FV3 tended to keep the upper level low a bit further
west and stronger. This caused some significant
differences in the QPF over the mountains of western
Wyoming. The FV3 projected 2 to 4 inches of
precipitation over the mountains by June 19th at 12z,
while the GFS predicted very light amounts. The final
results from the MRMS 24hr QPE displayed little if any
precipitation at 12z.
--
Rob Cox
NWS CYS SOO
1301 Airport Pkwy.
Cheyenne, WY 82001
(307) 772-2468 x766